The combination of a weak stationary front and abundant tropical moisture resulted in showers and thunderstorms that produced some localized flooding mainly in San Angelo and Abilene.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The combination of a weak stationary front and abundant tropical moisture resulted in showers and thunderstorms that produced some localized flooding mainly in San Angelo and Abilene.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 1:50 PM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the area this afternoon. Most of the activity is east of a Sweetwater to Ozona line. Movement of this activity is slow, and when combined with such plentiful moisture, these showers will be very efficient in producing heavy rainfall totals in a short period of time, so the main concern with this activity will continue to be locally heavy rainfall and flooding. These showers are largely diurnally driven, so expect the large majority of these showers to diminish between 00Z and 03Z this evening. Later tonight, a shortwave currently moving south through Kansas is expected to continue moving south, and potentially initiate another late night northerly flow MCS to our north that will move through the area late tonight into Monday. The HRRR, GFS, and ECMWF all show precipitation moving into our area after 06Z tonight, and affecting mainly the western half of our CWA from late tonight into tomorrow afternoon. So, will keep high end Chance PoPs going for northwestern counties tonight with some Likely PoPs for the southern half of the area Monday afternoon, as daytime heating may aid in continuation of this MCS or new development off of any convective outflow boundaries produced by this convection. Highs will again be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Little change in our weather pattern is expected through Wednesday. An upper high will be over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, and a weak upper low/trough will be over the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Our area will be situated between these systems, with weak north to northeast flow aloft. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue, and these will be mainly diurnally driven. Warm and humid conditions will continue but the daily highs will remain below normal and mostly in the mid to upper 80s. The aforementioned high may expand east into the Red River Valley late in the week. This would suppress rain chances for the northern part of our area, and reduce the prospects to only isolated or widely scattered showers/storms for our southern counties. Temperatures look a bit warmer for this time frame, but still remain below normal with the daily highs. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF retrograde the upper high over southern Nevada and California next weekend, and bring an upper trough east to the Mississippi Valley. This setup should allow for a continued low possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms in our area. This also extends the break from the usual summer heat with our daytime temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Scattered convection has developed across the area early this afternoon, so will go ahead and include a VCTS at all sites for the afternoon into the evening hours, with low confidence in predicting if/when any of these storms might directly impact any particular site. Expect the showers and thunderstorms to dissipate by 02Z or 03Z this evening as these will be largely driven by diurnal heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 85 69 86 / 40 50 30 40 San Angelo 71 88 70 87 / 30 60 40 50 Junction 71 87 70 87 / 20 70 40 70 Brownwood 71 88 70 87 / 20 60 30 50 Sweetwater 70 83 69 84 / 50 50 40 40 Ozona 70 88 70 85 / 20 60 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-051945- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of west central Texas. Although severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may result in localized flooding. Dangerous lightning will also be likely with any of these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Periods of thunderstorms are expected across west central Texas through the first half of this week. The main threats will be localized flooding and dangerous lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS Employee reported 2 to 3 inches of water covering the road.
A trained spotter reported 3 inches of water covering Avenue N by Angelo State University.
An Amateur Radio operator reported water over the road on College Hills at the Red Arroyo.
The public reported flooding on Ranch Road 783 just south of US 87.
The Sweetwater Police Department reported flooding along a portion of an I-20 service road.
The Abilene Fire Department reported flooding along a portion of an I-20 access road on the northeast side of Abilene. The flooding resulted in a couple of water rescues.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976210, 976211, 976213, 976214, 976216, 976217.