A band of snow persisted over southern Baranof Island as a low tracked SE over the easern Gulf of Alaska. Easterly upslope flow combinded with cold northerly surface winds in Port Alexander resulted in heavy snowfall rates and high ratios.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A band of snow persisted over southern Baranof Island as a low tracked SE over the easern Gulf of Alaska. Easterly upslope flow combinded with cold northerly surface winds in Port Alexander resulted in heavy snowfall rates and high ratios. The snow band eventually extended SE across northern Prince of Wales Island to Ketchikan. Fluffy/dry snow accumulated quickly with reports of 1 to 2 inches per hour.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 3:06 PM AKST, 13 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Thu Dec 16 2021
.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Evening/ The main story in the short
term will be minor snow accumulations for much of Southeast Alaska
Friday through Friday night.
A break in the overall ridging pattern will allow a weak surface
low to track eastward across the Central Gulf and towards the SE
Gulf Coast over the next 24 to 36 hours. Southerly flow ahead of
this system is already spreading high clouds over much of the
region this afternoon. Expect light snow to overspread the area
from NW to SE, beginning tonight in Yakutat and on Friday for the
rest of the Panhandle. As the low tracks towards the SE Gulf
Coast Friday evening, a gale force front will lift north towards
the Southern Panhandle, setting the stage for heavier snow across
that area. 1000-850mb thickness below 1290m, lapse rates within
the DGZ of 7-8C/KM, and the left exit region of the jet nudging in
from the southwest raise confidence in the accumulating snow
threat for the southern Panhandle. The front is expected to stall
right along the coast Friday evening, then the low will slide SE
along it towards Haida Gwaii. Lower confidence exists in how far
north the front and relatively "warmer" air will go. Currently
expecting a mix or change over to rain Friday evening from Port
Alexander to Craig to Hydaburg to Metlakatla. Areas further north
should remain mostly snow; however that rain/snow line will need
to be monitored closely.
Overall expecting light accumulations for much of the Panhandle.
Heaviest snow expected along the NE Gulf Coast, Outer Coast, and
far Southern Panhandle. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for Yakutat for 3 to 6 inches of snow this evening through Friday
afternoon. A general 1 to 3 inches is possible for the Central
Panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor. Another Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for the Southern Panhandle including Prince of Wales
Island and the Ketchikan area for up to 2 to 4 inches of snow.
For marines and winds, gale force conditions develop along the
Outer Coast ahead of the low Friday afternoon and evening. Small
craft conditions develop in the far Southern Inner Channels,
around Cross Sound, and the backside of Douglas Friday. Northerly
outflow develops as the low slides SE and higher pressure re-
strengthens across the north Friday evening through Saturday.
Expect small craft northerlies to develop across the Northern
Inner Channels Friday night; further strengthening into the
weekend.
Overall confidence remains fairly high for the short term. Area of
lowest confidence is across the far southern Panhandle where the
rain/snow line exists on Friday.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday night/...the mid range
forecast begins with a surface low and associated chances of
precip moving south out of the area as a 500mb high builds in. So
Saturday should end up seeing clear to mostly clear skies over the
panhandle. Kept strong winds in Lynn Canal due to tight pressure
gradient between Icy Strait corridor and Skagway.
Sunday and Monday look dry with clear to mostly skies as a 500mb
ridge will control the skies over southern and southeast Alaska.
Outflow winds will still be strong for the northern inner channel
marine waters.
Temperatures will still be below normal for Saturday through
Monday. So lows will, generally, be in the teens to 20s and highs
in the 20s to 30s. Coldest temps in the north, warmest in the
south, but still overall, below normal.
Tuesday is when the weather pattern has potential to change. That
being said, models usually bring weather pattern changes in too
soon so this change in the weather pattern could end up being
pushed back by a day. However, if the current projections play
out, a quick moving low pressure system would pass through the NE
gulf. This passing low would give the panhandle another round of
rain and snow Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to midnight AKST Friday
night for AKZ027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
Friday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-035-036-051-052.
&&
CM/GJS
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall with rates in excess of 2 inches per hour were observed in Port Alexander. Storm total of 11 inches.
Public reported 10 inches of new snow at Herring Cove near Ketchikan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1000283, 1000284.