Wildfire in Florida, June 1 to 5, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
758 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Generally easterly flow as the unsettled pattern continues. A Gulf
sea breeze is expected to develop and turn APF out of the west in
the afternoon. The morning convection will focus over the Atlantic
before transitioning westward through the day as the Atlantic sea
breeze advances inland. Terminals directly impacted by convection
could experience sub-VFR. Short-fused AMDs likely today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 350 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021)

SHORT TERM (Through Wednesday night)...

A barotropic upper low lingers along the eastern periphery of the
Florida peninsula. Meanwhile low-level easterly flow continues to
advect relatively moist (PW around 1.6-1.8 ins) air towards South
Florida. With a modest Atlantic sea-breeze expected to develop this
afternoon, scattered to numerous convection will be possible across
the region today. Given the low-level flow orientation, a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the east
coast metro from late morning through early afternoon. A developed
Atlantic sea-breeze should propagate inland thereafter, allowing
greater localized convergence and hence convective development over
the interior and Gulf coast. Storms will likely remain sub-severe
however, as synoptic subsidence (owing to upper level convergence),
a backed tropospheric wind profile, and slightly warmer temperatures
aloft will limit the depth of most storms.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned upper low shifts slightly eastward,
broadening out and decoupling as a western Atlantic ridge becomes
more zonally elongated. This will likely further limit strong storm
potential, as temperatures aloft become warmer and already paltry
effective bulk shear decreases in magnitude. With the continuation
of low-level east/southeast flow and deep layer easterly steering
flow, convection will continue to be favored over the east coast in
the morning, and interior/Gulf coast by afternoon/evening.

Maximum temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year,
perhaps a degree or two below climatological normals over the east
coast (mid 80s), while upper 80s/lower 90s are anticipated elsewhere.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday Night through Friday...

A mid to upper low pressure area over the Bahamas will gradually
weaken as surface high pressure to our northeast maintains a low-
level east to southeast wind regime. This will keep decent moisture
in place across the lower troposphere with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft owing to the nearby low. As such scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms are anticipated, with the
greatest afternoon/evening coverage expected for the northern
Everglades and the Gulf Coast given the prevailing southeasterly
steering flow. Given decently steep lapse rates and increased warm
cloud depths gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall should be the
primary thunderstorm related hazards. Temperatures should be near
to perhaps a touch below seasonal averages given decent cloud
cover throughout the period.

Saturday through Monday...

Heights should gradually rise aloft across the western Atlantic as
residual upper troughing weakens across the southern Bahamas. This
will allow the western portion of the low level Atlantic ridge to
further impinge on our area as a modest easterly wind regime
persists. This will keep decent low level moisture in place with
temperatures aloft warming somewhat. As such primarily sea breeze
driven shower and storm development is expected, with some decrease
in storm strength and coverage possible. That said, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are expected with any stronger storms. With
some decrease in mid to upper cloud cover near average temperatures
are anticipated.

MARINE...

An upper level low over the region will allow for scattered to
numerous shower/thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.
East/southeast flow may increase to near cautionary levels by the
middle of the week. While seas are forecast to remain below advisory
levels, winds and seas may be locally enhanced near any storms.
Waterspouts are possible across all local waters in this
environment.

BEACHES...

Modest easterly flow will allow for the risk of rip currents to
gradually increase through the week. This will lead to an enhanced
rip current risk for today. The continuation of easterly flow may
necessitate rip current statements as the week progresses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  87  76  86 /  40  60  50  60
West Kendall     74  88  75  88 /  40  60  50  60
Opa-Locka        74  87  75  87 /  40  60  50  60
Homestead        74  86  75  86 /  50  60  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  76  86  76  86 /  50  60  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  75  85 /  50  60  50  60
Pembroke Pines   74  87  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
West Palm Beach  74  85  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
Boca Raton       75  86  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
Naples           71  90  72  88 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation...RAG

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
349 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
012000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
349 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

...Scattered Thunderstorms Mainly over Southwest Florida...
...Enhanced Rip Current Risk for Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly
over the western half of the region. The primary hazards will be
frequent lightning and localized flooding.

Rip Currents: Easterly flow will allow for enhanced rip current
conditions to evolve today across the Atlantic beaches.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across all local waters.

Wind: Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible over the western
half of South Florida.

Visibility: Smoke from ongoing wildfires over interior Palm Beach
County, interior Miami-Dade County, and interior Collier County could
affect visibility across portions of the region today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thunderstorm chances will continue through the work week. Some of
the thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and localized
flooding.

The threat of rip currents will increase for the middle of the week
along the east coast beaches of South Florida as easterly winds
continue over the Atlantic waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however,
individual spotters are encouraged to report high winds, flooding,
and hail to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N 80.10W
06/01/2021  M39 MPH          AMZ651             FL   BUOY

            THE NDBC BUOY MESONET STATION FWYF1, LOCATED
            AT FOWEY ROCKS, MEASURED A CONVECTIVE WIND
            GUST OF 39 MPH (34 KT) ASSOCIATED WITH A
            PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

FELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
823 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     WATER SPOUT      51 ESE LIGHTHOUSE POINT 26.02N 79.32W
06/01/2021                   AMZ671             FL   SHIP

            CRUISE SHIP TRAVELING ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
            TO MIAMI SHARED A PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
            OF A WATERSPOUT FORMING FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

FELL