High Wind in Kansas, December 5, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Midday water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper level
trough digging into the northern plains, and this feature is
responsible for the cold front in far northern KS that will
continue southward and pass through our area later this afternoon
and evening. While tempered slightly by the frontal passage
timing, north winds behind the front will still be quite strong,
with winds sustained in the 25-35 mph range and gusts of 35-45 mph
likely. These winds will also contribute to strong cold advection,
and temperatures will drop well below freezing through the
overnight period with lows reaching the low teens in our
northwest zones to the upper 20s in our southeast zones.

Surface high pressure will build into the entirety of the plains
Monday in the wake of the strong cold front, which will maintain
the north winds across southwest KS through most of the day,
although much weaker. As a result, afternoon temperatures will be
25-30 degrees colder than Sunday, with highs struggling to breach
40 for most locations, except near the KS/OK border where low 40s
are expected. Cloud cover will also be steadily increasing as
subtle shortwave impulses approach the central plains on the
western periphery of the broad longwave trough over the CONUS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Medium range guidance is in good agreement the upper level pattern
at the beginning of the long term period will consist of a broad
longwave trough over the entire CONUS, with a few weak
perturbations emanating through the flow. This pattern will not
change appreciably through Thursday, and a gradual warming trend
is expected with otherwise quiet weather. Afternoon highs will
increase from the mid to upper 40s Tuesday through the upper 50s
to mid 60s on Thursday.

12Z deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian continue to
suggest a strong, progressive upper level trough will dig
southward from the Pacific Northwest on Friday, but have trended
farther north since this time yesterday with the track. This bodes
poorly for precipitation chances across southwest KS, as now the
GFS and ECMWF keep all zones dry, and the Canadian shows only
paltry precipitation. That said, a strong cold front is still
expected to push through the central plains sometime Friday,
dropping temperatures below freezing Friday night into Saturday
morning and ensuring that if any precipitation does occur, it
will fall as snow. This large change in model output compared to
yesterday highlights the inherent low predictability at this
forecast range, which renders confidence in either yesterday's or
today's forecasted scenario low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Strong north-northeast winds at the beginning of this TAF period
will gradually weaken through the night as high pressure continues
to build south across the Central High Plains. Behind the front,
no widespread stratus cloud is expected, so flight category will
be VFR through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  40  25  45 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  20  39  24  46 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  20  42  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  20  41  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  21  37  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
P28  27  43  25  45 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
407 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
407 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 /307 AM MST Sun Dec 5 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will cross southwest Kansas this afternoon. Southwest
winds will turn northerly at 20 to 25 mph after 3 pm with wind
gusts around 40 mph in the late afternoon and evening. Combined
with low relative humidity, this will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions especially west of a Hays to Liberal line this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc