Ahead of a frontal zone, a line of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms moved over western North Carolina during the evening of the 29th. The line produced gusty winds, with a small area of damaging winds reported in Jackson County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Ahead of a frontal zone, a line of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms moved over western North Carolina during the evening of the 29th. The line produced gusty winds, with a small area of damaging winds reported in Jackson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 6:46 PM EST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface boundary will maintain rain showers this afternoon into
Thursday. Periods of rain will continue Friday through late
Saturday, while warm temperatures persist. A strong cold front
crosses the area early Sunday with thunderstorms probable through
daybreak. A return of cooler, yet seasonal, temperatures is expected
on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 510 PM: No significant changes to the forecast. Continuing to
track scattered showers moving eastward across the Upstate, which
will soon impact the eastern Piedmont.
The cold front remains located to the north and west of the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia, in fact it has made little forward
progression over the last few hours. This is due in part to the
upper-level subtropical ridge remaining over the Southeast US this
afternoon into tonight. The upper-level flow pattern flattens
out throughout the day Thursday allowing the frontal boundary
to lose upper-level forcing. This leads to the FROPA remaining
north of the CWA throughout the near term forecast period. This
overall pattern will lead to breezy southwesterly flow throughout
the near term. This will act to stream in moisture well ahead
of the front throughout the evening hours. Thus, light rain is
noted across portions of northeast Georgia, the SC Upstate and
the NC Piedmont. This precip should end by late afternoon/early
evening leading to a few hours of briefly dry conditions before
precip chances increase again late this evening into the overnight
hours as lobes of vorticity track ahead of the FROPA and across
the CWA. Rain chances will increase from west to east overnight
leading to categorical PoPs across the mountains high end chance
to high end likely elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible tonight, mainly along the far SW zones. Models show
decent 0-6 km bulk shear from 50 to 60 kts across the CWA. SBCAPE
values range from a few hundred J/kg, (ECMWF, GFS, an Canadian),
while the NAM is more bullish showing SBCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg. With high shear and low CAPE across the CWA, the SPC Day
1 Severe Wx Outlook has the entire forecast area in a marginal
risk to slight risk. The slight risk is in place across much of
NE GA, the NC mountains and Foothills, and the NW SC Upstate. The
marginal risk is across far southern NE GA, the SE NC Upstate,
and the eastern NC Piedmont, which includes the CLT metro. The main
potential threats are damaging wind gusts and isolated short-lived
tornadoes. Isolated large hail is also possible, but the threat
seems low overall. Localized heavy rain will be possible, especially
across the SW mountains, as this is where the highest QPF response
is anticipated due to the upslope component. WPC has the majority
of the SW mountains in a marginal risk for their Day 1 Excessive
Rainfall Forecast, with a slight risk for Graham county and western
Swain county. High temps today will be 15-20 degrees above normal,
but should fall short of record high temps. Low temps Thursday
morning will be 30 degrees above climo again thanks to cloud cover
and SW'ly flow. The high minimum temperature records could be
broken at all three climate sites again Thursday morning. However,
AVL may fall short due to the early onset rain chances overnight.
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue as vorticity lobes continue tracking east
across the CWA ahead of the frontal boundary that will be situated
to our north. PWAT values will be near record values for this time
of year throughout the day Thursday. PWATs will be around an inch
across the mountains and 1.5 inches outside the mountains. So,
locally heavy rainfall is likely at times Thursday. The majority
of the CWA, east of the far western NC mtns, is in a marginal risk
for severe storms Thursday. With 0-6 km bulk shear values from
50 to 60 kts remaining across the area and models showing SBCAPE
values higher than the overnight period, roughly 1100-1500 J/kg,
damaging wind gusts and isolated short-lived tornadoes will continue
to be the main potential threats. High temps will be 15-20 degrees
above normal again Thursday thanks to continued SW'ly flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...The orientation of the upper ridge changes
very little over the first half of the period as a subTrop high
remains dominant and maintains a sfc bndry draped across the FA. The
models are showing less energy traversing the upper flow Fri, while
llvl moisture flux from the GOM lessens as well. Thus, believe the
sfc bndry will have less impact during max heating as far as convec
potential as it slowly lifts north during the afternoon and into the
=overnight. However, with sfc temps and td/s remaining well abv
normal levels, a few general tstms are probable as deep layered
shear remains arnd 60 kts and soundings continue to show arnd 150
J/kg of elevated instability to work with. So, have dropped PoPs
back a little and the overall chance for tstms thru Fri night.
On Sat, convection looks to becomes well organized to the west of
the FA by early afternoon associated with a stg cold front. Not
expecting much precip or thunder potential thru the early part of
the day, but believe insent lift will increase enuf ahead of the
front for -shra with a few embedded tstms developing mainly across
the srn NC mtns and NE GA into the evening. The main convec line
looks to reach the wrn NC mtns around midnight and with deep shear
levels remaining strong and good dyno lift, these storms will likely
maintain some organization as they cross into and thru the higher
terrain during the early morning hours. The biggest threat will be
damaging straight-line winds along with large hail as strong
updrafts are enhanced by good difl flow aloft. Hodos are more
straight-line and long than curved, yet a couple QLCS type tornadoes
are possible, especially as the line reorganizes east of the mtns
arnd daybreak Sun. A good amt of rain is also possible with this
system and for now, areas across the SW NC mtns could receive 2-3
inches, while arnd an 1-2 inches are possible east of the mtns over
the 36-hr period.
