Extreme drought (D3) over Boyd County and Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County. Slight improvement in class from previous week.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LBF wrote it up.
Extreme drought (D3) over Boyd County and Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County. Slight improvement in class from previous week.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 10:36 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1136 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A surface boundary will combine with short wave energy rounding the top of the western ridge to generate some scattered showers/thunderstorms near the Black Hills tonight. This activity will then push into Nebraska late tonight near Valentine with further southward progress close to I-80 before dissipating late Tuesday morning. This early convection is not expected to be particularly noteworthy but it will impact the convective environment and affect storm development later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Ensemble guidance has trended up with shear and forcing Tuesday evening into Tuesday night in response to amplifying low level jet being depicted deeper into central Nebraska instead of off to our southeast. However, median CAPE values are trending down for much of the region as cold pool and remnant clouds from early convection limit insolation and diurnal instability. The best synoptic forcing still resides well off to our north across the Dakotas where short wave energy will be more robust. The best signal for an organized severe threat will be across South Dakota with thunderstorms potentially building far enough south to bring a hail/wind threat to northern Nebraska from Sheridan county through Holt and Boyd mainly Tuesday night. Confidence in this scenario is low and will still have to keep an eye on any storms that form further to the south or advect in from the west where slightly better instability may reside. The upper short wave is not in a big hurry to push through so a chance for showers/storms will linger into Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Trends in ensemble guidance continue to gradually reamplify the pattern with the western ridge building and having a greater influence over the Plains by the time we start heading into next week. So after a quiet day on Thursday, Nebraska will be in a ring of fire type scenario as the ridge builds in with a persistent boundary draped across the region and a daily chance for showers/thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 VFR conditions expected to prevail through tomorrow night. Confidence continues to increase in thunderstorms impacting northern terminals later this morning, including at VTN. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected across western and northern Nebraska late this evening and tonight, though confidence in timing is low. Future additional inclusion of TSRA is likely at VTN once confidence in thunderstorm timing grows. Southerly low level wind shear development is anticipated across southwest into central Nebraska into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds will shift to southerly tomorrow afternoon at around 10kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Brown
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service North Platte NE 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132015- Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden- Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson- Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier- Western Cherry- 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 /208 PM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central Nebraska. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday morning across northern Nebraska, and for all of western and north central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and overnight into Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may be severe on Tuesday afternoon and overnight, capable of producing large hail and strong winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday into the weekend. The severe threat is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at http://www.weather.gov/northplatte
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought (D3) over central and eastern Boyd County, Severe drought (D2) over part of western Boyd Co, Moderate drought (D1) over far western Boyd. Change from previous week includes D2 to D1 in the far western portions.
Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County, Moderate drought (D1) over parts of northwest and northeast Holt County, and Abnormally dry (D0) over southern portions. Changes from previous week include D2 to D1 northwest and northeast, and D1 to D0 south of Hwy 20.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 963350, 963352.