NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 11:37 PM MST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 13, 11:37 PM MST, 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
Went ahead and started the High Wind Warning at this time, as the
system continues to rapidly evolve. Strong front can be seen
quickly pushing south across central CO, and anticipate its
arrival across the eastern plains in the very near term. Upstream
obs are showing wind gusts approaching 65 mph and expect this to
continue south into the eastern plains. Strongest winds over El
Paso and Pueblo counties might be delayed, still closer to the 1-2
AM time frame. Still anticipate highest gusts over the plains up
to 65 mph, however, upstream trends as well as some short term
guidance are suggesting there could be some brief higher gusts
approaching 70 mph late tonight into early Thursday morning.
UPDATE Issued at 827 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
Main updates this evening were to expand the High Wind Warning, to
include El Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, and Bent counties as
damaging winds and gusts are expected late tonight into Thursday
afternoon.
Relatively quiet in the near term, with the dense cirrus which had
been in place slowly pushing to the east. This trend will continue
with clearer skies expected for most places tonight. The exception
will be across the central mountains where the approaching system
will provide a quick window of light to maybe moderate snow from
late this evening through early Thursday morning. Highest/Focused
ascent and moisture look to be brief, and still anticipate only
light snow amounts. Some guidance showing some returning cloud
cover and possible precip development over the far eastern plains
in advance of this diving upper trough and strong cold front.
Would anticipate a small window of more cloud cover then precip
development later tonight, as focus looks to be stronger to the
northeast of the area and have maintained no chance pops in this
location.
Main concern this evening will be with strengthening winds and
gusts across parts of southern CO as this system pushes through.
Rather potent system with very strong mid and upper level flow
will move across the area later tonight into Thursday. An
associated strong front and CAA will also push through after
midnight, and expect northerly winds to quickly strengthen over
the plains. Forecast still look to be on track for the eastern
plains and even over the Sawatch mountains, though guidance was
coming in stronger over the plains along and north of Highway 50.
With sustained winds stronger and forecast soundings showing some
rather strong speeds in the lowest levels, felt confident to
expand the warning. Think there will be a strong push over the
plains in the 2-5AM time frame, with gusts of 60 to 65 mph now
expected. As gradient and flow look to relax, these may only
occur for a few hour time frame though, and think there might be a
lull in the highest speeds through late morning. However, flow and
gradient will strengthen once again Thursday afternoon, with gusts
of 55 to 60 mph likely returning. Have the Warning going through
late Thursday afternoon, however, its possible that the warning
may need to be extended into the evening. Guidance is varying
right now, but it's possible for gusts up to 60 mph to continue
Thursday night and quite possibly into Friday. With lower
confidence at this time, have not extended it further but will let
later forecasts adjust as need be.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
Strong upper jet over the nrn Rockies today will dip southward into
Colorado tonight and Thu as upper level low deepens over the nrn
plains. As trough passes tonight, may see just a few snow showers
over the central mountains into early Thu morning, though accums
will be minor and limited mainly to higher peaks. Main concern is
high wind potential overnight and through the day Thu. HRRR and to a
lesser extent the NAM, have been consistent with strong downslope
winds developing late tonight in the lee of Pikes Peak/Cheyenne
Mountain area, then a threat of strong winds downstream of the
Continental Divide/Sawatch Range during the day Thu as winds near
Pikes Peak subside by midday. While forward shear due to the upper
jet migrating across the area would tend to argue against a strong
mountain wave, model cross-sections/soundings suggest a brief window
near Pikes Peak early Thu morning where mountain top inversion is
strong and mid-tropospheric shear is neutral, which may be just
enough for a brief downslope wind event. Not as much of a wave set-
up farther west in the lee of the Sawatch, but 70 kt mid-level flow
down below 700 mb suggests some strong gusts over the peaks and
through downstream gaps during the day. Have hoisted a High Wind
Warning for both Teller County/Pikes Peak region and the Sawatch
Range for late tonight into Thu, though this is a low to moderate
confidence event. Suppose some gusts near high wind thresholds could
spill across Fort Carson and the west side of Colorado Springs as
well as the upper Arkansas Valley Thu morning, but confidence is too
low to include them in a warning at this point.
As cold front races through the area overnight, N-NW winds will
become gusty at many locations, with some gusts over 40 kts likely
immediately following the fropa. Strongest winds will be near the KS
border, and have started a High Wind Warning for Kiowa/Prowers
counties after 09z, though winds through the morning may be just
below criteria initially. During the day Thu, dry air mass spreads
south across the state, with breezy to very windy conditions
continuing. As mixing deepens in the afternoon, may see some 50 kt
gusts appear over the eastern plains as winds just off the surface
are in the 50-60 kt range, so will keep highlight going for
Kiowa/Prowers through the day. RH falls below 20 percent over the
plains for a few hrs Thu afternoon, but with cooler max temps,
appears we'll stay just above the 15 percent threshold, so no fire
highlights issued.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
Thursday night and Friday...A strong low pressure system located
over the upper midwest Thu evening will continue to produce strong
northerly surface winds across the eastern plains through the
evening, then again Fri aftn as the system gradually pulls away.
Clearing skies will allow overnight minimum temps to drop into the
teens to around 20F for the plains, and 0 to 15 above for the high
valleys. However, brisk winds will produce wind chills of 0 to 10
above for the plains, and 5 to 15 below zero for the high valleys.
Looking ahead to Fri, the stronger winds across the eastern plains
combined with forecast low humidity values may produce some pockets
of enhanced fire danger across Kiowa and Prowers Counties. No fire
weather highlights at this time, but will let the following shifts
have another look. Plan on highs in the 40s for the plains on Fri,
and in the 30s for the high valleys.
Saturday and Sunday...Long range models still point to an active
weather pattern through the extended, with a couple of disturbances
sweeping across the region on Sat as well as Sun night. Very little
snow is anticipated across the central mts on Sat, with amounts less
than an inch likely, and the greatest effect may be cloudy skies.
The next system approaching for Sun night looks to be a much more
significant system, initially affecting the central mts but carrying
over into the next work week. Temps will remain somewhat steady both
days, with highs in the 40s for the plains and 30s for the high
valleys.
Monday through Wednesday...GFS and EC models are agreeing that the
upper trough of low pressure that pushes into the Great Basin
late Sun will strengthen on Mon, as a closed low develops and
pulls to the south southwest into AZ. This will produce snow
across the higher terrain and adjacent plains Mon and Tue,
possibly lasting into early Wed morning depending on how long the
low lingers over AZ. The focus areas for higher snowfall amounts
will be across the eastern San Juan Mountains, southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains and the Wet Mountains. Plan on high temps at
seasonal normals on Mon, then slightly cooler for Tue and Wed,
especially across the high valleys and westward where temps will
drop by about 10 degrees. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021
At KALS, VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected for
the next 24 hours.
At KCOS and KPUB, a strong cold front moving through both terminals
is expected to bring strong north to northwest winds, gusting to
near 50 kts, beginning around 08 or 09z. The strong winds are
anticipated to continue for the next 24 hours, with a slight
decrease in winds from around 12-13z through about 19-20z and then
again after about 23-00z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at
both terminals.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ060-061-081-082-
084>086-089-093-095>098.
&&
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CARLBERG