During the daytime hours on January 25th, a strong low pressure system began approaching Kentucky from the west, resulting in a warm front lifting towards the region from the south. A surface trough was also analyzed across the state during the day.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
During the daytime hours on January 25th, a strong low pressure system began approaching Kentucky from the west, resulting in a warm front lifting towards the region from the south. A surface trough was also analyzed across the state during the day. As this system neared throughout the day, elevated instability increased, as did the upper level wind speeds. Thunder was reported with rain showers on the morning of the 25th, but convective activity increased heading into the evening as the warm front lifted north into the state, increasing the instability aloft. Thunderstorms were reported producing severe size hail, with temperatures still at 40 degrees at the surface. As temperatures warmed, stronger winds also accompanied the hail, especially along the southern KY border. This resulted in several downed trees across the area. In addition, with such high winds above the stable layer, these storms were very progressive, with storm motions as high as 80 mph to the east.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 5:41 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 541 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 541 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021 Surface low pressure over the Ozarks will shift eastward through the overnight, riding up the Ohio River Valley. This slow moving system will lift a warm front northward through eastern Kentucky during the overnight period and then a cold front through the area by Thursday morning. WPC maintained an area of a marginal threat of excessive rainfall for the Commonwealth through tonight. Additional convection is firing upstream and short term high resolution models show that activity riding northeast into and through our area during the overnight. SPC mesoanalysis shows an upstream environment of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 35-60 kts. RAP forecasts show this environment lifting northeast into our area and SPC HREF suggests that mean 250-500 MUCAPE and shear will lift into eastern Kentucky over the next several hours. Thus maintained thunder through the evening as yet another round of precipitation pushes through the region. Already seeing a few stronger cells being highlighted by upstream WFOs. So an isolated strong storm with mainly gusty winds can not be completely ruled out. Brief, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Excessive runoff will cause local streams and rivers to swell through the day Tuesday. The current HWO has this handled. Once we get through tonight, sensible weather settles down considerably. Tomorrow, dry weather and sunshine will lift temperatures to around 60 across the south, and in the 50s across our north, where lingering clouds will help keep temps slightly cooler. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 541 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021 We begin the extended portion of the forecast Wednesday in a brief period of modest ridging aloft across the eastern Ohio Valley. Just to our west, a shortwave trough rides over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Ridging across the Rockies and western Plains separates this shortwave trough from a deeper trough of the northwestern US coast. The system at the surface that is currently bringing the widespread rainfall in the near term will have moved well off to our east at this point. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will be beginning to develop in the deep south. The shortwave trough to our west will beginning to move over our area through the day Wednesday, while the surface low will continue to travel east and northeast across the Southeast, sending precip towards our area. Generally, precip is set to begin impacting the area not too long after 18z Wednesday afternoon. Most guidance is in fair agreement over the pattern evolution, other than the Canadian keeping the shortwave further to the west a little longer, consequently delaying the initial onset of precipitation. However, given that this solution is not as favored in ensembles, have elected to put less stock in it. With the surface low passing to our south, our area is kept in the cooler sector, allowing for some snow to mix its way in. Generally this change over will happen as a gradual transition from northwest to southeast, with the exception of the higher terrain generally transitioning earlier. Accumulations look to be modest, generally less than an inch, though higher amounts are possible in the higher terrain. Generally the precip will exit out to the east by Thursday morning as the surface low pushes east off the coast. Heights aloft will be on the rise through the day as ridging moves in from the west, while high pressure dominates at the surface. All combined, conditions will stay clear and dry through the first part of the weekend. However, the dry weather does not last. Another upper level trough will work its way towards the region over the second half of the weekend, supporting the development of a low at the surface over the Plains. This sends along our next round of precip, generally beginning Saturday afternoon. However, while there is more agreement over the general pattern, the specifics around the evolution of both the features aloft and at the surface are still not well resolved. So, have kept more in line with the thinking of the previous forecaster and kept the PoPs constrained to just likely given all the uncertainty. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 104 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021 Challenging forecast this afternoon. Warm frontal boundary is lifting northward and is approaching the KY/TN state line. First round of moderate to locally heavy rain which is currently passing through the area has some thunder associated with it but activity appears to be waning as it lifts further north and east. Another round of moderate to heavy rain continues to take shape further west and should affect our more northern terminals with time. IFR or lower flight conditions improve a bit south of the warm front which is expected to lift north through eastern Kentucky later this evening and tonight. Thus VSBYS/CIGS will only gradually improve until the boundary clears the area during the overnight period. Thunder will continue to be possible late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will generally rise to between 5 and 10 kts and become more southerly with time. Additionally, a strong low level jet in place across the boundary means the threat of low level wind shear will continue until the surface boundary lifts out of the region. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...RAY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A slow moving storm system will bring locally heavy rainfall to the area tonight. Some minor flooding will be possible in low lying areas. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly through the evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Some significant rises will occur along portions of the Kentucky and Red River basins on Tuesday. There is a chance of snow Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GEOGERIAN/JMW/RAY
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service JACKSON KY 316 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 KYZ068-069-079-080-114-116-252045- Jackson-Clay-Owsley-Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski- 316 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAUREL...NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY...NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES... At 315 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pine Hill, or near Mount Vernon, moving east at 80 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mount Vernon, McKee, Donaro, Travellers Rest, Bummer, Blake, Robinet, Shop Branch, Bandy, Fogertown, Tyner, Privett, Horse Lick, Spiro, Renfro Valley, Mershons, Shepherdtown, Hazel Patch, Pine Hill and Camp Wildcat. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. LAT...LON 3744 8443 3749 8370 3716 8366 3723 8458 TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 260DEG 68KT 3734 8428 KAS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
330 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
KYZ060-068-069-080-106>109-111>116-252100-
Clay-Johnson-Morgan-Rockcastle-Wolfe-Laurel-Jackson-Menifee-Lee-
Breathitt-Perry-Knott-Owsley-Magoffin-
330 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OWSLEY...JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN KNOTT...SOUTHEASTERN MENIFEE...LEE...WOLFE...NORTHERN
LAUREL...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN
PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE...BREATHITT...MAGOFFIN AND CLAY
COUNTIES...
