Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, December 17, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
147 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

Summary:

An area of showers and storms will continue across the southeast
half of Oklahoma and north Texas, with a slight risk for severe
storms this afternoon/evening in southeast Oklahoma.

A cold front will clear precipitation out tonight and bring in much
cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop
below freezing for much of northern and northwest Oklahoma.

Meteorological Analysis:

Warm air advection has brought showers and storms to much of the
southeast half of Oklahoma and north Texas. Surface based
instability will gradually increase across southeast Oklahoma into
this afternoon (rising to 1000-1500 J/Kg) coinciding with effective
bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts. This will support a severe risk across
our far southeast counties (generally, southeast of a line from
Wichita Falls to Pauls Valley to Holdenville). Additionally, PWATs
are anomalously high (1.2 to 1.5 inches; near record). Despite dry
antecedent conditions, training storms could result in a localized
flooding threat.

A cold front will move through later this evening (entering NW OK
around noon, passing through central OK around 7-9pm). As this front
continues to push through the region overnight, precipitation should
clear out from northwest to southeast and colder temperatures will
fill in behind the front. Between cold air advection and some
clearing in the northwest, expect a decent temperature gradient for
overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 20s in far northwest
Oklahoma to the low to mid 30s across central into southwest
Oklahoma to the lower 40s in south central / southeast Oklahoma and
parts of north Texas. Breezy gradient winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected to develop late overnight into tomorrow morning. OVernight
wind chills will drop into the teens (possibly single digits) across
much of northern and western Oklahoma.

Saturday will be cold (highs in the low 40s to low 50s). Winds will
be breezy in the morning, then diminish through the afternoon as the
pressure gradient relaxes. A small window of overlap between the
breezy morning winds and the afternoon RH minimum may result in some
brief elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

As the cooler airmass settles over the southern Plains region,
Saturday night/Sunday morning will probably bring the coldest low
temperatures of the season to much of Oklahoma and north Texas.
Readings are expected to be in the teens and 20s F.

After that, a slow warming trend will follow for the remainder of
the forecast period, though there is some uncertainty about
temperatures toward the end of next week. Medium-range models
could be in better agreement in their placement of major features
then.

An upper-level low is forecast to move east across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma Sunday and Monday. Earlier forecasts included a
possibility of light rain and/or light snow with this system.
Now, it looks like moisture will be insufficient for measurable
precipitation.

CmS
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

VFR conditions will continue across most of the region overnight
Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers start to
expand from southeastern Oklahoma to the northwest Friday morning,
which will also bring lower ceilings and MVFR conditions across
the region. A cold front will move into the region from Kansas
Friday evening, shifting surface winds to the north and result in
some heavier showers and storms to develop ahead of the cold
front.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  35  44  21  45 /  30  10   0   0
Hobart OK         34  46  18  47 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  49  24  45 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           24  43  15  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     29  42  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         43  52  26  47 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1202 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Heavy Rainfall...
Very localized flooding may occur in part of southeast Oklahoma
where rain and thunderstorms may train over the same areas later
today and this evening.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in southeastern
Oklahoma this afternoon and evening ahead of, then along, a cold
front that will move through this area. Damaging wind is the primary
hazard, and large hail secondary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in western Oklahoma
Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

OKZ040-041-172115-
Garvin OK-Murray OK-
247 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Garvin and
north central Murray Counties through 315 PM CST...

At 247 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Katie, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pauls Valley and Wynnewood.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 61 and 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9732 3463 9738 3483 9706 3461 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 248DEG 17KT 3461 9727

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAD