Low level moisture remained across the Sacramento Mountains which combined with a weak upper level disturbance to create some slow moving thunderstorms. 50 inches of rain 5 miles west of Mayhill which caused some mud to cross Highway 82.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Low level moisture remained across the Sacramento Mountains which combined with a weak upper level disturbance to create some slow moving thunderstorms. One storm dropped 1.50 inches of rain 5 miles west of Mayhill which caused some mud to cross Highway 82.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 12:42 PM MST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A few days of healthy moisture and thunderstorm chances remain, then the atmosphere dries out and chances lessen. Monday through Wednesday will be relatively active, especially for area mountains, but lowlands will see scattered storms as well from time to time. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the mid 80s most locations, then drier conditions return for much of the area during the latter portions of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... A current look at radar and satellite imagery at the noon time hour shows thunderstorms beginning to form over the Sacramento Mountains and Black Range in southern New Mexico. These locations, much like yesterday, will be the focus for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding this afternoon. Latest analysis depicts precipitable water values near 1.5", well above normal for the early Monsoon season. Convective instability is modest, with "skinny" CAPE values of 1000- 1500 J/kg. Because of this and the lack of a synoptic lifting mechanism, we'll be highly reliant on terrain forcing and outflow boundaries to generate storms this evening. Thus, expect thunderstorm activity to focus over area mountains today with only isolated activity along the lowlands. Storms that do form will be nearly stationary and pose a threat of localized flooding. Rains will be very hit-and-miss and should allow most of the I-10/I-25 corridor to enjoy holiday festivities tonight. Winds may increase after sunset due to outflow, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Thunderstorm activity will diminish around midnight tonight, leaving much of the region partly cloudy and mild overnight. High pressure aloft will remain in place over the U.S. Southwest into Monday. Plentiful available moisture and a marginally unstable environment should result in yet another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Weather will be very similar to today, with light west winds and slightly below normal temperatures. Lowland highs should reach the lower 90's. Rain chances will once again favor high terrain and mountain zones which may be a flooding threat. && .LONG TERM... We'll focus on a few features within the long term period that may enhance convection daily. First of all, the ridge of high pressure will remain to our west and northwest through the end of next week. As a result, our temperatures each afternoon will be below average, generally 5 to 10 degrees. Although, the GFS suggests perhaps closer to normal next week. The coolest day will potentially be Wednesday for a few reasons discussed below. Additionally, as is the case given the monsoon flow and weak flow through the column, most afternoons outside of any convection will result in light to mildly breezy winds and mainly from the east. The first feature to note, perhaps a little ripple in the flow aloft Monday evening. Instability and moisture will remain rather healthy regardless, so scattered storms expected into the evening across the lowlands. Heavy rainfall and to a lesser extent gusty winds the main hazards. A second relatively well defined feature (which is currently spinning across N CA) seems to rotate around the ridge of high pressure Tuesday evening and overnight, which may very well spark convection with times of some stratiform precip into Wednesday. Most guidance are picking up on both this disturbance and the fact that precipitation lingers into the overnight hours. Cloud cover and convection may result in a cool day on Wednesday with highs in the 80s. Dry air entrains into mid to late next week, limiting a good chunk of the POP chances, except for area mtns. Then moisture may increase next weekend with an east push of sorts, but looking at the global ensemble "chicklet PW" plot from wxbell, the quality of moisture may not be as great/generous as this past bout of consistent 1.5" PWs, but POP chances reintroduced. && .