A well-mixed thermodynamic profile to the southwest of the track of an intensifying area of low pressure across central Minnesota led to a brief pulse of very strong winds behind a cold front.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A well-mixed thermodynamic profile to the southwest of the track of an intensifying area of low pressure across central Minnesota led to a brief pulse of very strong winds behind a cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 3:51 PM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 351 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Low pressure at mid/upper levels continues to slide southeastward across ND this afternoon, dragging a cold front across our area. This front is apparent with the stratus deck moving east, as well as the winds beginning to shift to the northwest in central SD. Some areas are seeing some clearing and blue skies for the time being, but expect clouds to return later in the evening. Chamberlain, which has seen the most sun today, as warmed into lower 50s. Otherwise, temps are in the upper 20s and 30s. As mentioned for tonight, clouds build back in from the west. Dry conditions are expected tonight; however, trends in precip across western SD and central ND may needed to be monitored for low end pop chances as another piece of WAA and the upper low slides southeast. Lows tonight fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Of bigger concern tonight is increasing winds as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the surface low racing to the southeast across central MN. Additionally, soundings show increased mixing potential through the overnight, and winds aloft also increase. Both sustained winds and gusts could very briefly reach advisory criteria; however, have opted to forego a Wind Advisory at this time. Winds and gusts at advisory criteria will occur during the overnight hours, and should remain short-lived, moving across the area quickly. Generally, sustained winds increase to around 25- 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph with isolated higher. For Sunday, could see some briefing clearing for some, although clouds will be on the increase by mid afternoon. We'll "warm" into the mid 30s to lower 40s for most, with areas west of the MO River reaching the mid to upper 40s. Expect dry weather through the daylight hours Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Sunday evening into early Monday, model guidance shows an area of WAA sliding across the Dakotas and into MN along a very subtle 700 mb wave. Although not aligning perfectly in space and time, there may be enough frontogenesis and vorticity with the WAA, as well as moisture, to see some precipitation during the overnight hours. Soundings show a bit of a mixed bag of precip across the area, but would lean to more snow or possibly rain than any other precipitation type. Additionally, precip may struggle given dry air at lower levels. Warming trend expected for the beginning of the week, as upper level ridging begins to move into the Plains. Strong WAA and westerly/southwesterly flow aid in warming temperatures well above our average of the mid/upper 40s. Highs on Monday range from normal values across southwestern MN to the lower/mid 60s along the MO River. For Tuesday, most locations climb into the 60s, with some locations possibly hitting the 70 degree mark. Have warmed highs for Tuesday from the NBM guidance, given 700 mb and 850 mb temperatures are in the top couple of percent of guidance (when compared to climatology); additional increases may be warranted. Dry weather is expected. Increasing winds with the very warm temps Tuesday may lead to some fire concerns, especially for areas which have missed out on precipitation the last few days. What goes up must come down, and our temperatures next week certainly follow that saying. As ridging moves east Tuesday afternoon/night, upper wave and surface low pressure slide in. Strong CAA and strong northwesterly flow takes temperatures back below normal, with highs Wednesday in the mid 30s to lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the upper teens and lower 20s. Slightly warmer temperatures on tap for Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned upper wave slides out Thursday and ridging returns. Temps remain close to average, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Dry, but breezy, conditions look to prevail. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Variety of concerns through the TAF period. Through this afternoon and evening, winds remain predominately south/southwesterly with a mix of precipitation sliding from west to east. Gusts around 20 knots expected this afternoon/evening. Conditions range from VFR to IFR in stratus and precipitation. Winds shift to westerly then northwesterly late tonight and into early Sunday. Expect LLWS across the region with increasing winds aloft this evening into early Sunday. LLWS diminishes as mixing increases and stronger winds/gusts begin to reach the surface. Gusts will be around 35 to 40 knots, with higher possible. Winds then taper off through the mid/late morning and early afternoon, with gusts from the northwest around 20 knots possible. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...SG LONG TERM...SG AVIATION...SG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 430 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-NEZ013-014- SDZ065>071-141200- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Dixon-Dakota- Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union- 430 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Strong wind gusts up to or exceeding 45 mph will be possible tonight and into Sunday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MNZ071-072-080-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>064-141200- Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings- Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson- McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas- 430 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Strong wind gusts up to or exceeding 45 mph are likely tonight and into Sunday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a chance of light snow or rain Sunday night, but any accumulations would be minimal. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak wind gust of 71 mph was measured by the South Dakota Road Weather Information System site at the Fort Randall Dam (SD588).
With periodic sustained winds of 40 to 45 mph, a peak wind gust of 67 mph was measured by the South Dakota Road Weather Information System site at the Platte-Winner bridge around 10 miles west of Geddes (SD554). The Geddes RAWS site (RLAS2) recorded a peak gust of 59 mph.
A peak wind gust of 58 mph was measured by the South Dakota Road Weather Information System site 13 miles west of Ward (SD577).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in South Dakota, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 992177, 992178, 992179.