NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 9:37 AM EST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 9:37 AM EST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1037 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of low pressure that has moved through the region
last night, expect mainly dry but windy weather today. Cooler
weather tonight along with gusty winds and scattered rain/snow
showers. Dry and seasonable weather returns Saturday along with
less wind. Milder temperatures return by Sunday and may linger
into Monday. Then potentially turning unsettled with the risk of
showers Monday night into mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1035 am update...
No substantial changes with the morning update, primarily folded
in the latest observations. Quick look at latest observations
are showing that boundary layer mixing is starting to tap into
the stronger winds aloft, with several locations touching 40 mph
in the last hour. Per latest hi-res guidance, it still looks
like this afternoon into early evening will see the highest
potential of strong wind gusts of 50 mph or so. Though with
temperatures aloft cooling and setting up some "self
destructive" sunshine giving us shallow cu/strato-cu, it's
possible the cloud cover will hold back surface temperatures
just a bit that keeps the boundary layer mixing just a little
less than what guidance suggests. Really nuanced sort of stuff
as the bottom line is it will be windy today.
7 AM UPDATE...
Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor changes to
bring near-term forecast in line with current obs. 988mb surface
low is currently over Gulf of Maine and will continue to deepen
as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Last batch of showers
is clipping Nantucket and the Outer Cape and will move offshore
shortly. As winds turn northwesterly, radar reflectivity shows
lake-effect showers developing downwind of Lake Erie and
Ontario. Visible satellite is showing pockets of partial
clearing across the region. But the cold air is still well to
our west. In fact, the -32C H5 cold pool is currently located
over Lake Superior but will move east. As it does so, mid to low
level lapse rates will steepen and bring down the much strong
gusts. You can read the rest of the discussion below.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Highlights...
* Mild and dry today but becoming windy with west winds 40-50 mph
Short wave trough and attending surface wave exit the area before
12z, followed by post frontal airmass overspreading the region.
Thus, any leftover showers at sunrise quickly move offshore and
gives way to developing sunshine. Although cooling temps aloft (-22C
at H5) combined with cyclonic flow will result in SCT-BKN post
frontal CU/SCU. Best chance for any diurnal showers today is likely
in Western MA, where upslope flow over the Berkshires likely yields
some showers there.
Core of the cold air is delayed until Fri night, so
looking at mild day given a warm start to the day and 850 mb temps
around +4C at 18z, combined with downsloping NW winds in a well
mixed boundary layer, should supports highs of 65-70. Although it
will feel a bit cooler given increasing winds during the day. This
is in response to the surface wave exiting Cape Ann early this
morning, deepens to a sub 980 mb low over Nova Scotia. This tight
pressure gradient coupled with strong late April sunshine and CAA,
will yield a well mixed boundary layer supporting gusts 40-50 mph.
Hence, wind advisory remains posted.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
2 AM update...
Highlights...
* Westerly wind gusts of 40-50 mph continue this evening
* Period of showers tonight with snow showers Worcester Hills, NE CT
into RI
Potent trailing short wave moves across the region tonight with
-30C air at 500 mb! Sufficient deep layer moisture and lift for this
instability to be realized in the form of widespread showers
overnight. As cold air aloft overspreads the region, rain showers
may mix with or change to snow showers across CT/Western-Central MA
into RI, as cold air arrives from the west. Not expecting any
accumulations, just an interesting way to close out the last day of
April.
Temps should generally be above freezing, so not expecting any real
accumulations. But perhaps a coating to 1 inch of snow may occur in
the highest terrain...mainly at or above 1500 feet. Ptype in the
lower elevations should mainly be rain showers, but low risk that a
few wet snow flakes mix in for a short time.
Precipitation should come to an end toward daybreak as the the
shortwave departs. Strongest winds will likely be Friday evening
given this is the time when cold air advection will peak, yielding
steepest low level lapse rates. Gusts up to 40-50 mph are likely and
thus the wind advisory remains in effect thru Fri evening. Low temps
will be in the 30s to near 40.
Saturday...