Temps will remain well abv normal and record max temperatures may
tie or fall at KCLT and KGSP on Fri, while record high min
temperatures could be broken/tied at all three climo sites Sat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...A strong upper trof axis swings across the
area Sun into Sun night. This forcing will have waning amts of llvl
moisture to work with as an attendant sfc front will be east of the
FA by 21z or so. However, still expect enough lingering back-side
moisture across the west to generate a period of NWFS beginning Sun
evening continuing into the overnight. Expect light amts of snow,
but the NC/TN spine areas may receive arnd an inch with locally
higher amts near two inches by the time the snow tapers close to
daybreak. The upper trof passage will also usher in a colder cP
airmass as a 1035 mb sfc high begins building in from the west early
Mon. This deeply dry high will become dominant and center across the
FA thru Tue. Max temps on Sun will still reach well abv normal
levels then with the expected airmass mix, seasonal temps will
return Mon thru the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: SWly flow continues to moisten profiles ahead
of a stalling front. All sites can expect continued VCSH/-SHRA
for the next few hours, as the better dynamics ramp up and enhance
activity across the area. For now, most sites have MVFR to high-IFR
cigs, but will gradually deteriorate overnight to more pronounced
IFR cigs with periods of potentially LIFR cigs developing from
04Z and beyond as a line of more organized showers passes across
the area. Sporadic thunder cannot be ruled out but coverage is
too low for a mention of more than -SHRA in the TAFs. A lull in
activity and brief improvement toward daybreak will be sidelined
going into Thursday morning, as the frontal boundary itself impinges
on the forecast area and invigorates a still-juiced-up atmosphere.
So, showers will ramp back up and IFR restrictions will return
by mid-morning. All sites now feature PROB30s for -TSRA Thursday
afternoon, as deeper convection should be allowed to develop
through the afternoon and early evening.
Outlook: Brief drying is in order Thursday night and into Friday,
and conditions should gradually improve to VFR by Friday morning.
Restrictions return, however, by late Friday, as a more robust front
approaches and potential thunder returns on Saturday. This wet
pattern and associated restrictions should continue through Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1984 14 1894 56 1954 -3 1894
KCLT 76 2015 22 1894 61 1954 2 1894
KGSP 72 2015 29 1935 58 2015 11 1917
1984
RECORDS FOR 12-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 73 1984 18 1909 57 1990 -4 1917
KCLT 76 1984 20 1917 61 2015 -5 1880
1880
KGSP 75 1984 22 1917 58 2015 3 1917
RECORDS FOR 12-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1951 18 1917 49 2018 5 1876
1936
1923
KCLT 70 1996 19 1917 61 1923 0 1880
KGSP 72 1996 18 1917 61 1996 11 1983
1917
1899
RECORDS FOR 01-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1952 21 2018 54 1985 -1 1928
KCLT 74 1985 29 1881 56 1973 10 1928
KGSP 75 1952 28 1918 56 1952 8 1918
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...AP/MPR
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...WJMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1023 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-010- 310330- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson- 1023 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 ...TORNADO WATCH 571 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west and cross the area overnight. A few storms may be strong to severe, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Storms should weaken as they track east toward the I-77 corridor near daybreak Thursday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Additional showers and storms may develop Thursday afternoon, with a few strong storms possible mainly across the Piedmont. Another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected Friday, with a few strong storms possible across the area. Another dynamic storm system will cross the area over the weekend, bringing yet another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. A few severe storms may be possible Saturday night into Sunday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the exact strength and timing of this system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>009- 011>014-019-310330- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe- Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Spartanburg-Cherokee- York-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 1023 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west late this evening and cross the area overnight. A few storms may be strong to severe, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Storms should weaken as they track east toward the I-77 corridor near daybreak Thursday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Additional showers and storms may develop Thursday afternoon, with a few strong storms possible mainly across the Piedmont. Another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected Friday, with a few strong storms possible across the area. Another dynamic storm system will cross the area over the weekend, bringing yet another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. A few severe storms may be possible Saturday night into Sunday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the exact strength and timing of this system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. MPR
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
959 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021
NCZ051-058-059-062-300345-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
959 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Macon,
northern Jackson, Swain and Graham Counties through 1045 PM EST...
At 958 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Robbinsville, or 8 miles west of Town Of Santeetlah,
moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Sylva, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee, Cullowhee, Webster,
Dillsboro, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area and Lake
Santeetlah.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3544 8399 3560 8326
3528 8298 3524 8315 3522 8371 3523 8369
3526 8371 3524 8376 3526 8379 3525 8385
3522 8396 3524 8401 3527 8401 3529 8403
3531 8402 3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 269DEG 75KT 3533 8400
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
WJMThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Ham radio operator reported three trees blown down in northern Jackson County, including at Highway 74 and Bradley Branch Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1000186.