This Thursday was one of the overall-windiest days of the 2021 fall season across this six-county North Central Kansas area, especially during the afternoon hours when sustained north-northwesterly speeds were commonly 30-40 MPH and gusting 45-55 MPH. m.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
This Thursday was one of the overall-windiest days of the 2021 fall season across this six-county North Central Kansas area, especially during the afternoon hours when sustained north-northwesterly speeds were commonly 30-40 MPH and gusting 45-55 MPH. Although the vast majority of local weather stations fell short of High Wind criteria gusts of 58+ MPH, three unofficial mesonet sensors all clocked peak gusts of 62 MPH between 2-4 p.m. CDT: one in rural southeastern Rooks County and two others in the Jewell County communities of Jewell and Randall. There were no known reports of damage from these gradient winds, which gradually eased to more tolerable levels during the late afternoon and evening. On the synoptic scale, these strong north-northwest winds were driven by a stout surface pressure gradient between a slow-moving low centered over southeastern Missouri at mid-afternoon (993 millibars) and an expansive ridge parked over the Intermountain West (1028 millibars). In between these features, a broad corridor of 50-knot winds developed at the 850-millibar level over the heart of the Central Plains, with deepening mixing and steepening low level lapse rates during the afternoon allowing these higher momentum winds to transfer to the surface. Taking a closer look at the magnitude of the surface pressure gradient across the state of Kansas, it actually peaked during the morning hours at a notable 22 millibars, ranging from 998 in the far southeast to 1020 in the far northwest.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 28, 11:53 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Main issues of this forecast include wind speeds/gusts today/tonight and sky cover today. At the synoptic level, although the strong shortwave trough axis has moved far enough east to keep rain activity just east of the CWA, sky cover may be difficult to forecast. A closed low has developed at the base of the negatively tilted trough and has really slowed this feature significantly. Therefore, sky cover will probably hang on in our eastern CWA for much of the day into the night. Going a bit closer to the more pessimistic HREF compared to the NBM initialization of moving the thicker sky cover east more quickly today. Numerical models advertise mixing up to roughly 825 mb today where wind speed of 45-50 KTS are forecast, give or take. Much of this will transfer to the surface, taking off roughly 5-10 KTS as the due to overall friction and not quite perfect dry adiabatic lapse rate near the top of the mixed layer. This will leave us with max wind gusts of roughly 40 KTS or so (45-50 mph, locally up to 55 mph wind gusts) for most locations, a bit too low to consider a High Wind Warning at this point. Wind speeds tonight were raised a fair bit as the surface pressure gradient takes its time to relax. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph should still be common in the early evening. The strongest wind gusts of the day should occur in the 1-4 PM time frame. Upper level ridging and subsidence will give us a dry span between Friday and Sunday with pretty much seasonable weather, although Sunday will be on the cool side of seasonable with highs in the mid 40s for south central Nebraska to near 50 in north central Kansas following a cold front passage on Saturday afternoon/evening. Still looks like a small shot at some light snow/rain coming Sunday night as a trough cross the northern Plains, with a considerable jet near the base to help produce some jet induced light snow (potentially near the right rear quadrant of an upper jet). Precip may continue into the afternoon on Monday as a separate perturbation/trough crosses into the central Plains out of the Rockies, eventually joining the upper midwest trough near the base. Temperatures during the day Monday should be warm enough to support liquid precipitation if it occurs at all by then. Both the ECMWF and GFS paint some light QPF for us Sunday night into Monday at least somewhere in our CWA, although the ECMWF does not place the upper level jet streak as close as the GFS and the ECMWF seems to rely a bit more in the perturbation/trough coming in earlier out of the central Rockies onto the central Plains for our light snow potential. Still early, so this could change a bit as we approach this time period. Bottom line is that this does not appear to be a scenario where there would be potential for heavy snow for the morning following Halloween. Looks like a freeze is on the way for most by Monday morning, and as a surface high moves in by Tuesday morning, give us a hard freeze, probably ending the growing season for much if not most of the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 The big story will be the strong winds through tonight with wind gusts of 40-50 mph through sunset and then strong low level wind shear during the overnight hours. Skies should remain clear. The wind will be much lighter on Friday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Heinlein AVIATION...Wesely
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 558 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 291200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 558 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Northwest winds will gust to around 45 to 50 mph today with a few spots potentially gusting to 55 mph. The very strongest wind gusts will occur between 1PM and 4 PM this afternoon. Northwest winds remain strong tonight as gusts to near 40 mph this evening will be common and will slowly decrease overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Freezing temperatures are expected for most of the outlook area Sunday night into Monday morning and a hard freeze is forecast for most of the outlook area by Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Heinlein
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located eight miles north-northeast of Codell.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located in Jewell.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located in Randall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989477, 989478, 989479.