A thunderstorm moving through Saxon Harbor produced strong wind gusts on the morning of the 24th.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A thunderstorm moving through Saxon Harbor produced strong wind gusts on the morning of the 24th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 24, 2:12 AM EST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2021 An overall quiet and breezy night has been observed across the area. With a LLJ over the region, some gusty winds near 20 have been observed all night at many reporting platforms. With ongoing WAA, these southerly winds have limited how low temps have fallen. So far most platforms have stayed in the 60s with some 70 degree observations in the west. The coolest locations are near Lake Michigan. There temps have broken into the 50s. Upstream convection progressing through MN has been the main focus tonight. DLH radar initially showed weak thunderstorm structures with outflow from an MCS over Nebraska eating away at the southern flank. Some organization has taken place since then and its these showers and thunderstorms that are expected to interact with 925 to 850mb LLJ over Lake Superior. Steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to play a role at maintaining the elevated convection as it moves over Lake Superior in the next few hours. Per usual, the CAMS are presenting mixed signals about the convection's evolution, but there has been a consistent signal among some for the past 24hrs that a split could occur, with an area of convection following the better frontal forcings and LLJ to the north, and a southern area progressing somewhere close to the instability gradient from MN into northern WI/western UP. MUCAPE and deep layer shear look to be enough to support thunderstorms becoming strong to severe (hail, wind, and heavy downpours) as they do move over the lake and into western Upper Michigan by early morning. There is enough moisture to also create some heavy downpours. The boundary is progged to continue into central Upper Michigan this morning with leftovers from tonight advancing through eastern Lake Superior and the eastern UP. The evolution of the current storms will play heavily into the progression of what happens this morning. If the split does occur then the central could miss a bulk of the action, whereas the areas near the MI/WI stateline toward the Bay of Green Bay could see the impacts from the southern segment through the mid-morning, and the northern area impact mainly parts of the lake and east, aided by some additional heating as the sunrises in the east. If the split doesn't happen and more of a linear convective area progresses east, most folks could get in on showers and some thunderstorms through late morning. In this later scenario, some CAMS are suggesting some degradation toward the south. So long story short, its a wait and see game to see how the current activity maintains itself, or doesn't, as it moves over the lake. Given the current trends compared to how the CAMS have been handling things so far, I'm more inclined to lean toward the split. As the main frontal boundary lingers over the area today, an early afternoon lull is progged to change as dinural heating helps support redevelopment across mainly the central and east during the afternoon and tonight. Confidence is a little low on anything in the west given the dependency on where the boundary is. Regardless, instability ahead of the boundary with the deep layer shear will be enough to support some strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds. PWATs climbing to near 1.8 inches ahead of the boundary will also make for some heavy rain in any thunderstorm. With the warm airmass persisting over the region and the added moisture factor from the convection, a muggy day is expected. Highs should climb to near 80F except by Lake Michigan and far east where temps will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Tonight, lows will be in the 50s and some areas of fog could develop. Strong southerly flow today ahead of the frontal boundary in the east will create some breezier conditions. These winds will help build waves off Lake Michigan and present a high swim risk for Schoolcraft County Beaches. Decided to maintain the Beach Hazard Statement for these dangerous swimming conditions. Additionally with wave heights between 6 and 8 feet expected east of Manistique, some beach erosion or lakeshore flooding is possible. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast with a broad 500 mb trough over the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. This broad 500 mb trough will remain over the area this forecast period. Models have backed off a bit on the pcpn chances and have more pops to the south and east then previous model runs. Otherwise, did not make too many changes. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes extending down to the central plains 12z Sun which remains stationary through the period. Temperatures will remain near normal for this forecast period and with upper troughing in the area, will also remain unsettled for weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 116 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2021 Primary concern at all three terminals overnight will be the convection currently in MN that will be moving into Upper Michigan, first impacting KIWD and KCMX, followed by KSAW. Although have included TEMPOs to account for the expected activity, even now uncertainty remains given how unimpressive the ongoing convection currently looks. But, other factors/parameters, including a LL jet overhead, may boost it as it enters this more favorable area. Aviation interests should plan accordingly, but anticipate that there remains a possibility that a direct impact to the terminal(s) may not end up occurring. Another round of convection continues to look possible for KSAW Thursday afternoon and have retained VCTS mention as such. Other than convection, a brief window of LLWS exists at KIWD and KSAW. As for winds at the surface, they'll remain elevated at the start of this TAF period but once the convection passes, expect the gradient winds to wane a bit. They'll become more northwesterly at KIWD and KCMX toward the end of the period, with KSAW remaining south-southwesterly for the bulk of the period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 306 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into western Lake Superior tonight and progress east through the morning. Frontal boundary stalling over the central UP and central Lake Superior will allow for some redevelopment tomorrow afternoon and evening. The environment for both events looks to be enough to support some strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours that could quickly reduce visibilities. Additionally, the added effect of rain onto the cooler lake will create areas of fog, which could be dense at times. Ahead of this activity tonight, low level jet will make for some southerly gale force gusts in the east, particularly for high reporting platforms overnight tonight. Following the fronts exit, winds are expected to be 20 knots or less through early next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...lg MARINE...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-241200- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 /256 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Some of the storms could be strong to severe and produce high winds and large hail. Waves on Lake Michigan building to around 6 feet into tonight could lead to minor beach erosion and localized lakeshore flooding for the Schoolcraft County shoreline east of Manistique. There will also be a high swim risk for southern Schoolcraft County this evening. There is a Beach Hazards Statement in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday High swim risk will continue for the Lake Michigan beaches of Schoolcraft county on Thursday. See the latest beach hazards statement for further details. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Friday night. Some of the storms Thursday could be strong and produce high winds and large hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-241200- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 /256 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Strong to severe storms with large hail are possible over western Lake Superior .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms are again possible Thursday into Friday, mainly over the southeast portion of the lake. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-241200- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms are again possible Thursday through Friday. Some storms could be severe on Thursday and produce large hail and strong gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. 07
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 139 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:20 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Saxon Harbor GLOS measured thunderstorm wind gusts to 43 mph on the morning of the 24th.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 963377.