Drought in Montana, July 1 to 31, 2021

Name: Drought in Montana, July 1 to 31, 2021
Start: 2021-07-01T00:00
End: 2021-07-31T23:59
Location: Montana

July 1 to 31, 2021 · NWS GGW · 16 events in 16 counties and zones

The weather pattern through this mid-summer period continued to favor a strong ridge of hot high pressure over the western United States, and directed most storm systems well away from northeast Montana locations. Drought conditions showed very little or no improvement through the month of July.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 16

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 1:43 PM MST, 10 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 1:43 PM MST, 10 hours 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
243 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Major changes to the forecast first start on Friday. Temperatures
and RH are starting to have high confidence. However, there is
only a slight overlap in slam dunk conditions between RH and Wind
Gusts across the western CWA. With winds to the west and low RH to
the east making things a little more marginal on either side.
Splitting the difference we have expanded to both sides to
continue in the same territory as the current Thursday's Red Flag,
and simply expanded the current Red Flag till 9PM tomorrow for
simplicity. We expect to handle the lull overnight in the text.

Looking farther out... dry thunderstorms are coming into focus
from around Sunday night to Tuesday. A persistent surface
trough/dry line will be the focus for small cells. However the
placement of the dryline is shifting with each period and forecast
and is waffling back and forth from western North Dakota to
central Montana and therefore confidence in any one place getting
thunder is low. Each ensemble member has something in terms of QPF
up to about 0.10 inches or a little less in their individual cell
bullseyes, just in different places at various times. GAH

MORNING DISCUSSION:
Will issue an Excessive Heat Warning for Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday with the upcoming forecast. Upper level high and ridge
will move east across Montana and the Canadian Prairies today and
will drift to the east on Thursday. The system will bring extreme
heat over the area with highs well into the 90s today, near 100 on
Thursday and 100 to 105 in most areas Friday and Saturday. At
this point, either Friday or saturday will be the hottest day.
Heat impact levels will reach warning criteria in most areas
starting on Thursday and continue on Friday and Saturday. With
very high confidence now in 100+ highs in many areas, will issue
an Excessive Heat Warning for all of NE Montana for Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday.

In addition to the heat, min RH will be very low in the teens and
20s each day. Today, surface high will close nearby in the
Dakotas to keep the east to SE winds 5 to 15 mph. On Thursday, the
high drifts east and a tighter surface gradient develops over
eastern Montana between the high to the east and a surface trough
near the Continental Divide. This will increase the SE winds to 20
to 30 mph which will create critical fire weather conditions with
very low RH. Will issue a Red Flag Warning for Thursday in most
areas. Will keep the NE out of the warning for now where RH will
be higher. The stronger SE winds will continue on Friday
especially in the NE half of the forecast area. A Lake Wind
Advisory is likely for Fort Peck Lake on Thursday and possible on
Friday.

The models move this upper high/ridge to Manitoba and the Dakotas
on Friday and bring a SW flow aloft to the forecast area with a
shortwave trough that could produce an evening thunderstorm in
the west. With very dry atmosphere in the low levels, will need to
watch for the possibility of dry thunderstorms.

Flow aloft turns zonal on Saturday and models bring a cold front
in the afternoon or evening with a chance of thunderstorms mainly
Saturday Night.

Sunday will be not as hot with highs in the 90s in most areas and
upper 80s north.

A mainly zonal flow aloft is expected early next week with
frequent waves that could bring chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Sunny/Clear skies with a few mid and high clouds at
times and staying dry through most of the week with upper level
ridge.

WIND: East at 5 to 15 kts this afternoon through tonight. Backing
to the southeast and increasing to 10 to 20 kts Thursday afternoon.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MDT Saturday
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Daniels...Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...
McCone...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...
Prairie...Richland...Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western
Roosevelt...Wibaux.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MDT Friday for
MTZ122-134>137.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

16 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Sheridan

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Sheridan forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.721, -104.505 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) in Sheridan County improved slightly to D2-Severe in the second week of July for most of the county, with the exception of the extreme southwest portion of Sheridan County which remained in D3-Extreme drought. These conditions then continued through the remainder of the month of July.

Drought, Daniels

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Daniels forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.784, -105.549 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month of July, ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) were across the eastern two thirds and the far northwest corner of Daniels County, and the western third of the county was in D2-Severe drought. In the second week, for the eastern portions, D3-Extreme drought retreated to south-central and southeastern portions of the county. These conditions then continued through the rest of the month.

