NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 3:02 AM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 3:02 AM CST, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021
Across the region this morning, wintry conditions area-wide as bands
of light to moderate snow move into the area from the west-
southwest. This is ahead of an upper trough currently moving slowly
east-southeast over the central Rockies. An easterly fetch remains
over the CWA at the surface. Currently looking at temperatures
ranging in the single numbers below zero. Wind chills are ranging
around -15F to -25F as of 100 AM MST.
For the short term period, the weather focus remains on the arctic
airmass, dangerously cold wind chills and snowfall from a passing
shortwave.
The latest Rap40 500mb/water vapor analysis shows to our north,
little movement of a low currently over central Canada. A shortwave
trough is moving slowly east-southeast off the central Rockies, with
a further southerly push going into Sunday. The first surge of
moisture with this system is pushing thru Kansas, but the bulk of it
south of the CWA. The bands that have moved thru are dropping at
least 1-2 inches already between here at WFO GLD and a report in
Goodland. Water vapor is showing some drier air wrapping into the
system which is also evident on regional radar composite.
While this may give a reprieve to some areas over the next couple
hours, the passage of the system into the morning hours will
continue to bring additional accumulation to most areas. Any more of
a southerly push with this system could drag moisture/totals down
but will monitor and for now will be leaving totals in current
winter wx products as is. This is a fine snow so far that has fallen
with about a 20:1 snow/water ratio occurring at this time. Have some
areas seeing some potential patchy blowing snow as a result. Latest
models still look to clear the system from west to east ending by
the afternoon.
The other wx factor for today will be the continuing cold
temperatures and subsequent dangerous wind chill readings. The
ongoing Wind Chill Warning continues to look good at this time, as
the current product does go into Monday morning, with a bit of a
reprieve for the afternoon. By the evening though on into Tuesday
morning, criteria will be close/or even met again for many locales.
As a result, will be extending the ongoing Wind Chill Warning into
Tuesday morning. Conditions do begin to improve going into Tuesday
from west to east as southerly flow kicks in allowing for warmer
temps across the area.
For temps, with the arctic airmass slowly pulling eastward during
the short term period, a "warm up" is expected in area numbers. For
today, daytime highs are only expected to reach in the single
numbers above/below zero at best. Monday will have mainly single
numbers above zero, although a few spots in western portions of
northeast Colorado could reach around 10F. As the surface flow
increases to the south, highs will bump up as well, but a wide
gradient will ensue with teens and 20s west trailing to just the
teens east.
Overnight lows will still be problematic over the area. Tonight the
area will see teens below zero, with a few spots approaching the -
20F mark. Monday night, single numbers to lower teens below zero,
then single numbers above/below zero Tuesday night. With the
addition of the snowpack from today, all of the aforementioned
temperatures may have to be augmented down some if models don't pick
up on the area snowpack.
Please refer to the Climate section below for all potential records
for the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021
Dry weather is currently expected throughout the long term. At the
start of the period, a disturbance entering west Texas passes just
south of the region on Wednesday. By Thursday, northwest flow
redevelops aloft behind the departing system as it pushes towards
New England. Upper ridging along the west coast slowly progresses
through the Rockies and Plains on Friday and Saturday. However, the
ridge appears to flatten in the process, with a series of shortwaves
in the west to northwest flow. At this point, any precipitation with
the disturbances looks to be confined to the mountains.
A warming trend is forecast during this timeframe, with highs
climbing from the upper teens through upper 20s on Wednesday to the
40s region-wide on Saturday. Low temperatures rise from the single
digits above/below zero Wednesday night to the teens above zero
Friday night. Wednesday morning, while warmer than previous
mornings, could still see a few locations have wind chills near -15
degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 939 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2021
GLD will see IFR conditions with low ceilings and visibilities in
light snow with LIFR possible between 14-20Z due to lower
visibilities. Snow will taper off around 20Z with visibility and
ceilings improving to MVFR before conditions return to IFR after
01Z with the ceiling and visibility lowering.
MCK will vary between LIFR and IFR through 10Z with light snow.
Expect IFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period with
light snow tapering off after 21Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 203 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021
Record low max daily temperature:
Goodland.....14th (8F), 15th (1F), 16th (4F)
Hill City....14th (14F), 15th (8F), 16th (8F)
McCook.......14th (7F), 15th (3F), 16th (12F)
Burlington...14th (5F), 15th (14F), 16th (10F)
Colby........14th (12F), 15th (16F), 16th (14F)
Tribune......14th (9F), 15th (10F), 16th (14F)
Yuma.........14th (17F), 15th (14F), 16th (22F)
Record low temperatures:
Goodland.....14th (-12F), 15th (-13F), 16th (-17F)
Hill City....14th (-3F), 15th (-6F), 16th (-7F)
McCook.......14th (-11F), 15th (-11F), 16th (-7F)
Burlington...14th (-8F), 15th (-11F), 16th (-16F)
Colby........14th (-9F), 15th (-13F), 16th (-11F)
Tribune......14th (-7F), 15th (-14F), 16th (-9F)
Yuma.........14th (-19F), 15th (-2F), 16th (-9F)
February record low temperature:
Goodland.....-22F on 2/5/1982
Hill City....-19F on 2/1/1951
McCook.......-26F on 2/8/1933
Burlington...-23F on 2/5/1982
Colby........-31F on 2/12/1899
Tribune......-24F on 2/9/1933
Yuma.........-27F on 2/1/1951
All-time record low temperature:
Goodland.....-27F on 12/22/1989
Hill City....-26F on 12/22/1989
McCook.......-30F on 1/12/1912
Burlington...-25F on 1/4/1959
Colby........-32F on 12/22/1989
Tribune......-25F on 1/18/1984
Yuma.........-33F on 12/22/1989
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
for KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
for KSZ027-041-042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090.
Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ090>092.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ091-
092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
for NEZ079>081.
Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...JN