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE Scattered TSRA expected across S NM/W TX this afternoon, beginning with CB over mountains at the start of the period. Skies generally SCT060-080 BKN150 with TS chances from 21Z-06Z this evening. Confidence in TS impacts is low for TAF sites, so leaving mention of thunder out of KELP/KDMN. VCTS included for KLRU/KTCS, which may need to be amended with TEMPOs and possible IFR VIS if conditions deteriorate. Prevailing winds 250-280 at 08-12KT, although outflow winds may increase winds to VRB20G30KT temporarily between 00-06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday, with wetting rains covering much of Lincoln National Forest and the Black Range in southern New Mexico. The main weather hazard will be flash flooding due to locally heavy rains. Flooding may be magnified by burn scars in a few areas. The rest of the week will feature continued wet and cool summertime conditions, which should keep fire danger low and fuels unreceptive. Relative humidity will remain fairly high, dipping to 30-40% in the afternoon. Overnight recoveries will be excellent (70-80%). Light and variable ridge top winds will shift to the east by Tuesday, generally 5 to 10 mph. Smoke ventilation will remain Poor to Fair. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for early July. Thunderstorm coverage may briefly diminish late this week due to drier air moving in but quickly return by next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 94 72 90 / 30 40 50 50 Sierra Blanca 67 87 68 82 / 30 40 50 50 Las Cruces 71 93 70 89 / 20 30 40 50 Alamogordo 70 93 67 89 / 20 40 50 60 Cloudcroft 52 70 51 66 / 40 80 60 70 Truth or Consequences 71 92 70 90 / 30 40 40 50 Silver City 64 87 63 85 / 40 60 40 50 Deming 70 94 71 92 / 30 30 40 50 Lordsburg 70 92 72 92 / 30 30 30 40 West El Paso Metro 74 94 72 90 / 30 40 50 50 Dell City 71 92 65 87 / 30 40 60 50 Fort Hancock 71 95 72 90 / 30 40 60 50 Loma Linda 68 86 66 82 / 30 40 50 50 Fabens 74 95 71 90 / 30 40 50 50 Santa Teresa 71 92 70 89 / 30 30 50 50 White Sands HQ 73 92 71 88 / 30 40 50 60 Jornada Range 71 92 65 88 / 30 40 50 60 Hatch 71 95 69 91 / 20 30 40 60 Columbus 72 93 71 89 / 30 30 40 60 Orogrande 71 91 69 87 / 20 40 50 50 Mayhill 57 79 56 76 / 40 70 60 70 Mescalero 56 80 54 76 / 40 70 60 70 Timberon 55 77 52 74 / 40 80 60 70 Winston 58 86 56 84 / 40 60 40 50 Hillsboro 67 90 65 88 / 30 50 40 50 Spaceport 70 92 63 88 / 20 30 40 60 Lake Roberts 58 88 51 87 / 40 60 40 50 Hurley 64 90 65 88 / 40 50 40 50 Cliff 60 95 64 94 / 40 60 30 40 Mule Creek 65 90 56 90 / 50 60 20 40 Faywood 66 90 67 87 / 40 50 40 50 Animas 68 92 70 93 / 40 30 40 40 Hachita 68 92 69 91 / 30 30 40 50 Antelope Wells 68 89 68 89 / 40 40 40 50 Cloverdale 64 84 66 87 / 50 50 40 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 30-Dennhardt/35-DeLizio/30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1003 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-051615- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1003 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this afternoon over the mountainous terrain of southern New Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially for the Sacramento Mountains and Black Range. Flash flooding will be the primary hazard. Rain amounts in excess of 2 inches per hour may quickly make back country roadways and low water crossings impassable. Hikers and campers should take proper precautions from the threat of lightning and running water. More isolated storm coverage is expected over the lowlands later this evening, with localized flooding and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph possible. This may disrupt outdoor holiday events, including fireworks shows. Loose outdoor objects should be secured near thunderstorms, and people should go indoors when thunder is heard. Rain chances will end shortly after midnight tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early part of the week. The main threat will continue to be locally heavy rain and flooding, although a few strong storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday, producing gusty winds and small hail. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish Thursday and Friday as drier air moves into the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, however SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe weather and flooding to WFO EPZ when it occurs. Dennhardt
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
An inch and a half to 2 inches of rain fell just west of Mayhill which caused some mud to come across Highway 82.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972416.