The quieter and drier weather conditions that characterized September continued in October 2021 with below normal amounts of precipitation recorded. Drought conditions worsened again across northern and central New Mexico this month with about 50 percent of the state in at least severe drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 31 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
The quieter and drier weather conditions that characterized September continued in October 2021 with below normal amounts of precipitation recorded. Drought conditions worsened again across northern and central New Mexico this month with about 50 percent of the state in at least severe drought conditions. Across the eastern plains of the state where significant progress had been made over the monsoon season, conditions continued to deteriorate with abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions beginning to spread. Despite this, extreme drought conditions did improve slightly to about 11 percent of the state with this improvement being recorded over the southwest where precipitation totals of three quarters to one inch were received and added precipitation from the last day of September likely helped. Elsewhere across northern and central New Mexico, precipitation totals generally ranged from three quarters to one inch throughout the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 10:35 PM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1135 PM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A mixed bag of VFR down to IFR conditions prevail across the area as an upper low makes slow eastward progress into far western NM and a wave of precipitation rotates north around the upper low circulation into northern NM. Further deterioration is likely going into early Friday morning, both in rain and outside of rain with the development of low stratus and fog. Some improvement is forecast Friday, especially across western and central NM. Some thunder will mix-in Friday afternoon and may impact KLVS, KTCC and KROW. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are underway, as an upper-level system approaches the state along with a backdoor cold front. Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over much of northern and central New Mexico tonight through Friday along with a few inches of snow in the northern mountains above 11,000 feet. Temperatures will remain well below normal on Friday, slowly warming up day-by-day and reaching seasonal normals again by early next week. Drier conditions are expected this weekend and into the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... Waves of rain have graced much of New Mexico today ahead of the upper level low over/near the UT/AZ border. The rain and cloud cover have inhibited temperatures from climbing much today and most locations are still several degrees shy of previously forecast high temperatures. Not expecting much clearing, thus it will be hard for instability to develop for the remainder of the evening. With forecast soundings still showing a tropical profile tonight, showers and any embedded thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers. However, the lack of instability, light rainfall totals to this point, and relatively quick storm motions will limit the flash flooding potential. Therefore, have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch. Nonetheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening through Friday morning. Batches of precipitation will continue to expand northeastward (though individual storms will move northwestward), with most of the activity over northeast NM Friday morning. However, as the upper level low shifts over New Mexico, mid level lapse rates will steepen, and additional showers and thunderstorms may develop behind the main slug of precipitation Friday afternoon. All-in-all, still looking for good precipitation totals. Most central and eastern areas will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, though again, it will not come all at once. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal Friday afternoon. Precipitation should quickly wane Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night should generally be cooler than tonight as there will be less cloud cover. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A significantly drier and more seasonable airmass will move into NM on Saturday with PWATs generally ranging between 0.5 and 0.75 inch with higher values in the eastern plains. Despite rising pressure heights in the wake of the departing low, cooler than average temperatures will linger amid the light west northwest flow aloft. While available moisture is underwhelming, meager instability over the northern mountains could yield a brief light shower or perhaps a thunderstorm there Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, cool, dry and mostly tranquil conditions are expected. On Sunday, forecast models indicate pressure falls could occur either north or northwest of NM, but there are discrepancies on the placement, as this feature would be removed from the polar jet, making it difficult to model. The ECMWF deepens it into a trough over CO with sufficient moisture and instability for showers and thunderstorms over northern zones, whereas the GFS keeps the feature well west of the Four Corners as a dry upper low. Into Monday the ECMWF drags the trough into eastern NM while the low projected by the GFS gets absorbed into a swelling upper level ridge. For now, low POPs have been built into the northern zones for Sunday, spreading into most remaining zones on Monday to account for uncertainties with the large model spread. A blended model guidance approach would also suggest that temperatures would creep closer to normal Sunday, reaching seasonal averages by Monday, however a wetter ECMWF solution might require a reduction of a few degrees, especially in eastern zones. The ridge does appear to become the dominant feature over NM on Tuesday, but an eastern Pacific low will move inland and toward the Four Corners Tuesday night into Wednesday when our western (and more specifically the northwestern) zones will once again have a chance for precipitation. Following this, a more longwave trough over the western ConUS could be present by next Thursday, dragging an increased gradient aloft that might boost wind speeds in NM. 34/52 && .FIRE WEATHER... Wet weather remains on tap for the next 24-30 hours across northern and central NM. Widespread wetting rain will continue through Friday afternoon before the storm system responsible for the precipitation pulls away from the state. An upper level ridge will build overhead for the weekend through Tuesday, allowing temperatures to gradually warm and humidity values to fall. Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday, then near normal temperatures expected to start next week. A Pacific storm system will approach the area mid week, perhaps bringing some additional precipitation to western NM. At this time, this looks to be quick hitting, before the ridge builds back in. Windy conditions possible next weekend. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 712 PM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 NMZ201>241-011200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 712 PM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Tonight Widespread moderate rainfall is likely tonight as a slow moving storm system moves east across New Mexico. Total rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75" are expected across central and western New Mexico with higher amounts of 1.25 to 2.00" forecast for eastern portions of the state. Rainfall rates should generally be too light for flash flooding, but ponding of water and flows through arroyos and low water crossings can be expected. Temperatures will be cold enough to support light snow accumulations above 11,000 feet in the northern mountains. Areas of fog with rainfall may reduce visibilities below one half mile at times and lead to hazardous travel conditions, especially tonight through Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue in northern and especially eastern New Mexico on Friday. Brief heavy downpours, small hail, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any storms. Patchy fog is also possible Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings, limiting visibility in some areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit rain and storm reports as well as photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 52
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
31 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 improved slightly in October with severe drought conditions across the area.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
Severe drought conditions from September 2021 continued in October.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984640, 984641, 984642, 984643, 984644, 984645, 984646, 984647, 984648, 984649, 984650, 984651, 984652, 984653, 984654, 984655, 984656, 984657, 984658, 984659, 984660, 984661, 984662, 984663, 984664, 984665, 984666, 984667, 984668, 984669, 984670.