NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 29, 3:31 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 29, 3:31 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
431 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure will remain in place across the eastern
US through Saturday then pass north across New England toward Quebec
on Sunday. High pressure will build slowly into the region through
next week locking a cool and dry airmass across the area through the
end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
What has changed: A Flood Watch has been issued for the Passaic
Basin.
Timing: Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are moving through
Delmarva this afternoon and will start to pivot towards the north
and east through this evening and tonight. Thunder is limited and
looks to remain mostly confined to our Delaware, Maryland, and
extreme southern New Jersey areas. Rain may be heavy at times as it
starts to move into the region, though rainfall amounts still don't
look to be much more than 1-2" across the forecast area. The period
for the strongest winds is from this afternoon through late this
evening, with the winds increasing in speed from south to north.
Hazards: The main hazards with this system remain moderate/major
coastal flooding (more below in the tides/coastal flood section),
strong winds, and some areas of heavy rain.
Strong winds: No changes were made to the wind headlines this
afternoon though there could be a case made for expanding the High
Wind Warning further up the New Jersey coastline and into the
Delaware Bay zones. However, model soundings continue to show winds
just below warning criteria and looking at current obs, we might not
see much higher than what is currently forecast. So we held off any
any expansions and will let the current headlines ride as they are.
Would not be surprised to see a few stronger gusts as far north as
Ocean/Monmouth county but the jet weakens as it moves through and
not confident enough that we will see those higher winds across such
a large area.
Heavy rain: Latest trends continue to be downward with some slight
increases mainly across Delmarva. The rain moves to the north rather
quickly but there is some concern that enhancement may occur across
northern New Jersey in the upslope flow. Additionally, there remains
some chance for localized flooding, especially in areas that had
flooding earlier this week and in the coastal areas where the heavy
rain may arrive at the time of high tide and could exacerbate the
flooding in those areas.
Flood Watch: Main concern is for the Passaic basin, which is still
dealing with runoff from Monday/Tuesday. Pine Brook on the Passaic
River is in flood and not expected to fall below flood stage before
starting to rise once again. There is concern that we could see
additional rises at Chatham, Singac, and Little Falls. As result,
we have issued a Flood Watch for Morris County.
Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Best chances for any strong to
severe storms looks to be confined to Delmarva even though
instability looks fairly meager this afternoon. The main concern is
that with such strong wind shear between the surface and winds
aloft, we could see some of the stronger showers/storms start to
spin. We will need to monitor this as any rotating storm could
potentially produce a tornado.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The system starts to wind down as we head into Saturday and things
should start to dry out from southwest to northeast late Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night, with rain possible through much of
the day as the low starts to track to the north and east. Rain may
linger along and north of the I-78 corridor through Saturday night.
The strong east winds will slacken off and become more southwesterly
through the day. Don't fully expect the skies to clear but would not
be surprised to see peeks of sun, moreso over southern areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moving into the long-term a period of generally quiet weather is
anticipated. The low pressure system from the weekend continues to
move away from the area with the H5 trough moving through near the
beginning of the period. The GFS and EC differ on the timing, but
both of these have the trough well off the coast by 00Z Monday with
the associated low pressure center well into Canada. High
temperatures on Sunday look to be a couple of notches lower than on
Saturday across the CWA. Later Sunday into Monday features mainly a
zonal flow with winds shifting around to the southwest a bit as the
next cold front starts to move southward. This cold front is
projected to move through much of the area later in the day Monday,
but at this point the precipitation potential looks pretty limited.
The EC has the front getting right about to the Mason-Dixon Line by
00Z Tuesday, but the GFS has a slower progression. Northern areas
have the best potential to get any precipitation into Tuesday, but
POP remain under 20 there. Behind this front, expect CAA
starting later Monday. By Tuesday, expect high temperatures
ranging from the middle 60s in the southern portions of Delaware
and a couple of degrees within 60 along and near the I-95
corridor. Temperatures in the Poconos may struggle to reach 50
on Tuesday. Wednesday continues the push of cooler air with high
temperatures dropping another 2-4 degrees from Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 03Z Saturday...Mostly MVFR ceilings developing through 21Z
which will lower to near IFR after 21Z. A band of moderate to heavy
rain showers will move across the area between 21Z and 03Z. This
will result in visibility restrictions to MVFR or IFR locally at
times. Easterly winds around 15-25 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts are
expected through 03Z. Given the high surface wind speeds and gusts,
we've opted to not include LLWS in the TAFs, although it should be
noted that easterly winds of around 50-60 kts will exist around
3,000 ft above the ground likely resulting in significant low-level
turbulence.
After 03Z Saturday...Ceilings should improve slowly to MVFR or VFR
through around 12Z, although RDG and ABE are likely to remain MVFR
through the TAF period. Some lingering showers or drizzle are
possible through 12Z as well. The winds will diminish rapidly in the
wake of the band of showers after 03Z to around 5-10 kts from the
southeast. Moderate confidence on the overall evolution.
Saturday...Mostly VFR ceilings, although some lingering broken MVFR
ceilings are possible especially at RDG and ABE. Some light rain is
possible, but should remain light resulting in limited visibility
restrictions overall. Winds southeasterly around 5-10 kts. Moderate
confidence overall.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Ceiling restrictions possible, but confidence is
low in the timing and spacial extent of any lower ceilings. Winds
southwesterly around 5 kts or less.
Sunday through Wednesday...VFR. West to northwesterly winds around 5-
15 kts during the daytime hours becoming 5 kts or less at night.
High confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Delaware Bay and the coastal
waters of northern and central New Jersey. Storm Warnings remain for
the coastal waters off southern New Jersey and Delaware. Extended
the end time for the Storm Warning until 9pm.
A strong low level jet will cross the area waters this afternoon and
evening, with winds increasing from south to north. There is a
chance that we could see a few storm force gust in the lower
Delaware Bay and as far north as the Atlantic coastal waters.
However, confidence is not as high for those areas so have left a
Gale Warning in place for now. Once the strongest winds have passed,
winds will quickly drop over the area waters (again from south to
north). A period of SCA conditions, due to seas above 5 ft, are
likely to continue on the ocean waters through Saturday night.
Outlook...
Sunday...Seas will remain elevated on the ocean with winds gusting
near 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisories may be needed through Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday...Seas should fall below 5 feet by early
Monday with sub-SCA conditions expected on the area waters through
Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is increasing concern for significant tidal and coastal
flooding with high tide cycles today. In many of these cases, the
areas with the highest risk will be back bays and tidal tributaries
where water won't have a chance to drain between tides, so tidal
levels will compound with multiple high tide cycles.
For the Tidal Delware River and adjacent tributaries: Major tidal
flooding is now expected with the high tide late this afternoon into
this evening. This is a change from the previous forecast which was
for moderate flooding with this high tide cycle. However, tide
levels continue to track higher than several models, so have
increased the forecast above most models. With the high tide cycle
this morning, widespread minor tidal flooding, with some areas
reaching moderate, is expected. The start time of the coastal
flood warning has been adjusted to cover the earlier high tide,
though the primary concern remains with the high tide this
evening.
For the tidal and coastal areas of Atlantic, Ocean, and southeastern
Burlington Counties: Moderate tidal flooding is now expected with
the high tide this afternoon. This will be different than most tidal
flooding scenarios we see, as I actually expect the oceanfront
to have more minor impacts, but back bays, including and
especially Barnegat Bay will likely have significant impacts (we
already saw significant flooding with the high tide late
yesterday), and could experience tidal flooding for a longer
duration than what we typically see (a few hours centered around
the time of high tide).
For the Chesapeake Bay: The high tide this afternoon could touch
moderate flooding levels, though the tide of biggest concern remains
the high tide tonight when widespread moderate tidal flooding is
expected. Current forecast is just slightly below major tidal
flooding, so will need to watch the tidal departures of the earlier
high tide today to see if any adjustments will be needed.
For the Delaware Bay, Delaware Coast, Cape May County: No changes
from the previous forecast. Still expecting moderate tidal flooding
with the high tide today. As with other areas, back bays, especially
Little Assawoman Bay in DE will likely see the most significant
impacts.
For tidal areas of Middlesex and Monmouth Counties: Due to a later
arrival of the strongest onshore flow, still expecting widespread
minor tidal flooding with the high tide today.
After today, we should see some improvement, though it will likely
take at least a few high tide cycles for back bays to fully drain,
so additional tidal and coastal flooding will be possible going into
Saturday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ070-071-
106.
NJ...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday
night for NJZ008.
Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ020-
026-027.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ013-014-020-026-
027.
Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016-
021>025.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ024.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016-021>023-
025.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ015-
017>019.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ012>014.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
DEZ001>004.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>003.
MD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>452.
Storm Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.
&&
Synopsis...Staarmann
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Clayton
Aviation...Staarmann
Marine...Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI