Two rounds of severe thunderstorms produced two tornadoes, hail, and widespread wind damage (some significant) across the DC metro and central Maryland, with spottier wind damage extending into the Baltimore area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Two rounds of severe thunderstorms produced two tornadoes, hail, and widespread wind damage (some significant) across the DC metro and central Maryland, with spottier wind damage extending into the Baltimore area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 9:26 AM EST, 2 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will impact our area through early Friday bringing
strong showers and thunderstorms. An upper level trough will
shift out of the region Friday into Saturday. High pressure
builds into the region Sunday through early next week. A weak
front may impact the region by Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current satellite and upper air obs show the upper trough over
the Great Lakes gradually making its way southeastward towards
our region this morning. A surface cold front is draped across
western NY and into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of these features
ample moisture is being advected into the region (as evident by
PWATS around 1.9 inches in the 12z IAD RAOB). Certainly not
extreme for early July, but definitely on the higher end. Shear
is gradually increasing from NW to SE, and will continue to do
so through the afternoon as the cold front slowly approaches.
Clouds and showers are currently located over our northern and
western forecast zones, and this is activity out ahead of what
is expected to be the main show later this afternoon. Very few
clouds being observed over much of northern and central VA and
central/southern MD. This has allowed for MLCAPE values to
already rise in excess of 1000 J/kg. Forecast values in excess
of 2000, and perhaps 2500 J/kg, are expected by early afternoon
as we quickly heat up into the mid 80s (closer to the I-95
corridor) to low 90s (Fredericksburg area into southern MD).
The main thunderstorm threat will increase later this morning
and into this afternoon as diurnal heating increases ahead of
the frontal passage. The main threat areas for strong
thunderstorms to develop will likely be east of the Blue Ridge
Mtns and mainly near and south of the DC metro where the best
shear and CAPE will be located. SPC has expanded their D1 slight
even further now north and west to include areas further north
and west of I-95. Thinking that storms develop along the I-81
corridor by noon or so (ahead of the cold front), then move
eastward through mid- afternoon, likely reaching the bay
sometime between 4-6 PM. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds will
be the primary threat with these storms. Given the warmth of the
airmass, will be tough to get large hail. Also, low-level shear
doesn't seem quite as favorable as once though a few days ago,
so the tornado threat seems to be rather low at this time.
Although, there are a few pieces of model guidance that develop
a surface low directly overhead, which could make things a bit
more interesting, so can't completely rule one out today over
southern MD. This will be round one during the
afternoon/evening, with potentially another round to come later
on.
Beyond the severe/flood threat this afternoon is another threat
for some heavy showers and storms later tonight. The
aforementioned cold front will still be making its way through
the region, so some convection is expected to continue along
that into the evening and overnight. Where this occurs will be
key in determining the magnitude of the flash flooding threat.
In fact, some of the hi-res guidance wants to shift this
activity further south, and actually out of the area by around
midnight-2 AM or so. The recent runs of the GFS/Euro though
still paint a somewhat ominous picture of 1-2 inches over the
I-95 corridor roughly from DC to Baltimore (and that doesn't
necessarily account for heavier rates within stronger convective
elements). So, will be monitoring this closely this evening to
see if that threat develops. If the front stalls further south
though away from the metros and into rural southern MD, may not
be as big of an issue, especially if it is somewhat
progressive. Flash flood guidance in southern MD exceeds 4
inches in many spots for the 3 hour value, and even 3 inches in
an one hour. But, given the uncertainty in how quickly it moves
out, can't rule out at least some isolated flooding or flash
flooding anywhere east of the Blue Ridge really, so will not
make any changes to the Flash Flood Watch at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The front will shift further southeastward away from out region on
Friday. The upper trough to our north is expected to drop down into
our region on Friday. This trough axis may kick of further showers
on Friday but the coverage of precipitation will likely be limited
due to a general northwesterly flow. I can't rule out all of our
region seeing some light showers on Friday but the best area to
experience any shower/thunderstorms will be areas in southern MD
that are closes to the frontal boundary. Daytime temperatures
overall will be much cooler on Friday with afternoon highs only
rising up into the upper 70s to lower 80s. A brief lull in
precipitation will likely occur late Friday and into Saturday
morning due to subsidence on the eastern side of the trough.
The axis of the trough will drop overhead on Saturday. As the trough
slowly shifts off-shore, some wrap around precipitation will be
possible due to shortwave energy. The coverage and amounts of
precipitation should be limited and focused toward northeastern
parts of our forecast area. Drier air should overtake our region
later in the day on Saturday as the trough shifts out over the
ocean. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday will remain mild in the
70s with overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
To finish out the weekend, the morning of Independence Day will
feature a strong positively-tilted upper trough offshore of New
England. This is the system which will have worked its way through
the Mid-Atlantic a couple of days earlier. North to north-
northwesterly flow aloft should prevail as this upper low continues
its progression toward Nova Scotia. Overall surface gradients should
quickly diminish leading to light and variable wind fields. While
much of the day will be dry, diurnal heating combining with the
cooler air aloft may foster the development of scattered afternoon
showers. Any spotty activity that does develop would quickly erode
by nightfall. Highs are to top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
accompanied by seasonably lower dew points.
