Intense low pressure system brings prolonged period of strong to severe wind gusts to south central Nebraska from the early morning hours on the 14th, though the afternoon on the 15th. The initial surge of strong wind gusts of 50-60mph occurred along and behind of a strong cold front that was associated with an intense (sub-990 mb) surface low pressure near the North Dakota/Canada border.
Every event with a place to put it; 26 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Intense low pressure system brings prolonged period of strong to severe wind gusts to south central Nebraska from the early morning hours on the 14th, though the afternoon on the 15th. The initial surge of strong wind gusts of 50-60mph occurred along and behind of a strong cold front that was associated with an intense (sub-990 mb) surface low pressure near the North Dakota/Canada border. This initial surge of northwesterly wind gusts arrived during the early morning hours of January 13th, between midnight and 2am. Wind gusts weakened for a period early Thursday morning before increasing once again during the mid to late morning as the primary surface low dropped southeast from northern MN into northeast IA. The strong winds were the result of steep low level lapse rates and efficient mixing into an intense low level jet. The deep mixing also resulted in low relative humidity values near 20 percent, which when combined with the intense winds, produced dangerous fire weather conditions across south central Nebraska during the afternoon of the 14th. A Red Flag Warning was in effect when a large wildfire started in Webster County. This wildfire spread rapidly in the strong winds and travelled nearly 9 miles before being contained in western Nuckolls County. The main impacts were the burning of around 7000 acres and a few residential evacuations, however, no major structures were impacted and no injuries were reported.
Wind gusts up to 65mph are not terribly unusual for this area, but what set this system apart from many others was the long duration of strong winds - around 24 to 36 hours! In fact, despite many areas reaching High Wind Warning criteria on Thursday, March 14, the majority of south central Nebraska actually experienced their peak wind gusts from this event during the morning hours of the 15th, in which 65 to 70 mph gusts were measured. Damage and impacts from the high wind were fairly typical, generally ranging from tree and power line damage to some roof damage. There were no known widespread or long-lasting power outages from this event at the time of this writing.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 7:37 PM CST, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
737 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Quick note about the High Wind Warning going into effect later
tonight:
Everything outlined below by preceding day shift forecaster
remains very-much on track. However, did opt to delay the
"official start time" of the Warning from 9PM to 11PM, as it's
looking pretty unlikely that any intense winds will enter our
north-northwest zones before the 11PM-Midnight time frame. Of
course, even 11PM is still plenty early for especially the
southeast half of the CWA (where winds will obviously arrive
later), but at least it's an improvement versus 9PM. Opted not to
complicate matters by doing northwest vs. southeast segments, as
this was not considered "worth it" for a wind-surge-arrival
difference of only a few hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
Forecast concerns continue to center around severe wind, critical
fire weather, and potential for snow/blowing snow...all within next
48 hrs.
Changes with this forecast package:
- Have upgraded High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning from 03Z tonight
to 06Z Thu night (moved up start time to account for faster
frontal timing)
- Upgraded Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Thu aftn, and
expanded aerial coverage
- Maintained High Wind Watch for late Thursday night into Friday
- Incr potential for snow and added small area of blowing snow for Fri
across NE CWA.
Main points of emphasis:
- Confidence remains high for a prolonged high wind event, though
true warning criteria may be less pervasive on Fri compared to
tonight-Thu. The worst wind may be with the initial burst along
and immediately behind the cold front tonight where isolated
wind gusts of 65 to 70 mph appear possible.
- Dangerous fire weather conditions likely over S third of CWA Thu
aftn. A northward expansion of warning another tier of counties
may be needed.
- While not the most obvious aspect of this forecast, still looks
like we could be teetering on a fine line between near-blizzard
conditions vs. very little or no snow on Fri. This will all
depend on location of closed upper low, but may need some sort
of winter headline over far E/NE portions of CWA.
Forecast Details:
First with the wind...
No major changes to the forecast, though did add some details to
wind trends for tonight. The timing of the front appears a bit
faster, and short term hi-res models have been persistent in
showing a particularly intense burst of wind, lasting 30-90 min,
immediately along and just behind the initial cold front. Seems
reasonable given observed/forecast 3 hr pres rises on the order of
7-9+mb. HRRR and RAP forecast soundings both show 60-70kt between
H9 and H8 just behind the front, so even modest mixing supports
potential for 70mph gusts. Expect a lull from 09Z to 15Z before
incr once again is mixing depth on GFS/NAM/RAP all reach at least
H8, if not H7. Deep mixing of unidirectional flow, along with 10mb
sfc press gradient across the CWA from SW to NE, suggest high
likelihood for near 60mph gusts late AM thru late aftn or early
eve. Decided NOT to carry warning all thru Thu night and Fri just
yet as confidence is lower. Models indicate substantially more cld
cover, less mixing, and slightly weaker sfc pres gradient ~8mb.
Soundings also show deep layer winds not quite as unidirectional
as upper trough stalls out, occludes, and gradually fills on Fri
over Mid MS Valley. Didn't want to cancel it either, though, given
EC peak wind gusts still near 48-50kt over parts of area.
Fire weather...
Deep unidirectional, downsloping winds, and at least partial
sunshine within area of subsidence argues strongly for
anomalously low Tds by Thu aftn. We know the wind will be very
strong. So not a surprise that HDWI values peak in the 90th to
95th percentile for areas along and S of the state line. As such,
upgraded to Red Flag Warning with fairly high confidence, and
expanded in areal coverage. One could argue, given magnitude of
wind, to expand further and blur the strict RH criteria. Certainly
something for later shifts to assess. More cld cover and cooler
temps should keep min RH values quite a bit higher (30-40% plus)
on Fri, but strong wind will keep fire concerns at least elevated.
Precipitation chances...
Have incr PoPs along the front tonight, as latest HRRR/RAP suggest
a narrow band of QPF along the front. Most of this looks to remain
rain, though brief wet snow may mix in. Temps should remain warm
enough to prevent impacts. The bigger issue remains the potential
for wrap around snow showers late Thu night into Fri as the upper
low pivots near the Quad Cities. Model consensus is for very lgt
QPF to graze E zones, with majority remaining JUST to the E/NE.
However, any sort of wobble to the W will incr impacts
dramatically, as it just won't take much snow to cause poor
visibility due to the strong wind. This makes for difficult
messaging as it will be a fine line between next to nothing and
near-blizzard conditions...and as of now...that line is very near
or JUST off to the E. This will need to be monitored very closely.
Very little time spent on the rest of the forecast, but the main
message looks to be mainly dry with moderating temps this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 642 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
General overview:
By FAR the main concern will be intense northwest winds (gusts of
50+KT possible at times), with an initial surge arriving overnight
and then a more prolonged stretch late Thursday morning and
through the afternoon. Despite the strong surface winds there will
also be potential for at least periodic low level wind shear
(LLWS) mainly between 03-16Z. Otherwise, confidence is fairly high
in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period, although a brief
period of scattered low-end VFR clouds cannot be ruled out around
06Z tonight (any other clodus through the period should be of the
mid-high level variety). Precipitation-wise, the vast majority of
the period will be dry, but have maintained a generic "vicinity
shower" (VCSH) from 06-09Z to account for the possibility of a few
passing rain showers. Read on for more wind-related details if
interested...
Surface winds:
For sure the lightest winds of the period are right away these
first few hours (under 10KT from the west-southwest). This changes
big-time around 06Z as an initial surge of very strong northwest
winds arrives behind a powerful front. This initial surge could
easily feature a brief period of 50+KT gusts before winds
temporarily settle back down somewhat during especially the 08-16Z
time frame (but still gusting 20-35KT). After 16Z and through the
rest of the period, expect fairly consistent very strong speeds
sustained generally 30-40KT/gusting 45-55KT.
LLWS:
Although the magnitude of low level wind shear within the lowest
1-2K ft. will not be overly-intense for much of this time frame
owing to the presence of strong winds in place at the surface,
will officially advertise LLWS throughout the 03-16Z time frame as
at least periodic shear magnitudes of 30-40KT will be possible.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to midnight CST
Thursday night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-
082>087.
High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for NEZ082>086.
KS...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to midnight CST
Thursday night for KSZ005>007-017>019.
High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...PfannkuchHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Hastings NE 814 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 141200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 814 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Overnight. A High Wind Warning goes into effect for the entire outlook area overnight due to expected northwesterly gusts of 55 to 65 MPH along a surging cold front. Please refer to the High Wind Warning statement for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A High Wind Warning continues through Thursday evening due to expected northwesterly gusts to around 60 MPH. Thereafter, a High Wind Watch remains in effect Thursday night through Friday afternoon due to the potential for periodic northwesterly gusts up to around 55 MPH. Please refer to the High Wind Warning and Watch statements for more details. Due to the combination of intense winds and dry air, near- critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely Thursday afternoon. The overall-greatest fire weather risk looks to focus near and south of the Nebraska-Kansas state line, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for that area. However, most of the remainder of the outlook area will at least experience near- critical fire weather conditions. Finally, wrap around snow showers are possible late Thursday night into the daytime Friday, mainly for areas northeast of a line from Loup City, to Hastings, to Superior Nebraska. The combination of strong winds and falling/blowing snow could result in poor visibility at times. However, actual snow accumulation should remain fairly minimal, around 1 inch or less. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, though any reports of potential high wind damage are encouraged. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1120 PM CST WED JAN 13 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1053 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW ORD 41.62N 98.95W
01/13/2021 M56 MPH VALLEY NE ASOS
ASOS STATION KODX ORD AIRPORT.
&&
MANGELSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
24 high wind, 2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 69 MPH, recorded at 10:34 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located near Waco.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 60 MPH, recorded at 7:28 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located 4 N of Shickley.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 59 MPH, recorded at 3:59 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located 2 SSE of Davenport.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 58 MPH, recorded at 6:55 AM CST on January 15th by the Aurora Airport AWOS.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 64 MPH, recorded at 1:19 AM CST on January 14th by a mesonet located 2 NNE of Superior.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 70 MPH, recorded at 2:53 AM CST on January 15th by the Ord Airport ASOS.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 60 MPH, recorded at 3:35 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located 7 NNE of Sherman Reservoir.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 69 MPH, recorded at 9:53 AM CST on January 15th by the ASOS at the Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 62 MPH, recorded at 11:26 AM CST on January 15th by the Hastings Airport ASOS.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 64 MPH, recorded at 10:05 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located 4 ENE of Odessa.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 65 MPH, recorded at 12:31 AM CST on January 14th by a mesonet located 8 S of Kearney.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 58 MPH, recorded at 12:33 AM CST on January 14th by a mesonet located 8 W of Macon.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 64 MPH, recorded at 8:20 PM CST on January 14th by a mesonet located 2 NNW of Gothenburg.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region. The peak measured gust in the county was 62 MPH, recorded at 1:09 AM CST on January 15th by a mesonet located 5 NNW of Oxford.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
Frequent gusts of 55 to 65 MPH were reported across the region.
A wildfire tracked roughly 9 miles southeast through crop and pasture land, burning upwards of 7000 acres. This fire started approximately 5 miles north of Guide Rock in Webster County around 1:30 PM CST and was eventually contained approximately 2 miles west of Bostwick in Nuckolls County by 9 PM CST. This fire crossed Highway 78 north of Guide Rock and Highway 136 near the Webster/Nuckolls County line. A total of 20 fire departments from 6 counties assisted. A few farmsteads were threatened along the path, and while fire got with a few feet of buildings, only 1 dilapidated building was burned. Residents were evacuated and no injuries were reported.
A wildfire tracked roughly 9 miles southeast through crop and pasture land, burning upwards of 7000 acres. This fire started approximately 5 miles north of Guide Rock in Webster County around 1:30 PM CST and was eventually contained approximately 2 miles west of Bostwick in Nuckolls County by 9 PM CST. This fire crossed Highway 78 north of Guide Rock and Highway 136 near the Webster/Nuckolls County line. A total of 20 fire departments from 6 counties assisted. A few farmsteads were threatened along the path, and while fire got with a few feet of buildings, only 1 dilapidated building was burned. Residents were evacuated and no injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931551, 931553, 931554, 931555, 931556, 931557, 931558, 931559, 931560, 931561, 931562, 931563, 931564, 931565, 931566, 931567, 931568, 931569, 931570, 931571, 931572, 931573, 931574, 931575, 931576, 931577.