Rip Current in Puerto Rico, November 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 PM AST Sat Nov 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Generally fair weather with a typical shower pattern is expected
over the next few days. For the local waters, a swell will maintain
hazardous conditions for the offshore Atlantic waters, with another
swell expected for Monday. Dangerous rip currents are expected for
many local beaches. There is a high risk of rip currents in effect
for beaches of northern Puerto Rico and Culebra as well as eastern
St. Croix.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...

Patches of low-level moisture will continue to sustain a typical
shower pattern across the region through the period. Meanwhile, a
mid-level ridge will inhibit significant convective development. As
such, strong showers and thunderstorms are not anticipated, though
locally high rainfall totals cannot be ruled out should training
occur. On the whole, though, generally fair weather is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...From Prev Discussion...

Drier air ahead of a TUTT induced surface trough on Tuesday will
move across the region from the east. This, in combination with a
mid-level ridge aloft should promote fair weather conditions and
very limited shower development across the islands. PWAT content
increases during the second part of the week, between 1.75 and 2.00
inches, as the surface trough streams across the eastern Caribbean.
At least through Friday, showers are expected to increase in
frequency and intensity, compared to previous days. At the mid/upper
levels, a ridge pattern will remain in place, extending from the
Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic waters, and the 500 mb temps will
remain relatively warm near -6 degrees Celsius. Later in the
weekend, model guidance suggest that the remnants of an old frontal
boundary could move over the northeastern Caribbean, but confidence
at this moment is low. Moderate northeast steering winds are
forecast to prevail through the long term period, but breezy
conditions are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds to prevail across the local terminals. VCSH is possible
across the local terminals in SCT SHRA this afternoon. Winds will
be from the east northeast at 10-15KT with sea breeze variations
for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will decrease overnight,
remaining easterly at 10kt or less. Overnight ISOL/SCT SHRA across
the area will cause VCSH at the USVI terminals and TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...

Hazardous conditions persist for the offshore Atlantic waters, even
as the northerly swell subsides. Model guidance appears to be
underdoing the waves currently, based on buoy observations; as such,
adjustments have been made. Seas of around 5.5 to 6 feet have been
recorded this afternoon for the two nearshore buoys along the north
coast - San Juan and Arecibo. Meanwhile, Buoy 41043, located about
170 n mi north of San Juan, has consistently had seas of around 7
feet through the day today. Conditions are likely to hover right
around the criteria for being hazardous as the swell continues to
subside through tomorrow. On Monday, another swell is forecast to
make its way into the local waters, leading to another round of
building seas. Winds remain generally up to 15 knots out of the
east.

There is a high risk of rip currents for many local beaches,
including north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. There is
a high risk of rip currents tomorrow for eastern St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  87  76  88 /  50  40  40  30
STT  77  88  77  87 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Culebra-
     North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Southeast.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Mayaguez and
     Vicinity-San Juan and Vicinity.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for San Juan and Vicinity.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for St Croix.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Tuesday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....CRS
PUBLIC DESK...LIS

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo.
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
453 AM AST sabado 13 de noviembre de 2021

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-141015-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y
lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
453 AM AST sabado 13 de noviembre de 2021

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias de moderadas a localmente fuertes
pudieran resultar en acumulacion de agua en carreteras y areas con
poco drenaje en sectores del oeste y este de Puerto Rico, incluyendo
Vieques y Culebra. Para esta noche, un aumento en la actividad de
aguaceros pudiera resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos
localizadas a traves de sectores del este de Puerto Rico.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies a traves de
las aguas del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Anegada. En el resto de las
aguas, excluyendo las aguas costeras del sur y suroeste de Puerto
Rico, se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas para todas las playas orientadas hacia el norte de Puerto
Rico y todas las playas de Culebra. Para el resto de las playas,
excluyendo la costa sur central de Puerto Rico, un riesgo moderate
continue.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes...

Se espera que oleaje de picado a peligroso de hasta 7 pies continue
durante el fin de semana y la proxima semana, con el oleaje mas alto
a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe.
Ademas, se espera que un riesgo de moderado a alto de corrientes
marinas continue hasta mediados de la proxima semana. El potencial
de acumulacion de agua en carreteras y areas de poco drenaje a
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos localizadas continuara hasta
temprano la proxima semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, oleaje y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras
siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-141015-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
428 AM AST sabado 13 de noviembre de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias de moderadas a localmente fuertes pudiera
resultar en acumulacion de agua en carreteras y areas de poco
drenaje a traves de las Islas Virgenes Americanas esta noche.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies a traves de
las aguas del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Anegada. En el resto de las
aguas, excluyendo las aguas costeras del sur y suroeste de Puerto
Rico, se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas para las playas a traves de la costa norte de San Tomas,
disminuyendo a moderado temprano esta noche. Para el resto de las
playas, un riesgo moderate continue.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...domingo a viernes...

Se espera que oleaje de picado a peligroso de hasta 7 pies continue
durante el fin de semana y la proxima semana, con el oleaje mas alto
a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe.
Ademas, se espera que un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas el
domingo, pero un riesgo alto regresara para el lunes y continuando
hasta mediados de la proxima semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.