Tornado in Florida, December 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1248 AM EST Wed Dec 8 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

Fog continues to spread over the CWA with visibilities bouncing
between less than a quarter mile to 2.5 miles in SE AL, portions
of SW GA, and the Panhandle. Some areas like VLD have yet to
report reduced vsbys but that will likely come in the next few
hours. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to prevail, with VLIFR
possible through mid morning. A front should mix conditions out by
mid to late morning, which should improve vsbys drastically and
raise ceilings to MVFR status. After that, we'll need to watch for
another night of foggy conditions and or low ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [811 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

A stationary front is lingering across the forecast area this
afternoon and as several weak disturbances traverse the frontal
boundary this afternoon and overnight, expect periods of light
rain to move through. A stronger wave is expected to move through
Wednesday afternoon which will help bring a brief reprieve to the
widespread dense fog for Wednesday night as it pushes the front
east of the area.

Before that last wave gives us a break from the fog, we'll have to
go through another night of potentially dense fog across the
forecast area tonight, especially in our marine and coastal zones
across the FL Panhandle. A dense fog advisory can't be ruled out
for tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Zonal flow in the upper levels develops for the short term period
while the flow in the lower levels becomes southerly ahead of the
next weather system this weekend. With southerly flow
redeveloping, expect warm conditions for Thursday with highs in
the mid 70s. With moisture moving back in, fog can't be ruled out
early Thursday morning, but expect coverage to be less than what
we've seen in the early part of this week.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Main feature we're watching in the long term period will be a
strong cold front over the upcoming weekend. Strong southerly flow
in advance of this feature will provide plenty of moisture for
showers and storms while strong lift associated with an upper
level trough, and increased shear, do support a severe weather
threat with this cold front.

Cooler conditions are expected for the beginning of the upcoming
week as high pressure settles in much drier conditions finally
move in.

.MARINE...

The primary concern through Wednesday across our marine zones will
be areas of sea fog. The greatest potential for fog will be across
our eastern waters of the Apalachee Bay, but fog in our other
marine zones can't be ruled out. Winds and seas will remain
elevated through the upcoming week. Cautionary conditions are
likely by weeks end and southerly flow ahead of our next front
develops. Advisory level conditions are possible for the upcoming
weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A stationary front will remain in place across the region through
early Wednesday until it's displaced east of the region Wednesday
afternoon. Fire weather concerns remain low through the period
with humid conditions in place. Widespread fog is expected tonight
and it could be locally dense in spots.

.HYDROLOGY...

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rises on area
rivers are possible during the second half of this week, thanks to
a some rain that will pass across Alabama and Georgia on
Wednesday and again around Saturday night. However, dry weather
over the past month means rivers are running near base flow.
Rivers have the capacity to handle the expected one-half to one
inch of rain over Alabama and Georgia without risk of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  54  74  60  78 /  80   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  56  74  63  77 /  70   0  10  30  10
Dothan        68  48  70  60  79 /  70   0  10  30  20
Albany        70  46  70  58  79 /  80   0   0  30  20
Valdosta      75  52  72  57  80 /  80   0   0  10  10
Cross City    76  59  76  59  80 /  60   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  74  57  73  62  76 /  80   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Brooks-
     Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs