Damaging Winds in Nevada, July 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
357 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Another warm day is on tap for the region as well
above normal temperatures continue. Moisture in central and
portions of northern Nevada will bring a threat for showers and
thunderstorms, though some of the storms in northern Nevada may be
dry. Winds will be breezy each afternoon.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Leftover convective
activity can bee seen leaving White Pine county this early
morning. Satellite loop also shows the enhanced clouds moving
eastward across Elko and White Pine counties. Latest near term
models for the early evening hours depicts limited to no activity
starting across the area. However, once daytime heating begins, so
will the convection. For today, it will be another warm one but
afternoon highs will be off a few degrees from some of the records
seen in the last few days. Readings will be in the mid 90s to low
100s. Winds will be breezy especially in the north but will be
below advisory thresholds. Storms are once again expected to
develop across central Nevada, and northeast into portions of Elko
county. Main threats will be cloud to ground lightning and outflow
winds to 50 mph. By tonight, activity is expected to continue into
the early evening hours but will diminish after midnight.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

On Wednesday, the ridge will be further depressed southward with
a weak area of low pressure developing over the West Coast of the
United States. This will bring a west and southwest flow to the
area. This means limiting the expected thunderstorm coverage to
south of and including the US Highway 50 corridor. High
temperatures will continue to be quite warm with readings in the
90s to maybe low 100s. Winds will once again be breezy but
readings will be below any thresholds.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday...

The strong upper ridge over the West continues to slowly weaken
and move a bit eastward Thursday through early in the weekend as
a longwave trof starts to build into the Pacific Northwest. The trof
is now looking like it will not dig as deeply into the West as
previous runs indicated and therefore while gradients will be
tight enough for afternoon winds on Friday and Saturday, they may
not be as strong as originally thought. Temperatures will remain
above normal and warmest valleys will still be in the mid to
upper 90's through Saturday. Thursday afternoon could see dry
thunderstorms in eastern Nevada but will likely be more build-ups
with Virga then anything. Friday and Saturday look to be dry as
the little moisture that we had gets cut off.

It appears that on Sunday the upper high may start strengthening
again and building back into the West just enough to start
bring temperatures up again in Nevada and possibly be positioned
to open the door back up to some monsoonal moisture returning on
Monday, but its looking more like it will not be until Tuesday
before the moisture makes it this far north. Resultant cloud cover
will help to dictate just how high the temperatures get, possibly
preventing heat from once again approaching record levels.

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.AVIATION...Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected at
all terminals during the afternoon. Smoke from wildfires west of
the forecast area will continue to plague TAF sites with periods
of slightly lower visibility, particularly across the northern TAF
sites. Thunderstorms will also be possible across the central
with KELY and KTPH being impacted. There is the possibility of
both stronger storms and storms lingering into the overnight
hours. Strong gusty outflows will be possible from any
thunderstorms.

Very high density altitudes will also be present during the
afternoon due to hot daytime temperatures.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing precipitable water values nearing an
inch are expected across central Nevada today. Although storm
speeds are anticipated to be 15 knots or so, expecting a
transition to more wet storms in fire zones 425-427. Further north
where precipitable water values are not as high, storms will be
more dry and isolated. Main threats will remain the lightning and
also outflow winds to 50 mph.

The west to southwest flow will bring in drier air, especially in
the north for Wednesday. Precipitable water values are still
forecast to be above 0.75 inches across northeast Nye and White
Pine counties and that is where the higher PoP values exist. The
drier continues its eastward progression into Thursday as well.

Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon though by
Friday a weak West Coast trough develops. Will need to continue
watching Friday for wind/RH products.

By the weekend, models want to reestablish the ridge somewhere
north of the 4-corners, which brings a more moist southerly flow
to the forecast area. Will need to keep watching this scenario as
well for possible dry thunderstorms.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Humboldt
County-Northeastern Nye County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Southeastern Elko
County.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Southwest Elko
County.

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86/90/99/86