Turning the calendar to May 1st, it will be a cool and blustery
start to the day, but rising heights and warming temps aloft
supports a pleasant afternoon. Expecting sunshine, diminishing wind
and seasonably mild temperatures, a very pleasant afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Warming trend begins late Saturday and continues into early next
week.
* Turning cooler mid to late week with potential for unsettled
weather but forecast confidence is low this far out.
Saturday night into Sunday...
H5 ridging is disrupted by a potent 510 Dm closed low that dives
southwards from Hudson Bay towards Quebec and then New Brunswick.
This pushes a cold front towards our region (although it doesn't
quite clear our area till later in the day), bringing the chance for
a few showers around though most of the day should be dry given mean
ridging. Another thing of note is that gusty winds are likely to
return early Sunday as 925 mb winds peak between 45 and 55 kts,
especially over the south coast and Islands. Given good mixing, 30
to 35 mph gusts are possible at times. There remains some
uncertainty with how warm Sunday can get, given the spread in 850mb
temperature guidance, which ranges from between +5C and +7C in
GFS/NAM/GEM to between +9C and +11C in the EC. Given a strong
westerly flow and at least partial sunshine, good confidence in
highs reaching low to mid 70s on Sunday except for 60s Cape and the
Islands.
Sunday night into Monday...
By Sunday night, the aforementioned cold front finally clears our
area but looks to lift north again as a warm front on Monday as an
upper-level shortwave and surface low tracks from the Missouri
Valley to the Upper Great Lakes. The atmosphere looks to be starved
of both instability and moisture, so much of Monday should again
feature mainly dry conditions although with plenty of cloud cover,
which would keep temperatures in check in the 60s and 70s.
Monday night into Thursday...
From Monday night onwards, the overall weather pattern gets
increasingly unsettled. We get into a zonal flow with embedded
shortwaves giving us chance of rain daily. A stronger cold front
finally clears our area in the Wednesday into Thursday time frame so
Thursday looks like the driest day in the long term forecast.
Ridging looks to break down late week as a series of shortwave
begins the transition to a deeper trough. This development means
that we are less likely to see any prolonged warmth till the middle
of May. This is consistent with a negative NAO regime and CPC's 6-10
day outlook of below normal temperatures. We do have an active
weather pattern, however, that could allow us to chip away at the
rainfall deficit this spring.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z update...
Today...high confidence on trends, some uncertainty on exact
timing of improving conditions.
Low pressure currently over Northeast CT will continue moving
east and will be offshore by 12z. Conditions improve rapidly
with the wind shift to the WNW. Dry weather after sunrise but
increasing WNW winds with gusts up to 35-45 kt at times.
Tonight...high confidence.
Strong NW winds continue with gusts up to 35-45kt at times. MVFR
in rain showers, snow showers across CT into Western-Central MA
and RI, especially the hilly terrain.
Saturday...high confidence.
VFR and dry weather with gusty NW winds in the morning, then
diminishing in the afternoon and becoming west.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF trends, with improving
conditions around 12z and thereafter, as winds shift to the WNW
but become strong as the day progresses, with gusts up to 40 kt
or so at times into this evening.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF trends, with improving
conditions around 08z and thereafter, as winds shift to WNW.
Winds become strong as the day progresses with gusts up to 40 kt
or so at times into this evening.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Highlights...
* Gale Warnings this afternoon and night
Today...low pressure emerges off Cape Ann before daybreak and tracks
northeast into Nova Scotia this afternoon, intensifying into a gale
center with a sub 980 mb low center. Strongest NW winds will be near
shore with gusts up to 35-45 kt, not as strong offshore given cooler
ocean vs warmer land temps. Dry weather and offshore winds will
support good vsby to the horizon.
Tonight...intense low pressure over the Maritimes and high pressure
over TN Valley will continue to support NW gales with gusts up to 35-
45 kt. A period of rain showers will lower vsby at times.
Saturday...intense Maritime low finally exits into the North
Atlantic and high pressure builds south of New England. This will
support diminishing winds and shifting from NW to W. Dry weather and
offshore winds will provide good vsby to the horizon.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>235-237-251.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Chai
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Chai/Nash
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Nocera/Chai
MARINE...Nocera/Chai