An abandoned campfire started a wildfire 14 miles southeast of Moab.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
An abandoned campfire started a wildfire 14 miles southeast of Moab.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 10:27 PM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1127 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 |Plenty of moisture remains in place across eastern Utah and western Colorado, with dewpoints across the board in the 40s to low 50s. The 12z Grand Junction sounding showed a PWAT value of 0.92 inches, which is well above the climatological average PWAT of 0.60 inches. There is already plenty of ongoing shower and storm activity too, but for the moment it is remaining tied to the higher terrain. So far, there has been little shower activity over the Grizzly Creek burn scar, but will continue to monitor as storm coverage is expected to continue increasing over the rest of the afternoon. The best forcing for ascent, though, is over the eastern San Juans and central Divide mountains thanks to an upper level jet. Energy rotating around an upper level low pressure located in northern Utah is helping convection fire across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. Another spoke of energy looks to rotate through late this afternoon and into the evening, meaning that convection could linger later into the overnight hours, compared to yesterday. Convection will finally die down late this evening. Tomorrow is looking quite similar to today, although the upper level low will start to weaken and slowly lift north as a ridge of high pressure begins to expand into the Desert Southwest. As the low lifts north, the best forcing follows, with northeast Utah looking to see better storm coverage in the afternoon. Otherwise, with well above average PWATs still forecast for tomorrow, orographically triggered storms will be the main story. Convection will begin along the ridges in the late morning or early afternoon, and then drift eastward over the valleys through the late afternoon hours. This convection will come to an end around sunset, and skies will clear out a bit overnight. With the high pressure building in, temperatures will gradually climb over the next few days, settling close to average for this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 On Friday, the ridge aloft begins to migrate westward from the Southern Plains to the Desert Southwest. This will keep westerly flow across our area, which is slightly drier than the air mass currently in place. This moisture will be sufficient to support afternoon convection, but with no obvious forcing at this point. Into this weekend the high will become centered over UT/AZ. We will have to watch for convectively induced waves that rotate around the high that perhaps enhance lift across our area. Otherwise the big changes from this ridge will be the rise in temperatures with highs reaching 5-10 degrees above normal. Despite little change in the moisture this heat will increase dew point depressions and lead to more sub-cloud evaporation. This makes it difficult to determine the potential for heavy rainfall and dry thunderstorms. By the middle of next week there are signs that troughing over the Pacific Northwest will suppress the ridge over our region, but not by much. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Isolated convection should linger into the early morning hours with no impacts to TAF sites expected. Showers and storms will reform again by Thursday afternoon with the coverage still widely scattered...impacts not anticipated at TAF sites so VCTS is in the forecast. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 451 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011100- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 451 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorm development will be possible again over a large part of eastern Utah and Western Colorado today. A low probability threat of flash flooding on recent burn scars remains in place today due to slow moving storms. Lightning and gusty outflow winds near storms will also be threats to monitor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorm development will be possible through the remainder of the week though a slow downturn in coverage is forecast each day. Expect isolated gusty winds and heavy downpours with the strongest cells. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Pack Creek Fire began in early June due to a campfire that was abandoned 14 miles southeast of Moab and grew to 8,952 acres before it was contained in early July.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958534.