A low pressure system associated with a deep upper shortwave underwent rapid cyclogenesis resulting in two day of high winds across eastern Nebraska. Much of the High Wind Warning would later be replaced with a Blizzard Warning.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
A low pressure system associated with a deep upper shortwave underwent rapid cyclogenesis resulting in two day of high winds across eastern Nebraska. Much of the High Wind Warning would later be replaced with a Blizzard Warning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 4:25 AM CST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
425 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
...Updated Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 424 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021
Morning satellite imagery was revealing a deep shortwave trough,
associated with a closed low migrating across southern
Manitoba,extending to the central Rockies. Tight pressure gradient
over the region, associated with the surface reflection, was
inducing wind gusts ranging from 50 to 80 mph over western NE.
Regional 88D was showing scattered precip over eastern SD/a small
portion of northeast NE/portions of northwest IA within region of
front
Today through Friday Morning
A very complex forecast to contend with this morning.The leading
edge of a surface boundary is moving across the CWA with obs
showing winds making a turn to the northwest. Models indicate
intense deepening of the upper shortwave trough as it drops
through the northern/central Plains. Matter of fact 500mb height
falls of 25dam is progged to precede the system. Mix of rain/snow
will pretty much ne in play through today mainly over the eastern
CWA where dynamic forcing will remain an influence. Contributing
to lift as well is increasing 290k isentropic upglide. With
dominate precip type being a mix any snow that may accumulate over
portions of northeast NE and portions of west-central IA should
about a half inch or less. By this evening deepening cold air
advection allow the environment to be supportive for a gradual
transition to all snow. And with the onset of snowfall, conditions
will dramatically deteriorate over the IA CWA will ensue. The
snowfall, in combination with very stout northwest winds, will
result in blizzard conditions lasting from late tonight through
Friday morning. As of now it appears that by events end Friday
afternoon, snow are expected to range from 3-5 inches over the IA
CWA. 1-3 inches then east of a line roughly from Knox county to
Pawnee in eastern NE. Otherwise an inch or less looks possible
over the rest of the CWA.
Saturday through Wednesday
Medium range models are still suggesting a gradual large scale
amplification early next week with a deep trough situated across the
CONUS extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the southeastern
states. The NBM continues to maintain dry conditions through the
period. Thus am content in making no changes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021
As mentioned in previous aviation AFD, winds will be the main
issue overnight and into Thursday. Wind gusts to 50 knots or
possibly even more possible at KOFK and KLNK from 08Z to 11Z and
at KOMA 09Z to 12Z. There will also be low level wind shear up to
60 knots. Rain and snow showers expected for a few hours at KOFK
that could trend to all snow for an hour or so. Mainly rain
expected at KOMA and KLNK but could see at least an hour of R/S
mix at KOMA. There will be some areas of MVFR ceilings overnight
and into at least Thursday morning. Ceilings may increase to VFR
for the afternoon with decreasing ceilings again toward evening.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for NEZ015-
033-034-044-045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ015-033-034-044-
045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
NEZ012-015-018-034.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
NEZ033-044-045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
for NEZ032-033-044-045-052-053-067-068-091-093.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for NEZ011-016-017-
030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ012-018.
IA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ043-
055.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-055.
Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ056-069-079-080-
090-091.
&&
DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...MillerHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 454 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 IAZ043-055-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078- 088-089-141300- Monona-Harrison-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone- Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Saline-Jefferson-Gage- 454 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday Very strong northwest winds are expected to overspread the area tonight. A high wind warning is in effect from midnight tonight until 6 am Thursday for areas generally northwest of a line from Onawa and Harlan Iowa to Omaha, Bellevue, Wahoo, Lincoln and Beatrice. Wind gusts from 50 to 60 mph are expected. Those strong winds may continue during the daytime and evening Thursday for parts of northeast Nebraska, with slightly weaker winds for the rest of the area. A rain and snow mix is expected for parts of the area tonight and Thursday. Amounts will be on the light side, roughly half an inch or less. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday Very strong northwest winds from 40 to 60 mph are expected Thursday night and Friday morning for northeast Nebraska, with slightly weaker winds for the rest of the area. There is also a winter storm watch for parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, generally along and east of a line from Hartington to Schuyler and then along and north of a line from Schuyler to Blair and Logan Iowa. A rain and snow mix Thursday night will eventually turn to all snow with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible. Near blizzard conditions will be possible in the winter storm watch area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ067-068-090>093-141300- Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Cass-Otoe- Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 454 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday Strong northwest winds are expected to spread into the area tonight and continue Thursday. Gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible during that time. A rain and snow mix is expected tonight and Thursday. Amounts will be on the light side, roughly half an inch or less. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday Strong northwest winds are possible on Thursday night and Friday behind a strong cold front. Gusts 35 to 45 mph or more will be possible during that time. There is also a winter storm watch for parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, generally along and east of a line from Hartington to Schuyler and then along and north of a line from Schuyler to Blair and Logan Iowa. A rain and snow mix Thursday night will eventually turn to all snow with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible. Near blizzard conditions will be possible in the winter storm watch area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Personal weather station measured a peak wind gust of 59 mph.
Plattsmouth AWOS measured a peak wind gust of 60 mph.
Trained spotter measured a peak wind gust of 62 mph.
Norfolk ASOS measured a peak wind gust of 61 mph.
ASOS at Eppley Airfield measured a peak wind gust of 58 mph.
Personal weather station measured a peak wind gust of 64 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950395, 950400, 950396, 950399, 950397, 950402.