Heading into Monday and subsequent days, the longwave pattern is
forecast to be dominated by northern stream flow. A progressive
upper ridge tracks through while eventually being replaced by a
broad trough into the middle of the week. Forecast guidance depict a
strong band of height falls with this trough. However, these should
stay up in New England with the core of the upper low over central
Quebec. This system eventually draws another cold front toward the
region by late Wednesday. Given height falls are neutral with this
trough passage, this front may get hung up in the vicinity of the
area toward the latter portion of the week. With return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico taking shape early next week, heat and humidity
will make their return. Upper 80s to low 90s are likely each day,
locally cooler in the mountains, with slightly higher heat indices
with increased humidity levels. Any shower and thunderstorm chances
should hold off until mid-week as the front approaches from the
northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will overspread all terminals by this
afternoon. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible that
will lead to periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities.
TAFs updated in this forecast to further narrow down TSRA at
all terminals this afternoon. Believe the threat materializes
between 16-18z around MRB, then drifts east, reaching IAD by
17-19z, then to the main metro areas by 18-22z or so, with DCA
being on the early end of that range, and BWI/MTN potentially
having storms linger a little longer. CHO is a little trickier
and may miss out on the main line, but do expect some
thunderstorms to develop by 19-20z or so. A wind shift out the
west to northwest is expected behind the front tonight, with
light southerly flow ahead of the front this afternoon/evening.
VFR conditions should return on Friday but some showers can't
be ruled out for the BWI/MTN terminals. VFR conditions should
return for all terminals Friday afternoon and continue through
Saturday.
VFR conditions are expected to finish out the holiday weekend. Given
a few pop-up showers on Independence Day, a brief reduction in
visibility cannot be ruled out in a locally heavier shower. Winds at
terminal sites should be rather light and variable through
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories conditions will be possible this afternoon
but may be limited in scope. Strong thunderstorms will likely impact
our waters later this morning and into this evening. A cold front
will drop south of our waters on Friday and SCA issues aren't
expected at this time Friday into Saturday.
Marine winds stay below small craft levels through Monday. Initial
northwesterly flow will give way to more variable winds by the
evening of Independence Day.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
morning for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
morning for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
morning for VAZ037>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...None.
MARINE...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
morning for ANZ535.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...CJL/BRO/JMG
MARINE...BJL/BRO/JMGHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-021700- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM this evening for the entire outlook area. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms this afternoon and evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 AM Friday for the entire outlook area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The heavy rain and flooding threat may linger into Friday for southern Maryland. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-021700- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM this evening for all areas east of the Blue Ridge. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms this afternoon and evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 AM Friday for most areas east of the Blue Ridge. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-021700- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight An isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds is possible. Heavy rain may also lead to scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters activation may be needed today. CJL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW LOVETTSVILLE 39.26N 77.67W
06/30/2021 LOUDOUN VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SIX TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SNOWBIRD COURT
AND AXLINE ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2104531
CPBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0641 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW LOVETTSVILLE 39.27N 77.65W
06/30/2021 LOUDOUN VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO LARGE OUTBUILDING ON FRY FARM
ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2104532
CPBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 PM TSTM WND DMG LOVETTSVILLE 39.27N 77.64W
06/30/2021 LOUDOUN VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
METAL ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF BUILDING AT INTERSECTION
OF OKTOBERFEST WAY AND SOUTH CHURCH STREET.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2104533
CPBThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 19 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:22 UTC.
26 thunderstorm wind, 1 funnel cloud, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree damage was reported near Great Falls, including a tree that blew down near the intersection of Watts Road and Chesapeake Drive.
Wires were reported down near the intersection of VA-628 Smith Station Road and Blackstone Boulevard.
Several trees and large branches were blown down in and around Ashburn. A tree was reported down on VA-625 Waxpool Road near VA-267 Dulles Greenway. A six inch diameter tree blew down near the intersection of VA-901 Claiborne Parkway and Val Aosta Drive/Early Light Place, with several other large branches down in the area. A tree blew down at a residence near Farmwell Hunt Plaza. Large branches and small trees blew down in Ashburn Village. A large tree was uprooted on Cheltenham Circle near Alder Lake.
Two trees blew down across VA-670 Old Auburn Road near VA-692 Kines Road.
There were several calls for trees blown down in and around Reston.
Large tree limbs were downed in southeastern King George County. A tree limb blew down across VA-627 Wilmont Road north of Rangerwood Boulevard.
Several trees were blown down in and around Clifton. Trees blew down near the intersection of Newman Road and VA-612 Colchester Road.
Trees blew down near the intersection of Coach Road and Post Road.
Large tree limbs were blown down on Spring Oak Court. A tree blew down on VA-643 Burke Center Parkway near VA-286 Fairfax County Parkway.
Trees blew down near the intersection of VA-645 Burke Lake Road and VA-620 Braddock Road.
There were over a dozen calls for trees and wires down in and around Annandale.
