A cluster of supercell thunderstorms developed along a boundary in Northwest Kansas and moved west. These storms produced up to golf ball sized hail and up to 90 MPH wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
A cluster of supercell thunderstorms developed along a boundary in Northwest Kansas and moved west. These storms produced up to golf ball sized hail and up to 90 MPH wind gusts. The strongest winds occurred in northern Gove County where a large evergreen tree was uprooted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 3:13 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 313 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334 is now in effect through 10PM MDT/11PM CDT for counties along and south of a line from Sherman to Graham counties in Northwest Kansas and Cheyenne county in Eastern Colorado. Primary threats will be hail up to 2" in size and wind gusts up to 70 mph. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Warm and muggy this afternoon with a chance for thunderstorms. A few may be severe. Drier tomorrow until a cold front arrives during the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday. Currently, satellite shows cloud streets beginning to form in the Eastern portions of the Tri-State area. With dewpoints in the upper 60's and model soundings suggesting that the air column is saturated up to 300mb-500mb, most of the area has plenty of moisture available for storms. PWATs are also forecasted to be between 1.3 and 1.6 which is near or above the 75% percentile for most of the area. Combine these moist conditions with a relatively unstable environment (SBCAPE and MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/KG, CIN near 0 J/KG, and steep lapse rate through mid level that are 8C or greater) and there is plenty available for storms to develop and become strong to severe. The main reasons the severe threat is not higher is that there is relatively weak flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere and the surface boundary in the area is further west from the more ideal conditions. Near the surface, flow is generally out of the south but shifts to being out of the north as you get past 700mb with weak to no flow inbetween. This is limiting the effective shear to 30 knots or less. This shear could still help storms become severe, but it lowers the chances for supercells and may have the storms be more multicellular which could increase the risk for locally heavy rainfall. With no clear trigger though to start storms, currently have low chance POPs across much of the area as storms are likely to be more like air mass storms to start if they do end up forming. After that, outflow boundaries will help serve as a storm focus. But the big question with all of this is can storms get going and where they would then start. This evening and into tonight, storm chances will remain before midnight but are expected to shift south during this time period. Winds are expected to lighten, especially after midnight. Cloud cover will decrease as drier air moves in aloft and lows are expected to be in the 60's with upper 60's possible east of Highway 83. For Monday, drier conditions are expected during the daytime hours as relatively drier air moves in aloft. Surface dewpoints could still be in the 60's, but there does not appear to be much in the form of forcing that could trigger storms. At 500mb, the ridge over the four corners region may nose over the area during the day which will help keep conditions dry and warm. 850mb temps suggest that high temperatures will be similar to today in the low to mid 90's. Tomorrow night and into Tuesday morning, cloud cover will increase from the west as a frontal boundary moves into and through the area. Winds are expected to shift to out of the west and a few showers and storms may form along the boundary. Any precip would be favored more in Eastern Colorado but could last to parts of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Lows are still expected to be in the 60's, but Eastern Colorado may have some locales see 50's instead. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 For the extended period, the main wx focus remains on the hot conditions expected for most days. Models continue to show 500mb ridge meandering from the central Rockies/4-corners region to eventually settling along the west coast by Friday afternoon/evening. A shortwave and associated cold front will work along the eastern side of the upper ridge and into the Plains region Tuesday into Wednesday. Still some timing issues with the fropa due to surface ridge blocking east. The area will see 1-2" PW values during its passage, so the threat for locally heavy rainfall, along with some potential severe due to instability ahead of the front, is possible. Late Wednesday into early Friday will remain dry, with another potential front to move thru the region mainly for the upcoming weekend based on the latest GFS/ECMWF timing. For temps, highs across the region extended will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday, trending down slightly on Wednesday for all areas seeing 80s. Thursday and Friday will have 90s across the region. Going into next weekend, the chance for light precipitation will have mainly 80s for highs. Overnight lows will range mainly in the 60s, warmest east. Some locales east of Hwy 25 Thursday night may only drop into 70F range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 For KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly between 18-02Z. Given the expected short lived nature of any storms that develop, it is hard to predict when or if storms will pass through the site. Will continue to monitor. Otherwise, winds are expected to have a more easterly component during the afternoon and early evening hours before switching back to being roughly out of the south. Winds are expected to be come light and variable a few hours after midnight. For KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly between 18-02Z. Given the expected short lived nature of any storms that develop, it is hard to predict when or if storms will pass through the site. Will continue to monitor. A few clouds are also developing near the airport, but are expected to remain above 3000ft. Winds are expected to become light and variable shortly after midnight. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...KAK SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...KAK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 307 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-052115- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 307 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 /407 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for counties along and south of a line from Sherman to Graham county in Northwest Kansas. Cheyenne county in Eastern Colorado is also included in the watch. The watch is in effect until 10pm MDT/11pm CDT. There is a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours across much of the Tri-State area. A few storms could be severe with hail as the main threat though cloud to ground lightning would also be present and a few wind gusts up to 60mph can't be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thunderstorm chances exist Monday night through Tuesday night. The primary hazard will be cloud to ground lightning. There is also a chance for thunderstorms Saturday evening and night with cloud to ground lightning as the primary threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
347 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021
KSZ015-016-029-042115-
Gove KS-Sheridan KS-Graham KS-
347 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Morland, or 13 miles northeast of Quinter, moving
south at 10 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Morland, Saint Peter and Studley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3913 10015 3909 10015 3909 10028 3936 10022
3938 10000 3913 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 001DEG 9KT 3924 10011
JNThe Goodland radar (KGLD), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:29 UTC.
4 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Caller reported various sized hail, mostly pea to dime in size with a few quarter sized stones mixed in.
Caller reported a full grown evergreen tree was uprooted as a strong supercell moved over the location.
Caller reported estimated 50 to 70 mph winds that lasted for a duration of 10 minutes as a supercell thunderstorm moved over the location. The strong winds were able to snap three inch diameter tree branches off of trees on the property.
Quarter to golf ball sized hail fell in the city of Tribune over a duration of five minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 973208, 973210, 973209, 973211, 973212, 973213.