Tornado and Hail in Missouri, December 5, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
508 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Strong to isolated severe storms tonight south of I-44.

2. Cooler and drier weather early next week - Elevated Fire threat.

3. Another warm up likely by late week.

4. Additional precip chances next weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

It was a warm and breezy afternoon as widespread clear skies
have allowed for mixing of higher winds to the surface. Wind gusts to
40mph have been observed so far. Temperatures were in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Big changes are on the horizon however, as a
strong cold front was currently working its way southeast through
central Kansas.

Storm Potential Tonight: The cold front will likely enter the
northwest CWA by 6-7pm. The airmass currently is capped and will
likely remain capped as the front enters the area. Strong lift,
associated with mid level disturbances to the north and south of
the area, will allow for convection to develop as the front nears
the Interstate 44 corridor as early as 8pm. 12Z HREF analysis
suggests that updraft probabilities will increase to the southeast
of Interstate 44 as the front moves through. Updraft helicities
are strongest from the Missouri-Arkansas border and points south.

RAP forecast soundings from Branson to West Plains are consistent
in showing about 1000j/kg of ML cape, 40kts of 0-6km shear, and
steep mid level lapse rates. Therefore the ingredients are there
for a few strong to severe storms. The low level hodograph shows
a southwest to west flow, which should keep the tornado threat
very low. Higher QLCS potential with more organized storms looks
to remain just south of the area. Storms will be fast moving with
most areas seeing less than 0.50 in of rainfall. Storms will be
out of the area by 1-2am.

A strong cold front will usher in dry and cold air overnight, with
most locations seeing wind gusts up to 35 mph and temps in the 30s
by sunrise Monday. HREF cloud data suggests that skies should
remain partly cloudy during the day, and with strong cold air
advection, highs will struggle to warm into the lower to middle
40s. Lower humidity and gusty winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Zonal to slightly northwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday into
the mid week period. A weak disturbance moves into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture looks to be limited, with
the NBM only showing a 10-15 percent chance for measurable precip.
More than likely only a few flurries or sprinkles will occur with
this system.

A steady rise in temperatures looks likely as we head to the end
of the week. Ensemble cluster analysis shows good consensus in
another mid level ridge developing over the central US. NBM
temperatures support 50s Wednesday and 60s Thursday and Friday.
The flow turns more southwesterly on Friday, with cluster analysis
showing the potential for max temps to reach 70 degrees. This is
also seen in the 75th percentile of NBM guidance.

Next Weekend: While ensembles are in decent agreement that a upper
level trough will develop across the Rockies, there is
disagreement in the timing and structure of the wave as it ejects
into the Plains. At this time, NBM probabilities for precip are
highest across the southeast half of the area Saturday into
Sunday(40-60 percent). This also matches the ensemble cluster
analysis and CIPS extended analogs. Current probabilities for any
measurable snow are quite low at this time (20 percent). NBM
temperatures generally keep highs in the 40s to around 50 with
lows in the 30s during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 453 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Current models show a strong cold front pushing through the
region this evening after 00Z, bringing a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly at KBBG around 03Z. Cannot rule out a storm
at KSGF, although chances are low at this point. Current southwest
winds will shift behind the front towards a more northwesterly
direction, and gusts up to 30 kts will be likely into Monday. VFR
flight conditions look to persist through the rest of the TAF
period, however visibilities and ceilings could lower with the
stronger storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Schwartz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
732 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
732 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight as a cold front
moves into the area. Locations south of Interstate 44 have the
highest chances for these storms after 8pm. A few storms may
produce large hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph, especially closer to the Missouri Arkansas
state line.

Gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph are likely overnight into
Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Monday as gusty
north winds combine with low humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight for areas near the
Missouri Arkansas state line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schwartz