The Mehl wildfire was reported burning in logging slash on the evening of 06/01/2021. As of the last report at 0630 PDT on 06/06/21, the fire covered 110 acres and was 10 percent contained.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Mehl wildfire was reported burning in logging slash on the evening of 06/01/2021. As of the last report at 0630 PDT on 06/06/21, the fire covered 110 acres and was 10 percent contained. 120000 dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 1, 1:00 PM PST, 6 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 1 2021
.DISCUSSION...01/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
A strong ridge in place over the Pacific Northwest will weaken and
move slowly east today. As it does so, a thermal trough along the
coast will move inland.
This pattern usually dictates a hot day over inland locations, and
today will be no exception. Record breaking heat is expected over
the area, especially the inland west side valleys. The forecast
high for Medford today is 104 degrees.
Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Rogue, Illinois,
Applegate, Shasta, Scott, and Klamath River Valley due to hot
daytime temperatures and warm overnight/morning temperatures. The
Heat Advisory continues into Wednesday for the Siskiyou County
valleys. Record high temperatures are also forecast in the
Roseburg area, but no Heat Advisory is in effect because of the
forecast morning temperatures in the 50s this morning and again
tomorrow morning.
The ridge will continue to weaken and move east, and daytime highs
Wednesday over the inland areas will be around 5 degrees cooler
over the west side with little change east of the Cascades.
The next item of concern is isolated to scattered thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of an incoming
upper trough will advect moisture into the area with precipitable
water increasing to around 0.9 inches. Model lifted indices
increase to -2 over higher terrain from the Cascades east
Wednesday afternoon. Unstable conditions will return Thursday
afternoon and evening, but the most favored area will be displaced
north and east. There isn't much of a trigger on either day, but
there will still be plenty of surface heating along with some
surface convergence.
By Thursday, the offshore trough will become the dominant weather
factor for the Pacific Northwest, and it will remain in the area
for quite a while. The air mass will greatly stabilize Friday with
cooling at all levels, so no thunderstorms are forecast.
The GFS ensemble shows general troughing over the area not only
through this week, but next week as well. Expect relatively cool
temperatures to prevail through that interval. Weak fronts will
move onshore which may bring occasional light precipitation to the
north coast and Umpqua Basin, but that will be the extent of it.
The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid 09-15 June 2021, calls for greater
chances of below normal temperatures over the Medford forecast
area. As far as precipitation goes, there will be greater chances
of above normal precipitation from the Cascades west and Siskiyous
north, and near normal precipitation over the remainder of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 01/18Z TAF Cycle...Along the coast and just
offshore, marine stratus is currently hugging the coast from about
Cape Blanco north and just west of Gold Beach. It's expected to
remain just offshore this afternoon, but there's a chance it could
sneak inland just a bit, including North Bend earlier than whats in
the TAF, so watch for updates.
The onshore flow tonight will be a bit stronger resulting in a
thicker marine later this evening and move into coastal areas north
of Cape Blanco overnight into Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
-Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 1 June 2021...North winds
and seas will ease this afternoon as the thermal trough moves
inland. Weak offshore high pressure will set up west of the waters
tonight and last through Wednesday night. Even though light to
moderate north winds are expected during this time, the combination
of winds and seas should remain below small craft. North winds are
expected to increase Thursday, possibly reaching small craft
conditions south of Cape Blanco by Thursday afternoon, but this
should only be brief with winds diminishing once again Thursday
night as an upper level trough moves overhead.
A series of disturbances remaining north of the area during the
weekend may produce a high and steep west-northwest swell across the
southern Oregon coastal waters while a deepening thermal trough over
northern California brings strengthening north winds to the waters
south of Cape Blanco. -Petrucelli
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 1 June 2021...Hot, dry,
and breezy conditions are expected today for most areas as the
thermal trough pushes inland. Along with the heat today,
humidities will be low, especially for the inland valleys and
across the East Side, where minimum humidities are expected to
drop into the low to mid teens. Coupled with the breezy afternoon
upvalley winds, portions of the area could approach critical
conditions, namely in the Rogue Valley, the southern Oregon
Cascades, and in the Klamath River Valley of Siskiyou County.
While Red Flag conditions are not expected to be reached, it could
get quite close this afternoon and evening.
Moderate recoveries are expected tonight, but very warm and dry
conditions return for Wednesday. With the thermal trough well
inland, we expect a bit of a marine push, which will result in
higher humidities along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin, but will
also result in breezier winds Wednesday afternoon and evening. At
the same time, a significant upvalley flow in the Sacramento Valley
will push stronger southerly winds into the Shasta Valley, the
Medicine Lake highlands, and much of the Modoc. Humidities here will
remain low Wednesday (low teens to possible single digits), and near-
critical conditions may result for a few hours in these areas
Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the high pressure ridge will shift westward as a
shortwave trough arrives, bringing SW flow. Moisture and instability
increase enough to support a slight chance of thunderstorms over
Western Siskiyou County, the Cascades, and areas east of the
Cascades. Model instability has trended higher recently, and
guidance continues to support a higher chance of thunderstorms in
portions of central and northern Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625.
That being said, upper level support appears weak, but given the
general instability likely to result from daytime heating, and a
possible zone of surface wind convergence, the convection chances
remain in the 15 to 25% range. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch for
these areas has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Even though
moisture will be increasing Wednesday, storms that form may be
relatively dry due to a dry subcloud layer and the potential for
elevated cloud bases. Additionally, the Severe Fire Danger Index
(SFDI) suggests any lightning-caused fire starts Wednesday afternoon
could encounter favorable fire growth conditions Thursday afternoon
due to continued low humidity and increasing winds.
On Thursday, expect to see a trend towards slightly cooler
temperatures with the cooling trend continuing Friday into the
weekend as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. While
overnight recoveries will improve significantly late this week
through the weekend, daytime humidities will remain quite low.
Lingering instability and moisture will keep a slight chance of
thunderstorms east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon, then gusty
northwest winds are expected in the late afternoons and evenings
Thursday through Sunday, especially east of the Cascades. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ624-625.
Heat Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for ORZ024-026.
CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080>082.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT
Wednesday for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.
15/15/10The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mehl wildfire was reported burning in logging slash on the evening of 06/01/2021. As of the last report at 0630 PDT on 06/06/21, the fire covered 110 acres and was 10 percent contained. 120000 dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952226.