Showers and thunderstorms increased in coverage through the evening of the 14th as a slowly-approaching cold front focused deep moisture and lift over central Indiana. Widespread rains continued into early on the 15th before the front passed.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IND wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms increased in coverage through the evening of the 14th as a slowly-approaching cold front focused deep moisture and lift over central Indiana. Widespread rains continued into early on the 15th before the front passed. A band of maximum rainfall, totaling 1 to 3 inches, stretched along the Interstate 69 corridor...with flooding reported at the southwestern end of this band where antecedent soils were wettest.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 2:00 AM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 .Short Term...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 ...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... Today and Tonight. As of early this morning, surface observations showed that the cold front was roughly located along a line stretching from Terre Haute to Muncie but it is quite diffuse with little surface flow across the area. Heavy rain with a few rumbles of thunder continues to fall along the front as the LLJ has ramped up and the 850mb flow is advecting in plenty of moisture into a strong area of lift aloft. This initial wave of rain will exit the area as the initial band of forcing moves into Ohio. The brief break in the rain today will allow for some modest heating creating a pocket of weak instability across the southeastern counties which will be in the warm sector compared to the areas further northwest where northwesterly winds will advect cooler air and limit the surface instability with just a weak area of elevated CAPE. The severe threat today will be dependent on how far southeast the front moves during the late morning to afternoon hours with latest Hi-Res models showing that the front may exit the area by late this evening which is when the next batch of forcing aloft arrives. Current thoughts are that there will be some surface based convection during the early to mid afternoon hours but that should be undercut by the exiting front which will lead to a more elevated storm mode by the evening and early overnight hours when the best shear arrives. The severe threat is certainly there with the strong dynamics, but do question whether the storms will be surface based by the time of the best shear aloft. Best chances look to be across the southeastern counties with minimal risk in areas to the northwest. Rain looks to fully exit the area after midnight with strong CAA and high pressure beginning to build. Total rain amounts between now and tonight look to be around a half inch with locally higher amounts likely. Saturday. The coolest weather of the season is expected for Saturday with strong northwesterly flow aloft and CAA at the surface. The arriving airmass will also be much drier which will allow for the clouds to fully clear out by the morning hours after temperatures begin the day in the mid to upper 40s across the area. Even with the abundant sunshine, the CAA and cool air aloft will lead to temperatures to struggle to get out of the 50s for much of central Indiana. The strong surface pressure gradients will also make for a breezy day with frequent wind gusts over 20 mph. && .Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A very broad upper ridge will encompass much of the western and central U.S. during the long term period with a departing upper low over eastern Canada. For central Indiana, this will mean an extended period of dry conditions from Saturday night through Wednesday morning. Strong radiational cooling at night will lead to some of the coolest nights of the season as overnight lows drop into the 40s. There will, however, be a shift back to above normal temperatures starting Monday as surface flow backs to the southwest ahead of an Intermountain West cut off low. That low will end up being the focus of the second half of the forecast period as it continues its track through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Will start to introduce slight chance Pops back into the forecast starting Wednesday afternoon, but isentropic lift doesn't really start to ramp up until Wednesday night/Thursday with the associated surface cold front ahead of the upper low. For now, will leave mention of thunder out of the forecast with a lack of instability. But, additional forcing from the trailing upper low should be enough to necessitate rain chances through Thursday night. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1137 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 IMPACTS: - Flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and possibly worse IFR predawn. - Isolated lightning possible mainly near BMG. - A return to MVFR on late morning and afternoon...but more rain will be expected aft 152200Z. DISCUSSION: An area of showers associated will push across NW parts of the forecast area impacting the LAF and HUF and IND taf sites early in the TAf period. A weak boundary was stalled across the southern parts of Central Indiana...but still north of BMG. As the rain as seen on radar moves across the area...IFR cigs are expected to develop near daybreak...but conditions should improve through the morning hours as the forcing with the showers exits and daytime heating resumes. Kept any thunder mention closer to BMG where instability appears to be a bit stronger. Another surge of moisture and forcing within the tropical flow aloft is expected to arrive on Friday afternoon and Friday night. This will bring a return to more MVFR Cigs and areas of rain. Winds will be northwest at most of the TAF sites...with the exception of BMG as that location will be ahead of the stalled frontal boundary. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Short Term...White Long Term...TDUD Aviation...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1104 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-160315- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 1104 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight, with the greatest concentration of both thunderstorms and rainfall northwest of a line from about Washington to New Castle, Indiana. Localized flooding will be possible. An isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out, with the chief threat damaging winds. Cloud to ground lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. After a brief lull in activity in the morning Friday, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue the rest of the day. A few storms could become severe Friday afternoon and evening across areas mainly south of a Washington to New Castle, Indiana line. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, but isolated tornadoes and large hail can not be ruled out. Cloud to ground lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. Storm total rainfall through Friday night will be up to 2.25 inches. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening and Friday afternoon and early evening. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
One vehicle stalled in high water at the intersection of US Highway 41 and 6th Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988362.