High Wind in Montana, October 28, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
552 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect cloud cover and seasonably mild temperatures to pass over the
region this evening ahead of a strong cold front tomorrow evening.
Winds will increase again for the North-Central region tonight, with
the strongest along the Rocky Mountain Front. With the Friday
cold front, expect much colder temperatures for this weekend and
the potential for the first lower elevation snowfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front
continue to strengthen into the overnight period, warranting a high
wind warning out to 9 AM Friday. The potential for mountain waves
remains high as well, but there is low confidence whether these
waves will extend eastward into the Cut Bank region. General
consensus is that the temperatures for Friday will be above normal
for much of the area prior to the strong cold front late Friday,
which has the potential to bring snowfall to the North-Central
Plains. Heaviest of the snowfall will occur in the Glacier Park
region, but general model agreement showing less than an inch of
snowfall for much of the Plains further south and east, and much
of it will likely only accumulate in the grass. Primary concern is
the melting of the snowfall and refreezing overnight that can
bring icy conditions to the roadways early Saturday for any
morning commuters. Temperatures this weekend are expected to be in
the in the upper 30s in the North-Central region and mid to upper
40s in the Southwest region, which is still 10 to 15 degrees
below normal.

Sunday through Thursday...There are no significant systems
anticipated for the North-Central or Southwest regions during this
time. Any potential for precipitation is slight at best, with the
greatest to occur late Wednesday into early Thursday. Overall
temperatures will remain on the colder side, still below normal,
but there is a gradual warming trend beginning Tuesday and
remaining throughout the end of the outlook period, bringing us
closer to our seasonal averages by mid-week. - Pierce

&&

.AVIATION...
552 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 (29/00Z TAF period)

Strong westerly flow aloft will continue through at least the first
half of the period, which will bring strong surface winds and
mountain wave turbulence, mostly to areas along and adjacent to the
Rocky Mountain Front. KCTB will likely see the greatest impact from
this, with periods of low level wind shear during times of lighter
surface winds. General VFR conditions are expected under passing
middle and high level cloudiness, with some MVFR CIGS and mountain
obscuration likely along the divide and over portions of the
southwest, including the KWYS area. Towards the end of the period, a
cold front will begin to move north to south and bring a northerly
wind shift and lowering CIGS to the plains terminals. -RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  67  28  39 /   0  20  40  10
CTB  46  57  25  37 /  30  60  70   0
HLN  43  67  33  43 /   0  20  40  10
BZN  36  64  34  46 /   0   0  50  20
WYS  32  48  34  45 /  10  10  30  30
DLN  35  60  35  48 /   0   0  20  10
HVR  46  67  27  43 /  10  30  40   0
LWT  46  65  27  38 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls