During a roughly 36-hour stretch between the evening of Sunday January 24th and the morning of Tuesday the 26th, a major winter storm took direct aim on the entire NWS Hastings coverage area, dropping a widespread 6-12 of heavy snow, with unofficial higher reports of up to around 15. For all areas, the majority of snow piled up between 6am-6pm on the 25th, snarling travel and shutting down…
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
During a roughly 36-hour stretch between the evening of Sunday January 24th and the morning of Tuesday the 26th, a major winter storm took direct aim on the entire NWS Hastings coverage area, dropping a widespread 6-12 of heavy snow, with unofficial higher reports of up to around 15. For all areas, the majority of snow piled up between 6am-6pm on the 25th, snarling travel and shutting down countless schools and businesses at the start of the work-week. For some areas, this was the biggest winter storm (in terms of snow amounts) in at least five years, since at least the Groundhog Day storm/blizzard of Feb. 2, 2016. Although snow amounts varied somewhat across the area (generally highest within counties along/east of the Highway 281 corridor and lowest farther west), this event was a bit unique in that the entire coverage area received several inches of snow, with no truly sharp divide between low amounts and high amounts. While snow was the only precipitation type for most of north central Kansas, a brief period of freezing rain/light icing was noted mainly in/near Mitchell County KS. From a moisture (melted liquid) perspective, this storm was actually very beneficial, featuring widespread totals of mainly 0.50-1.20. This was not a bad thing considering the area was in at least moderate drought going into this storm. Despite causing significant disruptions to travel, fortunately this storm was not a true/crippling blizzard, as sustained winds speeds through most of it averaged 15-25 MPH/gusts up to 30-35 MPH. Snow became dry enough, though, to promote at least moderate drifting towards the end of the event. Temperatures were also not extreme during this event, generally in the teens and 20s.
Briefly covering the meteorological background and timing: The primary feature was a potent mid-upper level low pressure system that gradually tracked east-northeast from the CO/KS border area on the morning of the 25th, across the heart of our local area during the daylight hours (promoting the heaviest snow during that time), and then departing into IA by daybreak on the 26th. The first flakes started flying on the evening of the 24th, while the last few flurries faded away by sunrise on the 26th. From a forecasting perspective, this storm was a little bit sneaky in the sense that it was not obvious several days beforehand that it would end up being a major storm in terms of snowfall amounts. In fact, as little as 3 days before the event some computer models still suggested a weaker storm, with generally light to moderate amounts. However, by Saturday afternoon (Jan. 23), concern had grown enough in the potential for a bigger storm that the first Winter Storm Watch was issued for southeastern portions of the area. By early Sunday morning (Jan. 24), it was finally very apparent that this system was indeed going to be a major snow-maker, and a Winter Storm Warning was issued for all of north central Kansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 12:16 AM CST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1216 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
The main story in this forecast package is clearly the winter
storm late tonight through Monday. Confidence remains high that
this will be a significant event for the portions of the area. Of
secondary concern is another light snow event late Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night.
For tonight, we are expecting precipitation to gradually develop
from south to north, mainly after midnight. As it develops,
saturation aloft will lag behind, therefore a brief period (3 to 6
hours) of light freezing drizzle is possible before snow
develops. Most locations should be seeing all snow by sunrise on
Monday, and southern portions of the forecast area could already
have 1 to 3 inches of snow on the ground.
On Monday, the surface low will track trough eastern KS into MO,
allowing a broad band of snow to persist across the area. The
majority of the snow will fall during the daylight hours, and
models continue to be in good agreement in a significant, heavy
snow event for at least the southeastern half of the area. In
fact, the GFS, which had previously been much farther southeast,
has come more in line with the Euro and Euro ensemble showing a
broad band of 6 to 12 inches of snow impacting our forecast area.
Confidence in amounts decreases as you move northwestward, and
there will almost certainly be a very sharp cutoff in amounts,
likely somewhere northwest of the tri-cities.
Total QPF has remained pretty consistent with this forecast
package, generally ranging from 0.30-1.10" from north to south,
which results in 3-12" of snowfall. Despite the relatively cold
air, a somewhat shallow dendritic growth zone may keep snow ratios
a little on the lower side....probably in the 9-13:1 range
overall. Therefore, this snow will be on the wetter, heavier side
which will make it more difficult to move.
Snow will gradually wind down Monday evening, and accumulating
snow will come to an end for most areas by late Monday night. That
said, some light snow or flurries could hang on during the
daytime on Tuesday, aided by upslope flow in the low to mid
levels. Then, the snow rates will increase again late Tuesday
afternoon as the next upper trough pushes into the area. The bulk
of this snow will fall during the evening and overnight, ending by
daybreak on Wednesday. This still appears to be a 1-3" event, and
hasn't shown any signs of overproducing at this point.
Dry conditions return for the rest of the work week. With
clearing skies and fresh snowpack, we could easily see low
temperatures dip to the low single digits Wednesday night.
Temperatures will then slowly trend upward Thursday and Friday,
with highs reaching the upper 30s and low 40s by Friday afternoon.
Another system may impact parts of the area with rain and snow on
Saturday, but at this time it appears to be primarily an issue for
eastern Kansas and Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
General overview:
Sub-VFR conditions throughout the period. BY FAR the main issue is
a fairly major winter storm that will peak in intensity during
the heart of this valid period (mainly Monday daytime),
potentially dumping 6+ inches of relatively dense (not very
fluffy) snow on both KGRI/KEAR. Overall no significant changes
from 00Z issuance.
Precipitation/visibility:
The overall-lightest snow will surely occur during the first few
and then final hours of the period, during which time no worse
than IFR to MVFR visibility is expected. Some of the reduced
visibility right away early this morning will also be from light
fog. During the daytime hours Monday the peak of the snow storm
will hit, with much of the 13-00Z time frame featuring at best
low-end IFR visibility, and likely several hours of at least LIFR
particularly 17-00Z, during which time prevailing 1/2SM is
advertised in moderate snow. At least brief/very poor 1/4SM
cannot be ruled out, but have not included as prevailing at this
time.
Ceilings:
Ceilings are already in IFR/LIFR territory, and expect these
categories to be the prevailing story throughout the vast majority
of the period. Late in the period Monday evening as the "main
event" starts to fade, will attempt to advertise a return to low-
end MVFR, but this is medium-confidence at best.
Winds:
As Central Plains snow storms go, this one is a "medium"
intensity/impact in terms of winds. For sure, the lightest speeds
(sustained only around 10KT from the east-northeast) will occur
right away early this morning. But by around sunrise and after,
intensifying low pressure will kick up northerly winds through
much of the remainder of the period, often sustained at least
15-18KT with frequent gusts up to around 25KT. Obviously this will
be enough to cause at least modest blowing snow/drifting snow as
well.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
NEZ039>041.
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...PfannkuchHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 831 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 251215- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 831 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Freezing drizzle and light snow are expected tonight and a Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at midnight for the majority of the outlook area. Please refer to the warning statement for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Heavy snow is expected on Monday, gradually tapering off in the evening and overnight. A Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire outlook area. Please refer to the Warning and Advisory statements for further details. Another, weaker storm system is expected to bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow to the area Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but any snow measurements are always appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 6 to 9 inches across the county. The highest totals included 7.5 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 5 E of Phillipsburg and 6.0 inches from the Cooperative Observer located in Logan.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 6 to 9 inches across the county. The highest totals included 7.0 inches from the Cooperative Observer located in Smith Center and 6.0 inches from the Cooperative Observer located in Lebanon.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 6 to 12 inches across the county. The highest totals included 12.0 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 2 ENE of Webber, 8.8 inches from the Cooperative Observer in Ionia, and 6.0 inches from the Cooperative Observer in Jewell.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches across the county. The highest totals included 6.4 inches from the Cooperative Observer located 4 WNW of Plainville and 5.5 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 10 WNW of Stockton.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 6 to 10 inches across the county, based on surrounding county reports and a total of 6.0 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 6 NNE of Natoma.
Two-day storm total snowfall amounts ranged from 6 to 10 inches across the county. The highest totals included 9.5 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 2 NNW of Hunter, 9.0 inches from the Cooperative Observer located in Beloit, 8.0 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer located 4 SSW of Scottsville, and 7.5 inches from the Cooperative Observer located in Cawker City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931434, 931435, 931436, 931437, 931438, 931439.