Montana, 2021

Drought in Montana, October 1 to 31, 2021

October 1 to 31, 2021 · NWS GGW · 16 events in 16 counties and zones

A winter storm moved through the area on October 12th - 13th. The southeastern zones received a good amount of rain and snowfall to help drought conditions, however the rest of the area only got a little precipitation.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
16

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.

A winter storm moved through the area on October 12th - 13th. The southeastern zones received a good amount of rain and snowfall to help drought conditions, however the rest of the area only got a little precipitation. So despite this welcome storm, the extreme drought continues over northeast Montana.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 6:40 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 6:40 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
740 PM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING UPDATE:
Going forecast is on track, no changes were necessary this
evening. GAH

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
No major updates to the forecast this afternoon. Models and
ensembles continue to show a quiet forecast for the coming week,
with some potentially significant overall changes possible by next
weekend. Stay tuned for that.  Cliff

MORNING DISCUSSION:
Look for warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions across NE
Montana over the next couple of days. Dry fuels in place along
with afternoon relative humidity each day as low as 15 percent may
elevate fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be
light.

Upper ridging is expected to strengthen across the wester U.S. and
extend into the Northern High Plains this weekend and early next
week. This will result in above normal temperatures returning to
the region with highs in the 70s and 80s. Dry weather will also
persist, so any breezy day will likely raise fire weather concerns
given the prolonged dry spell.

Longer term ensembles eventually show the ridge breaking down or
shifting east sometime near the end of the first week in October
as a deep Pacific trough sets up. As this results, look for
markedly cooler and more fall-like temperatures. It is too early
to speculate on whether the pattern shift may also result in any
precipitation chances, but that will be followed closely.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0130Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Quiet weather continues for the forecast period.

WIND: Light and variable tonight through Friday.

Cliff/GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

16 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Sheridan

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Sheridan forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.721, -104.505 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in Sheridan County were at (D3-Extreme) for the whole county. These conditions remained the same through the rest of October.

Drought, Daniels

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Daniels forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.784, -105.549 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in all of Daniels County were at (D3-Extreme). These conditions remained the same through the rest of October.

Drought, Eastern Roosevelt

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Roosevelt forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.295, -105.016 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in Eastern Roosevelt county were at (D3-Extreme) in the northern two thirds of the county as well as the southeastern corner while the southwestern third of the county was at (D4-Exceptional) conditions. These conditions remained the same through the rest of October.

Drought, Richland

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Richland forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.788, -104.561 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions were at (D4-Exceptional) conditions over the western three quarters of Richland County, with (D3-Extreme) conditions along the eastern border with North Dakota. On the third week, the southeastern half of Richland County improved to (D3-Extreme) conditions, with the far southeastern corner of Richland County improving further to (D2-Severe) conditions, while the northwestern half of the county remained in (D4-Exceptional) conditions. At the end of October the southern corner of Richland County improved to (D2-Severe) conditions, while the northwestern third of the county remained in (D4-Exceptional) drought and the central third of the county remained in (D3-Extreme) conditions.

Drought, Dawson

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dawson forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.266, -104.899 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in most of Dawson County were at (D4-Exceptional) conditions, the exception being the far eastern tip of the county which remained in (D3-Extreme) drought. During the third week, the southeastern three quarters of Dawson County has improved to (D3-Extreme) conditions, with a small portion bordering northern Wibaux County improving to (D2-Severe) drought, the northwestern quarter of Dawson County remained in (D4-Exceptional) conditions. At the end of October, the northwest corner of Dawson County remained in (D4-Exceptional) conditions. The north central portion of the county, along with the far southern part bordering southern Wibaux County and eastern Prairie County were in (D3-Extreme) conditions. The rest of the southern half of Dawson County had improved to (D2-Severe) drought.

Drought, Wibaux

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Wibaux forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
46.965, -104.249 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in the whole northern third of Wibaux County were at (D3-Extreme) conditions, while the southern two thirds of the county were in (D4-Exceptional) conditions. During the third week, conditions in the northern third of Wibaux County improved to (D2-Severe) conditions, while the southern two thirds of the county improved to (D3-Extreme) conditions. These conditions remained the same through the end of October.

Drought, Prairie

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Prairie forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
46.861, -105.378 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month of October, ongoing drought conditions in the eastern two thirds of Prairie County were (D4-Exceptional) conditions, with the western third in (D3-Extreme) conditions. By the third week of October, all of Prairie County had improved to (D3-Extreme) conditions. By the end of the month the eastern quarter and along the northern border of Prairie County remained in (D3-Extreme) conditions, but the rest of the county had improved to (D2-Severe) drought conditions.

Drought, Western Roosevelt

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Western Roosevelt forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.295, -105.016 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in the northern two thirds of western Roosevelt County were at (D3-Extreme) conditions while the southwestern third of western Roosevelt County was in (D4-Exceptional) drought. These conditions remained the same the rest of the month.

Drought, McCone

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
McCone forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.645, -105.795 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in all but the southwestern corner of McCone County were at (D4-Exceptional) with the southwestern corner in (D3-Extreme) conditions. At the end of the month, the southern third of McCone County improved to (D3-Extreme) conditions while the northern two thirds of the county remained in (D4-Exceptional) drought.

Drought, Northern Valley

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Northern Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.365, -106.667 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in all of Northern Valley County were at (D3-Extreme) drought conditions. These conditions remained the same for the rest of the month.

Drought, Central and Southern Valley

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central and Southern Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.365, -106.667 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in the northeast corner of Central and Southern Valley County were at (D3-Extreme) conditions, while the remaining area of Central and Southern Valley County remained in (D4-Exceptional) drought. These conditions remained the same through the end of the month.

Drought, Garfield

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Garfield forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.278, -106.993 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions in northern Garfield County around Fort Peck Lake were at (D4-Exceptional) conditions while the southeastern two thirds of Garfield County were in (D3-Extreme) drought. At the end of the month the far southeastern corner of Garfield county had improved to (D2-Severe Drought) while the remainder of the county remained the same as the beginning of the month.

Drought, Northern Phillips

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Northern Phillips forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month of October, ongoing drought conditions were at (D3-Extreme) for all but the extreme northwest corner of Northern Phillips County which remained in (D2-Severe). By the end of the month all of Northern Phillips County had worsened to (D3-Extreme) conditions.

Drought, Central and Se Phillips

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Central and Se Phillips forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions were at (D4-Exceptional) in the eastern and southeastern three quarters of Central and Southeast Phillips County, with the western and northwestern quarter in (D3-Extreme) conditions. These conditions remained the same through the end of October.

Drought, Petroleum

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Petroleum forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.118, -108.250 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions were at (D4-Exceptional) for the northern three quarters of Petroleum County, while the southern quarter of Petroleum County remained in (D3-Extreme) conditions. These conditions remained the same through the end of October.

Drought, Little Rocky Mountains

When
October 1, 12:00 AM MST to October 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Little Rocky Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start October, ongoing drought conditions were at (D3-Extreme) conditions for all of the Little Rocky Mountains. These conditions remained the same through the end of October.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, October 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984935, 984937, 984939, 984940, 984945, 984956, 984974, 984976, 984979, 984982, 984987, 988319, 988321, 988323, 988326, 988327.