NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 24, 7:46 PM PST, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 24, 7:46 PM PST, 4 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
746 PM PST Sun Jan 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A very cold winter weather system will move into the
area tonight and Monday bringing potential for significant high
elevation snow and a wintry mix to the lower elevations Monday night
into Tuesday. Strong winds are also expected across western San
Bernardino County on Monday. This system exits Tuesday with another
to follow Wednesday and Thursday. This late week system will provide
the Sierra Nevada and White Mountains a prolonged period of heavy
snow with chances for precipitation spreading to the remainder of
the area by the end of the work week.
&&
.UPDATE...Updated to remove mention of evening precipitation from
the Las Vegas Valley as we are still enjoying the calm before the
storm. Radar detecting widespread rain across the central valley of
California with isolated-scattered showers from Santa Barbara County
south into San Diego County. Deep, closed low still progged to close
off over the western Mojave Desert Monday morning. Low will slowly
slide east through Tuesday morning producing widespread
precipitation for the region. Most of this will fall in the form of
snow at elevation above 3000 feet. Lower CO River Valley will see
all rain. Just trailing the system tomorrow strong winds are
forecast to develop across the western Mojave Desert and Morongo
Basin. Current suite of headlines looks fine and no additional
highlight will be added this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night.
Numerous weather headlines in effect for Monday into Tuesday morning
as we gear up for our first significant, low elevation winter
weather event in a couple of years. An area of low pressure will
drop down the Western CONUS on Monday bringing widespread impacts.
Through the day, this low pressure will close off and move directly
through our forecast area, supplying the dynamics and cold
temperatures for impacts to persist through the evening and
overnight hours. As such, primary times of concern will be the
morning commute both Monday and Tuesday. Let's get into some of the
details...
Precipitation chances will increase markedly across the entire
forecast area early Monday morning, starting in the Sierra Nevada
and pushing eastward. This system will be quite cold, with a 532-536
mb low queued to drop down the center of our forecast area. As such,
snow levels will drop fairly low during this event. Snow levels will
range from 3000 to 4000 ft overnight Sunday into Monday, resulting
in a total of 3-6 inches of snow for the Sierra Nevada, White
Mountains, Esmeralda County, NV and central Nye County, NV. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in place for these areas starting Sunday night
at 7pm and lasting through 4pm PST Monday afternoon that looks in
good shape.
As the low pushes eastward through the forecast area, picking up
moisture and utilizing afternoon "heating" and dynamics to its
advantage, impacts will begin for the higher elevations of southern
Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Winter Storm Watches were upgraded
to Winter Storm Warnings for these areas overnight. They go into
effect 4am Monday morning through 4am PST Tuesday morning for the
Clark County mountains (Spring Mountains and Sheep Range), and
elevations above 4000 ft in Lincoln County, NV and northeastern San
Bernardino County, CA and above 2000 ft in Mohave County, excluding
the Lake zones. NBM and WPC Guidance continue to advertise 8-16
inches of snow above 6000ft in the Spring Mountains and 4-8 inches
of snow around Mountain Springs, the higher elevations of Red Rock
Canyon, the Mojave National Preserve and on I-15 at Mountain Pass
with slightly higher amounts in the higher elevations of Mohave
County. As such hazardous travel is possible. Take caution if
planning regional travel and consider alternate routes.
In addition to these Warnings, there is also a Winter Weather
Advisory for western and southern Clark County including the Las
Vegas Valley. Not much has changed between the overnight and the
afternoon forecast package regarding QPF. There remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding low elevation snowfall. Precipitation will
occur. But will it be snow or rain? For this answer, we largely look
at forecast snow levels. In other words, at what elevations can we
expect snow to fall instead of rain? If we give the NBM 800 to 1000
ft wiggle room on either side of the forecast snow levels, this
could result in quite a snow total discrepancy. Unfortunately, many
of our areas, particularly cities that lie in valleys, have wide
ranges of elevation changes over small areas. As such, cities
including Las Vegas, Yucca Valley, and Mesquite to Beaver Dam, can
expect 1-3", but the lower elevation parts of these areas may only
see flurries. Though chances exist Monday morning, the highest
chances will be Tuesday morning as snow levels plummet overnight.
Those commuting from the far western portions of the Las Vegas
Valley may experience travel impacts, if for no reason other than
traffic pile-ups from people taking photos (please don't take photos
while driving). Additionally, Travel concerns in these cities aren't
expected to be substantial, as the concrete and asphalt shouldn't be
cold enough for much to accumulate on roadways.
Elsewhere, precipitation that falls as rain will range from 0.25 to
0.50" through the event. Residual CAPE values across portions of
Mohave County could amount to an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. If
this comes to fruition, locally higher precipitation rates are
expected, though this is not anticipated to be the prevailing
weather phenomena.
Widespread gusty winds anticipated across the region Monday. In
Esmeralda County, northerly winds with gusts 30-35 mph expected; in
southern Mohave County, southerly winds with gusts 30-35 mph
expected with higher elevations seeing gusts to 40 mph; in San
Bernardino County, westerly winds sustained between 30 and 40 mph
and gusts 50-55 mph expected. As a result, there remains a Wind
Advisory in effect for northwestern and south-central San Bernardino
County including Barstow-Daggett, Yucca Valley and Twentynine Palms
beginning 8am Monday and lasting through 9pm PST. WFO Hanford has a
High Wind Warning against our border in Kern County. This
afternoon's forecast update had minimal changes to gust intensity,
so unlikely that we will need to upgrade to a High Wind Warning in
our portions of San Bernardino County, but will keep an eye on it as
the system evolves nevertheless.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.
Mid-to-late next week, another weather system is expected to drop
down the Western CONUS and bring active weather. This system
continues to take on a westward trajectory before curling into the
Desert Southwest. As a result, it will pick up a substantial amount
of moisture from the Pacific as it aligns with a fairly robust
atmospheric river surge. This moisture will smack into the Sierra
Nevada and wring out. Forecast snowfall totals for the Sierra and
White Mountains are on the order of feet, not inches, with 1 to 3
feet currently forecast above 6000 ft. Snow accumulations for the
Owens Valley continue to have low-to-moderate confidence, as it will
depend on the amount of moisture that makes it up and over the
Sierra. That said, they aren't expected to be left out altogether.
The Owens Valley can expect 4-8 inches of snow with over a foot
possible over 4500 ft which will cause significant travel impacts in
the valley. Ensemble members highlighted in ECMWF and GEFS
meteograms indicate much higher values than this for Bishop, but
historically, these values have not been representative of reality,
and thus we are taking them with a grain of salt.
With these incredible snowfall amounts expected on top of what these
areas have received/will receive at the start of the week, Winter
Storm Watches have been coordinated with our neighbors at the Reno
WFO for the Sierra Nevada, Owens Valley and White Mountains from 7pm
Tuesday night through 4am PST Friday morning. Though we can't
discuss exact snow totals with certainty at this moment, we can say
that impacts to area roadways will be major with very difficult to
impossible travel expected on Highway 395, State Route 168 through
Westgard Pass, Highway 190 and Highway 136.
Elsewhere, not looking to be many impacts. Additional snowfall
accumulation on the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range as well as
Lincoln and Nye counties possible between 2 and 3 inches, with up to
6 additional inches at the higher elevations above 7000 ft. Snow
totals in Esmeralda County increased quite a bit for this event from
the previous run. A Winter Weather Advisory may need to be hoisted
for this county, but the NBM does not seem too sold on 24-hour
amounts reaching criteria. Will keep an eye on how the forecast
trends in this area over the next couple of shifts.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Diurnal winds with minimal impacts
expected to continue through the evening before winds start to pick
up around midnight from the southwest. At this time, there exists a
chance of light showers, though prevailing rain showers don't enter
the TAF until 11Z. Through the early morning, showers will become
more prevailing and ceilings will sink substantially, potentially
dropping below 1 kft at times with a drop in visibility below 4 SM.
Rain chances and low clouds will continue intermittently through the
TAF period with gusty southerly winds around 20 kts.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds with minimal impacts expected
to continue through the afternoon as conditions improve across the
Colorado River Valley and Mohave County. Around midnight, shower
potential enters the forecast for the Las Vegas Valley and Owens
Valley TAF sites. Prevailing chances start in the early morning
hours between 11 and 12Z. Showers will likely fall as snow at KBIH,
coupled with gusty winds to 20 kts, visibilities could drop below 3
SM. Areawide as showers develop, ceilings could drop below 1 kft at
times. Showers and low clouds will continue intermittently through
the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
UPDATE...Pierce
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Varian
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