Hail in Minnesota, July 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Current radar imagery highlights an area of thunderstorms across
northeast and east-central Minnesota. These storms are developing
along a weak boundary that will push southeast over the remainder of
the afternoon hours. A few stronger storms that develop could
produce damaging winds and larger hail. A quick mesoanalysis has an
area of 2000+J/Kg of MLCAPE with steep low level lapse rates yet
lacking any bulk wind shear. This points toward a few isolated
storms that could produce severe wind or hail this evening. Storms
quickly dissipate over western Wisconsin tonight and then our
attention turns to western Minnesota for convection
approaching out of the Dakotas.

Wednesday will be a rather active weather day with severe weather
and excessive rainfall possible across our forecast area. A strong
low level jet ahead of a depending surface low will advect ample
moisture into the area. The 12z guidance has come into better
agreement for Wednesday morning with an approaching convective
complex moving into western MN. Guidance is further south than the
previous runs and highlights the area along the MN/IA border into
Wisconsin with the greatest severe risk. This matches up with the
Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook. They
shifted day 2 enhanced risk slightly south keeping it out of the
Twin Cities Metro. The complex will have the potential for
widespread damaging winds but a few stronger updrafts could produce
larger hail as well. While lapse rates are not particularly
impressive, the trend of a strong LLJ signals the potential for
damaging wind despite the timing of the complex. Finally, a few
tornadoes are possible with 25+kts of low level shear present in
various CAM forecast soundings. This complex should thoroughly work
over the environment but it could recover enough for another round of
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon along southern MN/along I-90. This
will need to be monitored for potential severe after the initial
complex moves through in the AM.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Thursday will start out with lingering SHRA/TSTM across south
central Mn and into west-central Wi. The mid-level trough is still
overhead which leads to the continued low chances in our southeast
CWA.

The mean upper air pattern will slowly begin to change from a west-
northwest flow aloft, to more of a northerly flow as a large trough
develops over the eastern half of the CONUS. Over the Rockies, and
extending into southern Canada, an anomalous ridge will continue to
build. There are differences in the mean ridge and associated weak
disturbance embedded in the upper ridge building across the Northern
Plains from the GFS/EC. These differences are more apparent across
the Dakotas which may lead to small chances of SHRA/TSTM this
weekend. Either way, higher thickness values and associated thermal
profile in the boundary layer suggest that the highest temperatures
will occur north and west of MPX CWA. The latest GEFS and ECMWF MOS
ensembles also support the worst conditions based on heat and
humidity across the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, and southern
Canada.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with diurnal
cumulus fields through sunset. Confidence has decreased regarding
potential thunderstorm development along a weak cold front late this
afternoon and evening across south central Minnesota, through the
Twin Cities and into northwest Wisconsin. While isolated cells are
possible, confidence is low to include a mention in the TAFs.

A thunderstorm complex is expected to move out of South Dakota early
Wednesday morning and move across most of the southern half of
Minnesota and into western Wisconsin through the morning on Wednesday
and into Wednesday afternoon. MVFR with embedded IFR conditions are
possible. Some storms could be strong to severe.

KMSP...a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern
MN. The main concern is after 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...SHRA/TSRA likely, MVFR-IFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Thu...Chance SHRA/MVFR. Wind N-NE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind E-SE around 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
142015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
303 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
eastern Minnesota this afternoon and spread into western
Wisconsin in the early evening. A severe storm or two is possible
with large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across much of
thearea with all threats possible, but the most likely threat and
area are high winds across southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall and some flash flooding are also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
441 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

MNZ065-132215-
Renville-
441 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY...

At 441 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Franklin, or 13
miles east of Redwood Falls, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairfax and Franklin.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4446 9479 4447 9481 4449 9482 4449 9486
      4452 9488 4453 9495 4454 9497 4466 9493
      4462 9463 4445 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 286DEG 23KT 4459 9485

JLT