What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 7, 1:24 PM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 7, 1:24 PM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week as
an upper low meanders northeastward into the Great Lakes region
while the Bermuda High pumps Gulf moisture into the Southeast. Even
as this pattern breaks down late this week, showers and
thunderstorms will continue at least through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 pm: Convection is blossoming across the forecast area
early this afternoon along the leading edge of deep moisture plume
extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians. Coverage should continue to increase as activity lifts
northeast across the CWA through the afternoon into early evening,
warranting 70-80 PoPs across much of the forecast area. Instability
is perhaps a bit higher than what was previously anticipated, while
shear values are at least approaching the moderate range, so there's
been a slight uptick in the chance for a pulse severe storm or two.
Meanwhile, slightly improved mean tropospheric flow is allowing for
better cell movement than during the past couple of days.
Nevertheless, the potential for training cells, continued very moist
conditions/warm rain processes, and increased overall convective
coverage than in previous days will result in a continued risk of
locally excessive rainfall. Convection should again steadily
diminish and/or move east of the forecast area this evening, with
token small PoPs retained through the overnight in light of the
moist environment. Min temps will again be several degrees above
climo.
In terms of the synoptic setup, just more of the same on Tuesday,
with upper low wobbling very slowly east across the central Conus,
and subtropical ridge east of the area supporting anomalously moist
conditions across the forecast area, although guidance indicates
some decrease in mean 1000-500 mb RH. Short term guidance also sets
up a weak surface trough across the forecast area, which could
provide a focus for diurnal convective initiation, in addition to
the usual terrain effects. Thus, another day of above-climo PoPs is
warranted, with 50-60% chances peaking during the late afternoon in
most locations. The threats for a brief pulse severe storm or two
and locally excessive rainfall will otherwise persist.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday: Midlevel ridging persists through Wednesday
before weakening on Thursday as the upper low previously situated
over the Ozarks meanders northeastward. As it does so, it loses
much of its veracity and phases with a developing trough over
Canada, and with a fairly relaxed height gradient it will be tough
to get significant synoptic forcing. Meanwhile, at the surface,
southerly flow continues as a consequence of the stationary Bermuda
High over the west Atlantic. Late Thursday, the global models hint
that it will begin creeping southeastward, but this should not
hinder continued southerly flow from pumping Gulf moisture into the
low-levels. So, where earlier in the week profiles look to be near-
saturated through much of the troposphere, midlevels will begin to
dry out starting Thursday as mid/upper flow veers more west-
southwesterly. The area of 2"+ PWATs will push eastward
following the best synoptic environment, and our CWA will see
slowly diminishing PWATs after Thursday morning.
Nonetheless, we'll be looking at rain chances through end of the
short term - scattered showers all day Wednesday and into Thursday,
with the potential once again for some afternoon pulse storms in the
presence of modest surface instability. It's looking as though the
threat of heavy rain could continue into Thursday owing to
stationary storm cells, with PWATs lingering in the ~1.5" vicinity
and background winds struggling to pick up the pace. Luckily, in
line with what we've seen thus far this week and this past weekend,
the flooding threat should remain highly localized.
Temps should climb from at- or slightly above-normal on Wednesday,
to at least 2-3 degrees above normal on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday: On Friday, the trough over the northeastern
CONUS prompts development of a weak low pressure system over the
Ohio Valley. The warm frontal boundary should keep well to our
north, though it should aid in maintaining PoPs late Friday and
early Saturday. A weak attendant cold front pushes through the CWA
on Saturday, and flow at least briefly turns northwesterly. The
approach of a second upper feature - a shortwave that attempts to
skirt the broader trough - complicates matters, potentially inducing
additional rainfall past Saturday. Models remain in poor agreement,
however - with the GFS and ECMWF pushing for more rain, while the
CMC allows the shortwave to simply fade into the background flow as
dry, high pressure filters into the CWA on Sunday. For now, have
kept chance PoPs in the grids through the end of the extended.
Highs should remain a degree or two above normal through Saturday.
They'll likely drop on Sunday behind Saturday's cold front, but
certainty is low for not on the details.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is blossoming across the Terminal
Forecast Area this afternoon, and tempos for TSRA are warranted at
all sites. Coverage of convection should steadily diminish and/or
move east this evening, but coverage should remain high enough to
warrant VCSH through at least late evening. Statistical guidance is
in good agreement in developing widespread IFR, or even LIFR
conditions (primarily cigs) late tonight into early Tuesday, and
this trend is reflected in the latest forecast. Scattered convection
should begin firing by the end of this forecast cycle, and Prob30s
for TSRA are advertised at all sites during Tue afternoon.
Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly diurnal convective coverage
and associated restrictions persist through much of the week.
Morning fog/stratus are also possible, especially in the mountain
valleys.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 93% High 81% High 85%
KGSP High 97% High 88% Med 75% High 87%
KAVL High 91% High 86% Med 64% Med 70%
KHKY High 100% High 95% Med 73% High 85%
KGMU Med 69% High 80% High 83% High 84%
KAND Med 77% High 87% High 89% High 92%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDLHazardous weather outlook, Jun 7, 2:44 AM EST, 14 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-080745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
344 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected again today. The
main impacts are cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours.
Isolated flash flooding is possible with any slow moving storm that
produces locally heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 7, 4:00 PM EST, 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
NCZ036-037-057-070>072-072130-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
CABARRUS...DAVIE...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND
EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 8 miles west of
Mocksville to 6 miles northwest of Indian Land, and moving northeast
at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord,
Salisbury, Mocksville, Statesville, Central Charlotte, South
Charlotte and Northeast Charlotte.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8028 3519 8050 3521 8055 3506 8073
3502 8085 3511 8093 3504 8104 3508 8106
3584 8085 3606 8047 3596 8038 3589 8037
3588 8042 3584 8039 3584 8048 3579 8048
3573 8045 3572 8034 3568 8033 3563 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 244DEG 22KT 3588 8071 3507 8093
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 7, 4:11 PM EST, 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
511 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
SCZ014-072145-
Chester SC-
511 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles north of Winnsboro, or 4 miles east of
Blackstock, moving north at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg, Blackstock, Fishing Creek Reservoir
and Edgemoor.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089 3460 8089
3456 8087 3454 8088 3455 8097 3456 8117
3482 8107 3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088
3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 197DEG 13KT 3456 8107
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 7, 4:18 PM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
518 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
SCZ009-072145-
York SC-
518 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN YORK COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...
At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Rock Hill, or 4 miles southwest of Newport, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Newport, Lesslie, Mcconnells,
Catawba, Carowinds and Lake Wylie.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3490 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090 3482 8118
3488 8129 3499 8126 3515 8108 3515 8104
3513 8105 3511 8103 3509 8106 3506 8106
3504 8104 3511 8094 3508 8091 3504 8090
3501 8091 3499 8089 3492 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 246DEG 25KT 3494 8114
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 7, 4:30 PM EST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
530 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-072200-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
530 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
CABARRUS...CENTRAL DAVIE...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from near Mocksville to near
Downtown Concord to 4 miles northeast of Indian Land, and moving east
at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Monroe, Salisbury, Mocksville, South
Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, East Charlotte, West Concord and
Matthews.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3516 8044 3519 8028
3484 8032 3499 8083 3504 8087 3547 8078
3597 8072 3594 8038 3589 8037 3588 8042
3585 8039 3583 8049 3574 8046 3572 8034
3568 8033 3559 8021 3552 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 281DEG 42KT 3588 8060 3543 8064 3507 8082
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 7, 4:37 PM EST, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
537 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
SCZ006-007-012-072215-
Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
537 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM EDT...
At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or near Simpsonville, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Mauldin, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Duncan,
Reidville, GSP Airport, Donaldson Center and Greenville Eastside.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3456 8233 3464 8244 3474 8245 3498 8217
3477 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 231DEG 20KT 3472 8232
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 7, 4:43 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
543 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
NCZ037-072215-
Davie NC-
543 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM EDT...
At 543 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Mocksville, or 5 miles southeast of Courtney, moving
east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Bermuda Run, Advance and Farmington.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3592 8037 3594 8061 3605 8066 3605 8050
3604 8049 3606 8047 3606 8046 3603 8044
3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038 3593 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 255DEG 24KT 3600 8056
HG