A persistent band of snow moved north from South Dakota into southeast and far south central North Dakota, with Dickey County on the western end of the heaviest snowfall. The band then stalled, and remained over Dickey County through the day before eventually departing to the east and dissipating.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A persistent band of snow moved north from South Dakota into southeast and far south central North Dakota, with Dickey County on the western end of the heaviest snowfall. The band then stalled, and remained over Dickey County through the day before eventually departing to the east and dissipating. Around 13 inches of snow fell in the Ellendale area, with 11 inches in Oakes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 6:09 AM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 609 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 608 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Light snow is expanding across northwest North Dakota early this morning. So far, webcam images suggest minimal impacts to travel. That could change later in the morning, but still not expecting anything significant. Overall, no changes to forecast thinking for today. Rapid-refresh guidance has been consistent, especially with the higher snow amounts in the southern James River Valley. The snow that will impact that area later today can now be seen developing on radar south of Aberdeen. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 407 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Light snow is expected across much of western and central North Dakota today. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for LaMoure and Dickey Counties where 3 to 5 inches of accumulation are possible. It will then become very cold later tonight, with wind chill values approaching 35 below for some areas across northern North Dakota. Two separate disturbances are forecast to converge over and impact the Northern Plains today. First, a mid level shortwave currently crossing Montana will bring light snow into western North Dakota through the morning. Snow is already falling along a mesoscale area of enhanced isentropic ascent within a broader warm air advection regime in the greater Williston area. Expect light snow to expand in areal coverage across western North Dakota through the morning, and eventually into central North Dakota during the afternoon. The highest QPF from this disturbance is favored from northwest into north central North Dakota, where forcing from warm air advection and DCVA are forecast to be strongest. There is potential for snow amounts to over-achieve. A deep DGZ layer from near the surface to around 700 mb that contains at least moderate lift and light winds could drive snow-to-liquid ratios above 20:1, and lapse rates above the DGZ are in the 7 to 8 C/km range. However, consensus guidance of both high-resolution and global model systems calls for maximum QPF only around 0.10" to 0.15". While this would yield localized amounts pushing 3 to 4 inches, lighter winds and the fluffy nature of the snow should help to reduce overall impacts for northwest and north central parts of the state. The second disturbance is tied to an upper level jet ejecting off the Rockies of Wyoming and Colorado early this morning. A more well- defined wave is forecast to evolve over the eastern Dakotas by this afternoon, with a potential closed circulation at 700 mb. The attendant lifting mechanisms will likely result in snow increasing from the James River Valley back into central North Dakota by the early afternoon. There is very good agreement among models for the development of this snow, with only minor latitudinal displacements. While the DGZ is not forecast to be as deep over southeast North Dakota, and may be bisected by a riming layer warmer than -10 C, stronger Q-vector convergence accompanied by even steeper mid level lapse rates (closer to 8 C/km) and slightly greater atmospheric moisture could drive maximum QPF over 0.25", as is being simulated by several CAMs. Ensembles indicate the most likely location for QPF greater than a quarter of an inch resides over eastern Dickey County, but could also end up as far north as eastern LaMoure County. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these two counties from late this morning through the evening. Total snow amounts around 3 to 5 inches can be expected along and east of Highway 281. While there is potential for isolated higher amounts, this does not appear to be a true mesoscale banding event due to the lack of strong frontogenesis. Aside from the snow, it will be very cold today with highs ranging from the single digits above zero north to teens south. Surface high pressure will begin to build into western North Dakota later tonight. There are concerns about lingering cloud cover due to the continued presence of cyclonic flow aloft. But if a cloud-free sky emerges over western North Dakota, overnight temperatures will likely plummet well into the teens, if not 20s below zero. At these temperatures, it will only take a light breeze to result in hazardous wind chills colder than 25 below zero, which are most likely to occur across northwest and north central North Dakota. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 407 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 The threat for very cold wind chills will continue on Saturday morning. The cold air mass will begin to erode in western North Dakota Saturday afternoon as the surface high slides off to the east. This could allow lower to mid 20s into southwest North Dakota, but the eastern half of the state will struggle to make it out of the single digits above zero for highs on Saturday. A mid level warm front is forecast to quickly cross North Dakota late Saturday night through Sunday morning. While most ensemble systems are not generating any QPF along the warm front, a quick examination of deterministic soundings does show steep lapse rates within a deep layer of near-saturation with respect to ice. This is moreso true farther north, which is in closer proximity to stronger supplemental forcing. But there could also be a very dry layer of low level air, particularly farther south, that inhibits hydrometeors from reaching the ground. If precipitation does occur, it would likely fall as snow to the north (maximum temperatures aloft near freezing) and liquid to the south (maximum temperatures aloft above freezing). However, the probability of measurable precipitation from this warm front is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Behind the warm front, a brief break from Arctic air will allow temperatures to climb into the 30s and 40s for most areas on Sunday, warmest in the southwest. A cold front attendant to a quick moving surface low across southern Canada is then set to push through the region by Sunday night. Some flurries are possible with the cold frontal passage, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time. Brisk northwest winds can also be expected along and behind the front, but weak low level lapse rates and only modest pressure rises should prevent stronger winds from being mixed to the surface. Temperatures will likely fall into the single digits above and below zero Sunday night, and may not recover that much on Monday. All global deterministic models show a progressive shortwave with strong attendant upper level forcing crossing the region late Monday into Tuesday, but ensemble systems are not that impressed. Ensembles do show higher probabilities of measurable QPF, but probabilities for greater than a tenth of an inch are very low, even when taking into consideration location uncertainty. Ultimately, the speed of this system could be the deciding factor for lower QPF, but the forecast evolution for this potential system bears watching over the next several days. Temperatures are favored to remain below normal through the upcoming week, but will generally be warmer to the southwest compared to northeast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 608 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Light snow with MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibility reductions will develop across western and central North Dakota this morning and afternoon. The most persistent snowfall and greatest amounts are expected at KXWA, KMOT, and KJMS. Conditions are expected to improve from west to east this evening through tonight. Easterly winds this morning will gradually turn to the northwest by tonight, sustaining around 10 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for NDZ048-051. && UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...Hollan LONG TERM...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 610 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 NDZ048-051-181215- La Moure-Dickey- 610 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late this morning through this evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031-032-035>037-181215- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells- Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman- 610 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 /510 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Light snow is expected today. Parts of northwest and north central North Dakota could see around 2 to 3 inches of accumulation. Very cold wind chills from 25 to 35 below zero are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Very cold wind chills from 25 to 35 below zero are possible Saturday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. NDZ033-034-040>047-050-181215- Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons- Logan-McIntosh- 610 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 /510 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Hollan
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Around 13 inches of snow fell in the Ellendale area, with 11 inches reported at Oakes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 998236.