At 329 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Maytown to Ida May to near Hare. Movement
was east at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Salyersville, Beattyville, Manchester, McKee, Campton,
Booneville, Mason, Simpson, Lewis, Fincastle, Buckhorn, Turin,
Travellers Rest, Southfork, Cowcreek, Shop Branch, Fogertown, Falcon
and Tyner.
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3719 8434 3723 8438 3755 8387 3789 8357
3782 8286 3747 8309 3727 8334 3732 8340
3729 8347 3723 8353 3720 8351 3717 8355
3711 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 275DEG 43KT 3785 8348 3752 8375 3723 8413
KASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
336 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
KYZ068-079-080-083>086-116-252100-
Whitley-McCreary-Clay-Knox-Wayne-Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
336 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...LAUREL...
NORTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...MCCREARY...SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKCASTLE...NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY AND WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES...
At 335 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bloss to near Byrdstown. Movement
was east at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, London, Monticello, Manchester, Whitley City, Burnside,
Fariston, Cumberland Falls S.P., Co-
Operative, Mount Victory, Bush, Krupp, Herron, Hooker, Bark Camp,
Blue Heron, Honeybee, Alpine, Ruth and Dorthae.
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3661 8491 3662 8499 3663 8500 3668 8500
3669 8502 3672 8502 3675 8501 3678 8501
3721 8437 3714 8373 3659 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 272DEG 38KT 3718 8434 3662 8517
KASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
402 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
KYZ109-110-112>115-117>120-252145-
Breathitt-Perry-Martin-Floyd-Pike-Knott-Owsley-Magoffin-Letcher-
Leslie-
402 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MARTIN...
NORTHWESTERN LETCHER...SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...NORTHERN LESLIE...
PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD...CENTRAL BREATHITT...NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...
At 402 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Gapville to Barcreek. Movement was east
at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Hazard, Prestonsburg, Williamson, Hindman, Hyden, Letcher,
Estill, Bath, Coal Run Village, Wheelwright, Martin, Pippa Passes,
Forest Hills, Wayland, Vicco, Allen, Buckhorn, Blackey and Elic.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3762 8218 3711 8301 3716 8355 3720 8351
3723 8353 3725 8351 3726 8357 3732 8362
3771 8310 3770 8230 3763 8221 3765 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 266DEG 51KT 3764 8298 3723 8365
KASSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service JACKSON KY 404 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 KYZ080-084>088-115>118-252145- Whitley-McCreary-Clay-Knox-Perry-Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Laurel-Leslie- 404 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HARLAN... SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL...BELL...KNOX...WEST CENTRAL LETCHER...LESLIE... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY...WHITLEY AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES... At 404 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Tanksley to near Great Meadows Campsites. Movement was east at 50 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Williamsburg, Barbourville, Pineville, Manchester, Hyden, Middlesboro, Whitley City, Loyall, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Big Fork, Brightshade, Varilla, Swan Lake, Cumberland Falls S.P., Coldiron, Goose Rock, Black Snake, Bush and Cranes Nest. If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building. LAT...LON 3660 8471 3722 8380 3714 8291 3658 8373 TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 263DEG 56KT 3718 8370 3657 8464 KAS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
KYZ087-088-115-118-120-252215-
Perry-Pike-Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
433 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARLAN...BELL...
LETCHER...SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTIES...
At 432 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Mousie to near Wilkerson. Movement was
east at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Whitesburg, Harlan, Pineville, Middlesboro, Letcher,
Cumberland, Jenkins, Loyall, Elkhorn City, Evarts, Fleming-Neon,
Lynch, Benham, Vicco, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Varilla, Louellen and
Premium.
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3659 8393 3665 8395 3694 8351 3690 8351
3689 8341 3701 8319 3713 8322 3723 8307
3717 8298 3727 8275 3744 8259 3744 8211
3727 8235 3712 8272 3698 8287 3690 8287
3685 8307 3674 8314 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 275DEG 60KT 3740 8286 3656 8397
KASThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:29 UTC.
2 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported hail estimated at 1 inch from a firehouse in the community of Eubank.
Hail estimated at half an inch fell 3 miles WSW of Mount Vernon according to a report made on Twitter.
High winds caused a tree to fall on Rattlesnake Ridge Road just north of the community of Co-operative in McCreary County.
High winds caused a tree to fall across Hwy 1064 near the community of Mulberry.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931534, 931533, 931535, 931536.