NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 2:59 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 2:59 PM EST, 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong northwest flow continues through Saturday with low
pressure across the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure across
the central and southern Appalachians. High pressure shifts
offshore of the southeast coast Saturday night into Sunday. A
backdoor cold front is forecast to sag into the Mid Atlantic
region Sunday night, before a sequence of low pressure systems
move across the region Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Objective upper-air analysis at 12z indicates deep troughing in
eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., with a 130+ kt 250-mb jet
streak from the Tennessee Valley east-northeast to off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. A strong perturbation, now evident on moisture-
channel imagery over the Great Lakes region, was sampled at 500 mb
in the Upper Midwest with an attendant 90+ kt jet streak surging
southeastward. The 500-mb temperatures were quite cold for this time
of year near the center of the low, with readings near or below -30C
in northern Michigan into central Ontario. Intense 850-mb cold
advection was occurring in the Great Lakes region and is racing
southeastward into the Appalachians this afternoon.
At the surface, an intense low off the coast of Maine was beginning
its pivot east-northeast to the Canadian Maritimes, with a strong
surface high building into Minnesota and vicinity. The pressure
gradient in between was leading to widespread strong winds in the
Northeast and Great Lakes. Several sites in our forecast area have
had peak gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph so far, and this is in
advance of the most favorable timing for peak winds (more on this
below).
A band of showers in advance of the aforementioned perturbation had
developed in the central Appalachians and will likely move through
portions of the area late this afternoon and early this evening,
especially for the southern half of the CWA. Nudged PoPs upward just
a little bit more, based on upstream radar trends. With 40-50 kt
winds at the top of the mixed layer, would expect strong to locally
damaging wind gusts in proximity to these showers. Synoptic-scale
winds will then surge for a time after the stronger cold advection
sweeps across the area this evening, collocated with intense surface-
pressure rises behind the reinforcing front late this afternoon.
Models have trended slightly lower with gusts this
afternoon/evening, but they also have verified on the low side so
far today. As a result, continued to forecast winds higher than
guidance, with the peak timing generally 21z to 03z with a
diminishing trend thereafter as the surface pressure rises gradually
lessen. All of this said, the high wind warning was unchanged with
this update, with numerous impacts expected across the region.
With the cold air aloft moving into the region overnight and the
favorable northwest flow, expect some occasional showers to continue
in the southern Poconos. Temperatures will likely be cold enough for
some snowflakes. No impacts are expected other than potentially
shaking heads or "oohs and ahhs," depending on your winter-weather
fandom.
Temperatures are a challenge again, as the intense cold advection
will be fighting strong boundary-layer mixing. Models have trended
colder today, but my suspicion is that consensus is slightly too
cold given the strong winds expected. Nevertheless, expect 30s in
areas north of I-80 and 40s elsewhere.
Once the intense vort max blasts eastward on Saturday, sky cover
will improve, with mostly sunny conditions expected (though clouds
may increase late in the northwest). Highs on Saturday will be near
seasonal averages. Expect winds to continue diminishing slowly
through the day as the low in the Canadian Maritimes continues its
progress east-northeastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An unsettled forecast begins late in the weekend during the
short term period, before continuing into the long term period
next week.
On Saturday night, a couple of weak surface troughs are
forecast to move across the area, while a couple of weak short
wave/vorticity impulses aloft move across the area as well.
There is not a significant amount of moisture forecast with
these impulses, but there could be just enough lift to squeeze
out a few showers across portions of northwest NJ and northeast
PA Saturday night.
For Sunday, a backdoor cold front is forecast to sag into the
area from the north, before stalling near or right over the
area. Again, there is still not much in the way of moisture
through Sunday night, so only a slight chance of showers is
expected across mainly northeast PA and northwest NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled forecast will continue into the first half of next
week, before a brief drying out period.
The backdoor cold front that is forecast to remain nearly
stationary across the area on Monday, before multiple waves of
low pressure lift across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states
and lift the front back northward as a warm front, before
pulling a cold front across the area. There remains quite a bit
of uncertainty with respect to where the stationary front stalls
out and when/where the surface lows will develop and move along
the boundary. There will be a chance of showers from Monday
through Wednesday, with even a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday
into Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.
Once the cold front moves through the area and the associated
low pressure lifts to the northeast, winds will shift to the
northwest and potentially become gusty on Thursday. This will
allow a brief drying period, but this may not last long.
Model guidance is indicating the potential for a coastal storm
to affect the east coast next Friday into Saturday. The timing
and location of the system vary from model to model, however, if
the storm remains close to land, a period of heavy rain and
gusty winds will be possible for the area, especially for
coastal areas.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through this evening...Mainly VFR (SCT-BKN CIGs 4000-8000 feet) with
northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts of 40+ kt at times. Peak
gusts may approach 50 kt late this afternoon through late evening
(generally 21z to 03z). Additionally, cannot rule out an isolated
shower or two, with very strong/erratic gusts in their proximity,
with the best chances of that through 22z. Moderate confidence.
Overnight...VFR with northwest winds diminishing to 15 to 25 kt with
gusts around 30 kt. High confidence.
Saturday...VFR with northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
kt. Winds will diminish and become more westerly during the
afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night-Sunday night...Generally VFR conditions
expected. Southwest to west winds 5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20
knots during the day Sunday.
Monday-Monday night...VFR in the morning, then a chance of MVFR
or lower conditions in the afternoon and evening with a chance
of rain. South to southwest winds during the day, becoming light
and variable overnight.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms which
may lead to locally MVFR or lower conditions. Otherwise, mostly
VFR. West to southwest winds 5-10 knots, shifting to northwest
later Tuesday or Wednesday with gusts 15-20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning was converted to a storm warning earlier this
afternoon for all waters, as observations on the coast have already
approached criteria, especially in proximity to any showers that
move through. However, the primary concern remains during the
evening hours, after an intense disturbance moves through the region
with strong cold advection sweeping through. Low-level thermal
profiles become quite favorable for deep mixing over the waters. A
period of very strong (40-50+ kt) wind gusts is likely between
around 7 pm and 3 am, with a rapid diminishing trend thereafter. A
brief gale warning will likely be required following the storm
warning, with gales likely ending by 10 am or so. Small craft
advisory conditions will then continue through mid-afternoon, before
winds and seas both subside below criteria by the end of the day.
OUTLOOK...
Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible overnight
Saturday.
Sunday-Wednesday...Conditions are expected to remain mostly below
advisory levels through the period. However, winds will gust around
20 knots at times and seas will build to around 4 feet at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will be low again Saturday, but will
likely lower into the low 20s, with upper teens possible for
some areas. Winds will not be as windy as Friday, but still gust
20-30 mph at times. After continued coordination with state
fire weather partners from across the area, most of the region
will be sufficiently wet and/or greened-up to avoid any
concerns. The one exception to this is Pine Barrens region of
New Jersey, where the green-up is slower where a Special
Weather Statement will likely be issued again.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
DE...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ001>004.
MD...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...CMS/Robertson
Marine...CMS/Robertson
Fire Weather...Robertson