Moderate rip currents at Oak Island, NC led to two drownings in the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Moderate rip currents at Oak Island, NC led to two drownings in the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 11:49 AM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1249 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Fred over WV this morning will continue to lift to the north-northeast while swells from Henri will affect the beaches later this week likely resulting in a period of strong rip currents. Otherwise, unsettled weather will persist through the weekend with a potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. && .UPDATE... Latest model guidance is a little less excited about shower and thunderstorm potential as the day progresses. Guidance shows the current bands of showers and storms consolidating off the coast but scattered showers and storms remain possible over land. Forecast has been tweaked to reflect this but overall chance of rain for the day at any given point remains about the same as was previously forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection can be awfully difficult for computer models and meteorologists alike as evidenced by the evolution of thunderstorms yesterday across the Grand Strand region into southeast NC. Rainfall totals over 4 inches were recorded from mesonet stations in Nakina and Pireway in Columbus County, NC and from Longs in Horry County, SC. A line of convection across central South Carolina early this morning trails southward from former Tropical Storm Fred. As Fred weakens further and moves into the central Appalachians, this line should continue to drift eastward and will intercept a flow of rich tropical moisture off the Atlantic. Dewpoints at Myrtle Beach have been near 80 degrees for several hours now, supporting surface-based CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Clusters of showers and t-storms, some with heavy rainfall, should be the result across the area this morning. PoPs of 50-70 percent are forecast from the eastward-moving line plus new convection anticipated to develop across the ocean and move onshore. Scattered showers and t-storms may continue into the afternoon hours. Inland convective activity should die away this evening, but may continue across the Cape Fear region overnight as onshore flow advects nocturnal marine showers and storms onshore. Some patchy fog could develop inland as high dewpoints and partially clearing skies mix. More sunshine is expected on Thursday as precipitable water values finally dip below 2 inches with a little westerly wind aloft. This should boost highs back into the 90s inland, but with continued high dewpoints, heat index values could approach that critical 105 degree value in spots. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... First and foremost, there is a potential for a period of strong rip currents by the end of the week. Ultimately this will depend on the evolution of Henri, especially if the storm intensifies as the latest NHC forecast indicates. The elevated risk will likely carry into the long term period, at least until the storm pulls farther away from the adjacent offshore waters. Otherwise, the H7-H5 ridge axis will become squeezed between Henri which is expected to remain off the Carolinas and an evolving mid/upper low over PA during Friday. GEFS ensemble PWAT suggest ample moisture will be available across the forecast area during Fri which seems feasible with the area of subsidence beyond the outer periphery of Henri likely remaining offshore. As a result, mid-level impulses moving across the Carolinas during Friday should be able to spark scattered convection, especially along the sea breeze front and weak surface trough. Also regarding the convection Friday and resulting increase in cloud cover have lowered max temperatures by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid/upper trough across the eastern U.S. during Saturday will continue to direct multiple impulses embedded in the WNW flow across the Carolinas. While the axis of highest PWATs will have shifted off the coast and extend south of the forecast area ample moisture will remain with another day with an active sea breeze front and lingering weak surface trough. Unsettled weather will likely persist into Monday and Tuesday as well with the positioning of the mid/upper trough, then finally a subtropical ridge attempting to regain control from the east by the middle of the week may provide for less convective coverage. An elevated rip current risk is likely through the weekend with conditions improving afterwards. Otherwise, favor high temperatures closer to climatology, at least Saturday- Monday with above normal lows. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... It seems that most of the early convection has ended. There may be another round later this afternoon, but coverage will be limited. Some nocturnal storms are possible after midnight due to such warm water. Less coverage of storms on Thursday. Extended Outlook...Typical summer weather should return Thursday through Sunday with scattered mainly afternoon showers or storms possible. && .MARINE... Through Thursday... The weakening surface low from former Tropical Storm Fred will move into the central Appalachians today. The pressure gradient between Fred and a weak ridge of high pressure along the southeast coast will lead to southerly winds decreasing to 10-15 knots today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly this morning, but could continue into the afternoon hours with decreasing coverage. Stronger winds overnight led to seas running 4-5 feet early this morning, but sea heights should fall by about a foot during the day as winds decrease. Southwest winds around 10 knots are expected tonight into Thursday with scattered showers or thunderstorms continuing. Ten-second east- southeast swell from strengthening Tropical Storm Henri, located between Bermuda and the Southeast coast, will arrive here Thursday and should become our dominant wave group with seas 2-3 feet. Thursday night Through Sunday... Increasing swells from Henri are expected Thursday night through Saturday, with conditions improving by Saturday night as the storm pulls farther away from the adjacent offshore waters. A weak surface ridge will persist between Henri and the Carolina coast Thursday night with a surface trough across the central Carolinas. This setup will promote S-SWly flow across the coastal waters Thursday night with a period of light winds Friday. SWly winds are expected Saturday and Sunday, but the flow could become ambiguous if the inland trough shifts closer to the coast, or at least in the vicinity of any convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...31 NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...43 MARINE...ILM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington NC 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-190730- Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry- Coastal Georgetown- 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Heavy rainfall today could lead to isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. An elevated risk of rip currents at the beaches will continue Thursday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-190730- Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro- Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown- Central Horry-Northern Horry- 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Heavy rainfall today could lead to isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. AMZ250-252-254-256-190730- Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ107-190730- Inland New Hanover- 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Heavy rainfall today could lead to isolated flooding. Minor coastal flooding could occur along the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington during this evening's high tide around 7 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding could occur along the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington during Thursday night's high tide around 8 PM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 9
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1038 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
NCZ096-181515-
Bladen NC-
1038 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bladen County
through 1115 AM EDT...
At 1038 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ruskin, or 7 miles northwest of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Bladenboro, Bladen Community College, Abbottsburg,
Lisbon, Duart, Ammon, Lagoon, Elkton, Ruskin, White Oak, Jerome,
Clarkton, White Lake, Dublin, Tar Heel and Bladen County Hospital.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3484 7849 3481 7845 3477 7843 3475 7839
3473 7839 3472 7838 3470 7837 3469 7835
3467 7832 3464 7831 3463 7832 3459 7829
3445 7862 3446 7864 3445 7866 3447 7867
3446 7879 3485 7883 3485 7852 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 234DEG 19KT 3471 7870
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SCALORAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Oak Island Water Rescue reported three people got caught in a rip current near the pier on Trott St. The father was brought to shore by bystanders and pronounced dead, while a second person was rescued. The third person, the son, was found in the water a few hours later.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Coastal Brunswick | 2021-08-18 | 20 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, Coastal Brunswick | 2021-08-18 | 50 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975606.