On October 12th, a strong low pressure system was moving across the western United States. A strong upper level disturbance moved across the Rockies and High Plains producing up to 62 mph gusts in Kit Carson County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
On October 12th, a strong low pressure system was moving across the western United States. A strong upper level disturbance moved across the Rockies and High Plains producing up to 62 mph gusts in Kit Carson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 10:39 AM MST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1139 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 430 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Today-tonight...at 500mb there is great agreement amongst the GFS/NAM/Canadian/ECWMF and GEFS in lifting a deep 542mb upper low currently over south central Utah this morning northeast into north central Colorado through the day then toward north central Nebraska during the night. At the surface, a 992mb low is expected to be near the northeast corner of Colorado at the end of the day, remaining steady around 992mb overnight near the vertically stacked upper low near the SD/NE border. Strong south to southeast winds winds are expected during the late morning through mid afternoon hours gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range, highest along and west of the CO/KS border. Per coordination with surrounding offices we've issued a High Wind Warning for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado, Sherman and Wallace counties in Kansas. Winds slowly veer to the southwest through midnight then west and northwest after midnight with gusts up to 35 mph or so, mainly along the KS/NE border. Regarding the threat for blowing dust...the threat remains with the question being how much if any impact there will be. The GFS has remained consistent for the past week or so with a key wind speed of around 45 to 50kts in the 0.5-1km layer nosing into a narrow area extending from Dundy county Nebraska southwest through our far eastern Colorado counties around 21z. Surface winds sustained around 33kts or higher are also forecast from Goodland to Flagler and points southwest into Cheyenne county Colorado in the 18z-21z timeframe. 0-2km lapse rates remain steep, over 10C/KM. So from our local ongoing research into high impact blowing dust/dust storm events these 3 items can be checked off the list. The only parameter that remains in question is will the lapse rates at 2-2.5km be unstable or stable, basically keeping any dust confined to the near surface or will it be allowed to escape into the atmosphere with no cap to confine it. The latest GFS suggests lapse rates around 8- 9C/KM move in from the southwest by 21z. The 06z HRRR has lapse rates in the 2-2.5km layer around 6-7C/KM which is better for an organized threat (county or multiple county wide blowing dust/dust storm). The ECMWF and NAM arent too far off compared to the HRRR. So the bottom line is there is enough of a blowing dust threat to include it in the forecast with low confidence that an impactful blowing dust event will occur. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado, mid 30s to mid 40s east of the CO/KS border. Frost is not expected given the expected winds. Regarding precipitation potential, the first chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms arrives mid morning from Benkelman to Oakley east as a weather disturbance moves in from New Mexico, exiting early this afternoon. There should be enough forcing per upper level jet and modestly unstable lapse rates for some rainfall to occur. The next chance arrives generally along and west of the CO/KS border around 20z/21z as the deep upper low moves toward the Denver metro area. Strong forcing exists along the dryline to produce strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. During the early to mid evening hours convection will quickly become linear as upper jet divergence increases and low level jet strengthens. Around or shortly after midnight convection should be east of the area with a clearing sky. Wednesday-Wednesday night...dry conditions are expected. Northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph or so are possible along the Kansas Nebraska border in the morning before decreasing some in the afternoon as the storm system moves further away from the area. A steady north to northeast wind of up to 10 mph is expected during the night. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 60s. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s with frost and freeze conditions possible. Thursday-Thursday night...another weather system makes its way into the area during the afternoon with the emphasis of any precipitation during the night as the system (within the base of an upper trough) moves through. Moisture availability is enough (mainly above 700mb) to support some slight chance to likely pops across the southwestern 2/3 of the area. Daytime temperatures cool down into the low 50s to mid 60s. With expected overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s rain showers and snow showers are expected. The snow would be confined to areas along and west of the Colorado Kansas border at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The main concerns in the extended forecast are below normal temperatures and a chance for some frost. The forecast period begins with a trough over the central plains with the trough axis located to the southwest of the Tri-State area. The trough is expected to move from west to east-southeast through the day. Friday will be the coolest day in the extended forecast with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 20s are expected across eastern Colorado Friday night/Saturday morning, with areas along and west of a line from Norton to Russell Springs to Leoti expected to fall below freezing. Frost is expected to be a concern Saturday morning across the region. Saturday, the Tri-State area comes under northwest flow aloft as a ridge amplifies to the west. Through the weekend, the ridge will push east, moving across the High Plains and Central High Plains. We begin a gradual warming trend on Saturday which will continue through Monday. Saturday highs return to the 60s with widespread 70s expected on Sunday and Monday. Lows each morning are expected to be primarily in the 30s. With mainly clear skies and winds fairly light, frost will be a concern each morning. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 VFR conditions are expected to start off the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK terminals. Strong southerly winds will persist through the afternoon hours, gusting up to 40-50 knots or so. Attention then turns towards the threat of thunderstorms. Storms are anticipated to develop along the Colorado border around 21-22Z and increase in coverage as they shift east through the evening. Both terminals are expected to be impacted by lowered visibilities and ceilings (sub-VFR). It is also worth noting the potential for severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. Storm activity shifts east of the region in the late evening, with VFR conditions returning. Beyond this, winds shift to the northwest Wednesday morning and increase with gusts around 25 knots. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027. CO...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ091-092. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...JBH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 1150 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131800- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 1150 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 /1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A High Wind Warning is in effect today for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado, Sherman and Wallace counties in Kansas. South winds gusting up to 60 mph are expected along with some patchy blowing dust which may cause reduced visibilities and poor air quality. Elsewhere, wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected. There is a Slight and Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along and east of a line from Yuma, Colorado to Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail up to two inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. It is important to note the tornado threat will exist into the evening, potentially making them difficult to see. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado through the afternoon. Frost is possible around sunrise Wednesday morning across parts of far eastern Colorado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected along and west of the Colorado Kansas border Wednesday afternoon. Areas of frost are possible Wednesday night along and north of Interstate 70. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions return Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, generally along and west of Highway 27. Freezing and sub freezing temperatures are expected across nearly the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning and again Saturday night through Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening. Please send any reports for blowing dust or severe weather to the National Weather Service in Goodland.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 1002 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079-122015- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Wallace- Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy- Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, Burlington, Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, Bird City, Atwood, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Tribune, Leoti, and Benkelman 1002 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 /1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021/ ...Blowing Dust Developing Across Area... Small areas of blowing dust are developing as southerly winds increase to 30 to 40 mph. Expect dust along north to south oriented dirt roads and near open fields. Coverage is expected to be limited at this time, with lowest visibilities confirmed to the vicinity of the dust source. Be cautious if approaching an area of blowing dust and be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities. JRM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1053 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 NNE GOODLAND 39.37N 101.70W
10/12/2021 M43 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS
ASOS STATION KGLD GOODLAND. VISIBILITY 8SM
DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT TUE OCT 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1104 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE GOODLAND 39.37N 101.70W
10/12/2021 M60 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS
ASOS STATION KGLD GOODLAND. G52 KTS.
VISIBILITY 8SM DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1216 PM MDT TUE OCT 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N COLBY 39.43N 101.05W
10/12/2021 M51 MPH THOMAS KS AWOS
SUSTAINED AT 35 MPH.
&&
JNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1218 PM MDT TUE OCT 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S BURLINGTON 39.24N 102.28W
10/12/2021 M51 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS
PEAK WIND GUST ON HOURLY.
&&
JNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong south-southeasterly winds produced a 62 mph gust that was recorded via Weather Underground station KCOVONA4.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 990148.