Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 24, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
259 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Cloud cover has been fairly thick and widespread across the region
today, largely thanks to convective debris from last night and
continued perturbations aloft. Even some light rain showers have
started to develop across the area as of 2:30pm. As such,
temperatures have ended up a bit cooler for most of the area, and
this will likely put a damper on severe weather for most of the area
this evening.

That being said, models still develop robust convection near or just
to the east/southeast of the forecast area by 5pm. There is an
area of relatively clear skies and cumulus development from
Osborne up to Mankato, KS, and this will be the primary area to
look for storm development. Any storms that develop in this area
will have potential to be supercellular with 2-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and around 40kts of bulk shear to work with. This would bring all
hazards (tornado, hail, wind) into play. Fortunately, the window
for these storms is rather short, with most models pushing them
eastward out of the area within an hour or two.

Later tonight, attention shifts to convection moving out of western
KS/NE. CAM ensembles show the most robust convection remaining over
KS, which is reasonable given the better available moisture and
instability. If these storms can organize into a convective line,
strong damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Farther north
across Nebraska, the severe threat is lower, but scattered showers
and thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight.

On Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the
morning, with additional development as early as midday as the upper
trough axis moves in from the west. The severe threat is still a
little uncertain, but it appears that at least a few strong to
severe updrafts are possible thanks to cooler air aloft and surface
dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

For the weekend, low level moisture and available instability will
be on the decrease. Severe weather is unlikely, but a few showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible both Saturday and Sunday.
High temperatures will also dip below normal...only reaching the
70s to low 80s.

The upper trough is trending slower on exiting the area, so our
warmup for next week has also trended slower. Nevertheless, it
appears that highs will eventually return to near normal (high sin
the upper 80s) by the end of next week. Although the pattern is
somewhat dry, we will have at least some chances for
rain/thunderstorms, especially late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

An area of MVFR cloud cover has pushed in from the north, mainly
as a remnant of last nights thunderstorms. This should slowly
break up through the afternoon, but mid to high level cloudiness
will continue.

There is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening, but most of the evening hours will likely
end up being dry at GRI/EAR. Additional chances for thunderstorms
then arrive late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected over portions of the area late this
afternoon and this evening. The highest risk for severe weather is
southeast of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Hebron,
Nebraska. Initial thunderstorms may develop as early as 4pm with
additional chances arriving from the west after 10pm. The severe
threat will diminish after 3am. Threats include hail to the size
of golf balls and wind gusts up to 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, some of
which could be strong to severe. Exact details of the severe
threat are uncertain, but it appears the greatest risk will be
near and south of the state line.

Off and on thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend, but
this activity is not expected to be widespread or severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will may be needed for portions of the outlook
area late this afternoon and into the overnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

NEZ062-075-242145-
Adams NE-Hall NE-
358 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAMS AND HALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prosser, or 12 miles northwest of Hastings, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Alda and Hansen around 415 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Doniphan and Grand
Island.

LAT...LON 4060 9869 4065 9873 4084 9872 4100 9828
      4067 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 244DEG 24KT 4072 9855

Mangels