There were a few dozen calls for trees and wires down near and just west of Springfield.
There were about a half a dozen calls for wires down in Arlington.
A wind gust of 50 knots (58 MPH) was measured by the ASOS at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA).
Several trees and large branches were blown down in Alexandria. A large tree blew down onto a fence on East Raymond Avenue near US-1 Richmond Highway.
Trees blew down near the intersection of VA-654 Popes Head Road and Lewisham Road.
A large tree blew down on VA-243 Nutley Street Southwest between Courthouse Road Southwest and Tapawingo Road Southwest in Vienna.
Numerous trees and large branches were blown down in Idylwood near the West Falls Church Metro station. The top of a tree snapped near the intersection of VA-7 Leesburg Pike and VA-695 Idylwood Road. Half a dozen trees were toppled or snapped halfway up blocking the ramps at the I-66 Custis Memorial Parkway/VA-7 Leesburg Pike interchange. Three trees and several large branches blew down along I-66 Custis Memorial Parkway near VA-267 Dulles Connector Road. A large tree snapped in half in the 2200 block of Beacon Lane.
A funnel cloud was spotted southeast of McLean.
Nearly a dozen trees and large branches were blown down in Falls Church, primarily north of VA-7 Broad Street. A 4-foot diameter oak tree was uprooted in a yard near the intersection of North Four Mile Run Drive and 26th Street North adjacent to the Washington and Old Dominion Trail. A tree blew down onto wires and a car near the intersection of North Roosevelt Street and North Tuckahoe Street, briefly trapping the occupant who was uninjured.
A couple dozen trees and large limbs were blown down near the East Falls Church and Williamsburg section of Arlington. The top of a maple tree and several large branches of other trees snapped near the intersection of North Powhatan Street and 26th Street North. A one foot diameter oak tree blew down knocking over two smaller trees, part of a fence, and landing on benches behind The Crescent on North Westmoreland Street (near the intersection of 19th Road North and North Vanderpool Street). Large branches and a temporary batting cage were blown over at Bishop O'Connell High School, with a few other trees and several large limbs blown down in surrounding neighborhoods. A tree blew down on North McKinley Road near 9th Road North.
A couple dozen trees and large limbs were blown down near the Westover and Leeway section of Arlington. A couple of trees and numerous large branches were blown down near the intersection of 18th Street North and North Lexington Street, with several other large trees blown down in the neighborhood. The roof of a commercial building was partially peeled off at the intersection of US-29 Lee Highway and North Lexington Street, with several other large trees down near, some which fell on wires. A tree blew down on George Mason Drive near 22nd Street North.
A few dozen trees and large limbs were blown down in the Glebewood and Waycroft-Woodlawn section of Arlington. A tree blew down on North Buchanan Street near 20th Street North. A large tree and multiple large tree limbs blew into a house in the 4300 block of 16th Road North, injuring and briefly trapping a resident. Trees blew down on North Upton Street and 22nd Road North. A tree blew down on North Illinois Street near 22nd Street North. Several other large trees blew down, tearing down power lines, poles and transformers on North Columbus Street. A few homes had minor siding damage.
A wind gust of 54 knots (62 MPH) was measured by a personal weather station in Ballston. A few trees and several large tree limbs were blown down in the area.
A few trees and several large limbs were blown down in the Virginia Square and Lyon Park section of Arlington. A tree blew down on North Kirkwood Road near 13th Street North. A few trees and large branches blew down around Washington-Liberty High School.
A tornado touched down at 8:59 PM EDT in the Waverly Hills community of Arlington. Numerous trees were snapped in multiple directions in this community, notably in and around Woodstock Park and in the backyards of residences in the 4500 block of 20th Place North in Arlington. One tree in Woodstock Park had its bark removed as a result of the wind. As the tornado crossed into the Cherrydale neighborhood of Arlington, several trees were uprooted and numerous large branches were snapped, some blocking roads and downing power lines. Some homes had siding and shingles removed, and a few windows were broken from falling trees. Several homes also had porch railing and gutter damage with doors blown open.
The tornado continued east over the Lyon Village neighborhood, downing several trees and numerous branches across the north end of the community, including around the community center. The tornado weakened slightly as it moved into the Courthouse community, passing just north of Key Elementary School, continuing to snap large branches and down power lines. Damage became hard to identify as the circulation crossed the highly urbanized area of Rosslyn, but emerged again after the tornado crossed the Potomac River and entered the District of Columbia at 9:03 PM EDT.
Several trees and large branches blew down in the Westmont, Arlington Village, and Penrose section of Arlington. A tree blew down on VA-244 Columbia Pike near South Adams Street, causing a vehicle accident that injured two people. A tree blew down on Washington Boulevard near US-50 Arlington Boulevard.
A tree blew down in the 1500 block of South Clark Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Virginia, 2021Warnings in Virginia, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958204, 958205, 958206, 958207, 958208, 958209, 958210, 958211, 958212, 958213, 958214, 958215, 958216, 958217, 958218, 958219, 958220, 958221, 958222, 958223, 958224, 958225, 958226, 958227, 958228, 958229, 958230, 958231.