Tornado and Hail in North Dakota, June 7 to 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Fire weather and severe weather are the main forecast challenges.

The warm front continues to lift back northward across South
Dakota late this afternoon. Temperatures have risen back to around
90 along the ND/SD border, but dewpoints are still only around 50.
However, the 60 dewpoints are poised back by Watertown SD now,
extending over toward Pierre. So the front is slow, but it is
still moving northward. With the dry air in place, afternoon
humidity levels have varied from the teens to the 20s. Southeast
winds have picked up to 15 to 25 mph, but really only across
southeast ND. So with these two parameters, near critical fire
weather conditions will continue into the early evening.

The latest high resolution model guidance continues to show storms
developing over north central SD/south central ND in the 7 to 10
pm range. Therefore, the activity may become elevated during the
mid to late evening, north of the surface warm front. This would
favor the Fargo to Bemidji corridor for storms to track after
formation, in the late evening and overnight hours. There is a low
level jet tonight, though it is not all that strong. Some sort of
organized complex is possible, but think the best chances for
severe weather would be during the evening. If a complex does get
going, there could be a severe weather threat during the
overnight hours. There will be more heat and humidity on Tuesday,
with breezy east-southeast winds by afternoon along and west of
the Valley. Did not spend a lot of time looking at thunder chances
for later Tuesday into Tuesday night, but they have been looking
best to the west of the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Impactful weather chances will occur a few times this week featuring
tstm risks. Heat will be less of an issue for the most part.

Chances for pcpn and storms enter the picture Wed with moist air and
dewpoints in the 60s result in more substantial CAPES. But there are
still questions about additional forcing mechanisms on Wed and only
general tstms are outlooked at this time. Best chances would be
associated with a frontal boundary looking to push through the
forecast area later Wed into the evening. Thu night into Fri will
offer the next chance for more active weather aided by a more robust
short wave and some low level jet action. A supply of cooler
(relatively) and drier air will filter in later Fri and could well
persist through the weekend.

Temp regime will continue to have above normal readings for the mid
to late week period with highs Wed and Thu above 90 for most spots
before easing back into the 80s for Fri into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Overall the TAFs should be fairly straightforward, with the main
challenge being thunderstorm development this evening and
overnight. At this point, looking at a potential start time of
early to mid evening, with the axis of best potential being
through KFAR and KBJI. For that reason, and due to some
uncertainty yet, only mentioned a VCTS at both of these sites
during this time period. Other sites may be on the fringe, but
much less certainty at this point. If a storm moves over a TAF
site, could definitely see much more wind than the TAFs reflect,
but that is pretty hard to nail down this far out.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the early to mid evening, continuing into the overnight hours.
Some storms may be severe this evening, with hail up to 2 inches
in diameter, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Chances for thunderstorms will exist almost daily. The coverage
and intensity of thunderstorms each day is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.