Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Mississippi, June 7 to 9, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.UPDATE...

See the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The active pattern continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley
as a pesky upper level low spins over Arkansas. This low will
slowly move northward over the next day or two. This will
influence our weather greatly and will keep rain chances pretty
high through at least mid week. Ample moisture remains in place
across the Mid South as PWs across the area run from 1.8 to 2.0
inches. I expect those to run on the higher side and perhaps over
2 inches at some point over the next couple of days. To put these
numbers in perspective, the daily max PW on this date for LZK is
1.97...we are reaching some of the max PWs for this area over the
next few days. There will be ample rain and any storms will put
down a lot of rain in a short time. We are talking rain rates of
1-2 inches per hour in deeper convection. The Weather Prediction
Center has most of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for the next 3 days. Showers and storms will
come in waves over the next few days. Short range guidance shows
multiple MCS type clusters moving across the region each day
through Wednesday. The exact timing and where they will track will
be tough due to where existing boundaries and such will be
located. It will be wet, but not an all day rain type of event.

Severe weather cannot be ruled out as a few isolated strong storms
could test severe limits, but we are not expecting widespread
severe weather. We are not outlooked by SPC for severe weather.
That could change, but as of now we are not outlooked. Again rain
chances will be high all week as we are highly confident in rain
occurring by not as confident in exact placement and location of
the heaviest rain. All in all...portions of the Mid South could
see 2 to 4 inches of rain over the next few days. Some areas could
see over 4 inches of rain. We will have to also monitor the need
for a Flash Flood Watch at some point over the next few days as
well. The thought this morning was that we have not seen as much
rainfall as other portions of the south over the last few days and
our soil should be able to handle a little bit more water before
it becomes a problem. However...we will need to watch where
heaviest rain sets up because if it occurs in an urban area or an
area with poor drainage some sort of watch or warning may be
needed.

Long term models suggest the upper level ridge axis over the
Southern Plains will gradually build into the Lower Mississippi
Valley later this week into the upcoming weekend. However, it
appears the Mid-South will initially be on the eastern periphery
of the trough axis and shower and thunderstorm chances may persist
through the first half of next weekend. Nonetheless, temperatures
will remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s
to lower 70s. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR and IFR conds will give way to VFR at all sites by early
afternoon. A complex of showers and storms, currently to our west,
is expected to arrive near MEM and JBR by 07/18Z. Storms will
arrive in TUP and MKL shortly thereafter.

Another round of storms is forecast to move into MEM around
sundown and spread to all sites overnight. CIGs will lower to
MVFR overnight and could decrease to IFR before sunrise. South
winds will persist through the period ranging from 5-10 kts.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
508 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-081215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
508 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Expect showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These storms
could produce locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Expect showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through at least
Wednesday. These showers and storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.