Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, January 25 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
239 PM PST Sun Jan 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A winter system will bear down on portions of northern
and central Nevada beginning tonight and continuing into late
Monday and early Tuesday. After a brief break on Wednesday, a
threat for light snow showers develops on Thursday with the
possibility of another winter system on Friday and Saturday.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Persistent patchy
freezing fog and low clouds are continuing to hang around the area
with some sunshine trying to peak through. With the low clouds and
fog, temperatures have struggled to reach the 30s.

A West Coast trough will be pushing across California during the
overnight. Snow showers are expected to develop across portions of
Humboldt county during the overnight, and spread into central
Nevada by early Monday morning. A surface low does generate later
on Monday and moves eastward. Current trends are similar to
previous model runs and headlines are on track. With respect to
snow amounts, looking at 2 to 5 inches in the advisory area,
though some locally higher amounts are possible. In Humboldt
county, expecting about an inch or two and less than an inch
across northern Lander/Eureka and Elko counties. Overnight lows
will be in the teens and 20s with light winds.

The track of the upper low will take it slowly into northern
Arizona by Monday night and Tuesday. Some scattered snow showers
will be possible across portions of NE Nye and White Pine counties
with perhaps a half inch to an inch of additional accumulation.
Overnight lows will be in the teens to 20s. The upper low
continues its slow eastward trajectory Tuesday with a weak
shortwave ridge trying to move in. This will bring a brief break
in the weather though temperatures will be in the 30s. The next
weather system will bring the threat of light showers during the
overnight Tuesday. Overnight lows will once again be in the teens
and 20s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

Persistent polar vortex centered north of Hudson Bay will dominate
the Great Basin through the week. The low's trough extends
southwest into the Pacific west of Baja, with a series of small closed
lows or deep short waves moving into the interior west. The nearly
continuous nature of these relatively weak systems will tend to
keep the flow of moisture into the Great Basin steady through
Friday. Dries out a bit next weekend. Temps will be normal to a
little above, which will act to inhibit overall snow accumulation.
Still, the period of Wednesday 12Z through Saturday 18Z will be
be the main one to watch. Snow totals will generally be light in
northern and northwest Nevada to nearly nil in southeast Elko
County with some areas mixing with rain a lot. Central Nevada,
especially higher terrain could see a few travel issues. Not
convinced that winter weather products will be needed yet, as the
even will be extended rather than intense, according to today's
models. Some disagreement appears later in the period so we need
to pay attention to model changes.

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.AVIATION...A departing weather system which brought snow and fog
to the region will still keep some low clouds and VCFG around
through Sunday. The next system starts pushing higher and middle
clouds into the Great Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. This
should inhibit complete fog dissipation, but allow it to lift as
lower decks. Not expecting more fog Sunday night/Monday morning
but new snow begins over night at KWMC, then KBAM, and KEKO then
to KELY and KTPH Monday morning. Cigs and visbys will likely drop
to MVFR at times. Mountain obscurations will be widespread in the
region.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Tuesday for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

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