Drought, Eastern Roosevelt

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Eastern Roosevelt forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.295, -105.016 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month of July, ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) were in place across all of Eastern Roosevelt County. In the second week, the far eastern portion near the state line improved to D2-Severe. In the third week, the far southeastern portion returned to D3-Extreme drought. These conditions then continued through the end of the month.

Drought, Richland

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Richland forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 47.788, -104.561 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D2-Severe) were in the western half and the far southeastern corner of Richland County, with D3-Extreme drought elsewhere. These conditions lasted through all of July.

Drought, Dawson

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Dawson forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 47.266, -104.899 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start out July, (D2-Severe) drought was located over the northwest third of the county and (D3-Extreme) drought was located in the southeastern two thirds of the county. These conditions remained this way through the entire month of July with no changes.

Drought, Wibaux

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Wibaux forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 46.965, -104.249 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

All but the extreme northeast corner of Wibaux County was in (D3-Extreme) drought conditions with the extreme northeast corner being in (D2-Severe) drought. These conditions remained unchanged throughout the whole month of July.

Drought, Prairie

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Prairie forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 46.861, -105.378 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) continued for the eastern three quarters of Prairie County with (D2-Severe) in the western quarter of the county. These conditions remained unchanged throughout the month of July.

Drought, Western Roosevelt

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Western Roosevelt forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.295, -105.016 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) continued for the eastern two thirds of Western Roosevelt county and (D2-Severe) for the western third of Western Roosevelt County. These conditions remained unchanged throughout the month of July.

Drought, McCone

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: McCone forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 47.645, -105.795 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions for McCone County were (D2-Severe) for the majority of the county, the exception being the far northwestern and far southeastern corners where (D3-Extreme) was occurring. These conditions remained unchanged throughout the month of July.

Drought, Northern Valley

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Northern Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.365, -106.667 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) occurred across most of Northern Valley County at the beginning of July, the exception being (D2-Severe) in the far southeast corner of Northern Valley County. These conditions remained unchanged throughout the month of July.

Drought, Central and Southern Valley

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Central and Southern Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.365, -106.667 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month of July, ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) were across most of Central and Southern Valley County with (D2-Severe) in the far eastern portion. By the third week, the western third of Central and Southern Valley County had worsened to (D4-Exceptional Drought) with the middle third remaining in (D3-Extreme) conditions and the eastern third remaining in (D2-Severe) conditions through the end of the month.

Drought, Garfield

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Garfield forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 47.278, -106.993 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions to start July were in (D3-Extreme) across all but the southeastern corner of Garfield County which was in (D2-Severe). On the third week of July conditions across the northwestern corner worsened to (D4-Exceptional) with (D3-Extreme) remaining across most of central and southwestern Garfield County and (D2-Severe) remaining in the southeastern corner through the end of the month.

Drought, Northern Phillips

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Northern Phillips forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions started July as (D2-Severe) in the western third of Northern Phillips County, and (D3-Extreme) drought in the eastern two thirds of Northern Phillips County. During the second week of July these conditions worsened to (D3-Extreme) for all but the extreme northwest corner of Northern Phillips county which remained in (D2-Severe). Conditions remained this way through the end of July.

Drought, Central and Se Phillips

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Central and Se Phillips forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D3-Extreme) were in the eastern and southern sections of Central and Southeast Phillips County with D2-Severe over western and northwestern sections. During the second week of July (D3-Extreme) conditions pushed west with only the far southwestern tip of Central and Southeast Phillips County remaining in (D2-Severe) conditions. During the third week of July eastern sections of Central and Southeast Phillips County worsened into (D4-Exceptional) conditions. On the last week the far southwestern tip of Central and Southeast Phillips County worsened into (D3-Extreme) conditions.

Drought, Petroleum

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Petroleum forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 47.118, -108.250 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions started July with (D3-Extreme) drought across all of Petroleum County. By week three, the central part of Petroleum County had worsened to (D4-Exceptional) drought with the northern and southern parts of Petroleum County remaining in (D3-Extreme) conditions through the rest of July.

Drought, Little Rocky Mountains

When: July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Little Rocky Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ongoing drought conditions (D2-Severe) were in the Little Rockies to start the month. During week two, a sliver of (D3-Extreme) moved into northern and west central Little Rockies with (D2-Severe) remaining elsewhere. On the last week of July most of the Little Rockies worsened into (D3-Extreme) conditions, the exception being the far western corner which remained in (D2-Severe) conditions.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, July 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 973415, 973416, 973417, 973418, 973648, 973649, 973650, 973651, 973653, 973654, 973656, 973658, 973661, 973664, 973667, 973886.