Snow, heavy at times, occurred across the central and southwest mountains on this day while damaging winds along with high fire danger was noted across much of the plains and San Luis Valley. Highest wind gusts were up to around 60 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Snow, heavy at times, occurred across the central and southwest mountains on this day while damaging winds along with high fire danger was noted across much of the plains and San Luis Valley. Highest wind gusts were up to around 60 mph. A few thunderstorms also occurred, mainly over the far eastern plains, though there was not any damage observed from these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 6:41 AM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 741 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 737 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Main update here early this morning was to add the San Luis Valley to the High Wind Warning which is in effect through 8 PM this evening. The previously mentioned concerns for stronger winds/gusts across the San Luis Valley have continued to grow here recently as observations across the general area are already showing these increases in speeds as well as latest guidance indicating a higher likelihood for gusts up to around 60 mph. Additionally, these gusts are appearing to last longer, quite possibly well into the mid to late afternoon. Given these trends, felt fairly confident with adding the SLV to the current High Wind Warning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 447 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges: 1) Snow, heavy at times, across the central and southwest mountains today through early evening, with the highest amounts expected across the Eastern San Juan Mountains. No changes made to current winter headlines. 2) Increasing possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms over the far eastern plains, along and east of a line from Eads to Springfield, late this afternoon into mid evening. Damaging winds would be the main hazard with severe storms, though isolated large hail is also possible. 3) Damaging winds expected today along with high fire danger across much of the plains. Highest gusts up to 60 mph and lowest RH values of 15 percent, though a few higher gusts along with pockets of lower RH values are possible this afternoon. High Wind Warning expanded to include remaining areas of the plains. 4) Additional possible hazards later tonight, though with lower confidence: possible need to extend the High Wind Warning longer into tonight for locations lee of the mountains into parts of the I- 25 corridor, and at or just below freezing temps across the plains tonight. Latest water vapor imagery depicting the approaching upper level low just to the southwest of the area early this morning, with associated precip wrapping around it and lifting north into western CO. While the bulk of any precip has stayed just to the west of the CWA for much of the night, do anticipate this to quickly change here in the near term. As the main vort lobe pivots overhead, would anticipate mountain level winds to shift more to the southwest, with ascent/focus and moisture quickly increasing along with snow development. This setup still favoring a period of moderate to at times heavy snow especially this morning across the southwest mountains, Eastern San Juans, where highest totals are still expected today. No changes to current headlines or even expected snow amounts, with a Winter Storm Warning still in effect for the eastern San Juans where up to around 12 inches of snow is expected. Additionally, a Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for the La Garitas where a brief window of heavier snow is expected to bring up to around 8 inches of snow. The snow may last slightly longer for both locations this evening, but at this time, was not enough of a big change to warrant an extension of the headlines. Snow expected over much of the higher terrain today into this evening, but expected snow amounts still look to be on the lower side. Also, expect a period when some precip will spill into the mountain valleys today, though this looks to be limited with the highest chances for this occurring expected during the morning time frame. Chances for precip still look to be on the low side over most of the plains today. Some guidance is showing some slight development moving off the Pikes Peak region by late morning/midday, though conditions still look to be really dry. So, would expect any development to not make it to the surface. Continue to monitor the potential for precip development over the far eastern plains later this afternoon into the evening, in particular, possible strong to severe storms. While the highest threat for more widespread severe weather looks to be just to the east in Kansas, early morning trends have continued with previous trends with increasing chances for this threat of severe storms reaching far eastern Colorado. Lee troughing ahead of strong height falls and mid/upper level flow is appearing to not only provide strong focus for development across eastern CO, but strong southeast winds on the eastern side of this trough. If this occurs, which is appearing more probable, will see moisture axis and higher instability push into portions of far eastern CO. Even with small amounts of instability, the strong ascent and focus along with a highly sheared environment is concerning. With this added instability, damaging wind gusts and large hail would both be possible. At this time, highest confidence for severe storms would be in the 3 to 8 pm time frame right along the CO/KS border. However, the window for some stronger development capable of producing strong wind gusts would be in the 2 to 9 mp for locations along and east of a line from Eads to Springfield. Damaging winds up to 60 mph are still expected today into this evening, and given trends, the main update this morning with regards to this hazard was to expand the High Wind Warning to remaining areas across the plains. While the stronger winds/gusts may not start here early this morning, already noting increasing wind field across far southern CO that is expected to quickly lift northeast across remaining areas this morning. Do have some concerns for a small window of stronger winds and gusts approaching 50 mph, maybe around 55 mph, across the SLV this morning and did debate adding them into the High Wind Warning. At this time, think the duration will be small, with only a few stronger gusts expected. Will continue to closely monitor for a longer duration as well as the possibility for slightly stronger gusts. As this wind field translates northeast later this morning, expect any stronger winds across the SLV to diminish. Deep lee trough, winds around 50kt aloft, and strong mixing will allow south to southwest wind gusts up to 60 mph to develop later this morning into the afternoon over the plains. Most guidance overnight was showing stronger sustained speeds and flow aloft over the El Paso county and areas to the east later this afternoon and given this seems to be reasonable, felt confident to include them in the Warning. Winds should diminish by early evening with a lull in the winds expected before they ramp back up later tonight. Did increase winds/gusts tonight but do have some concerns that stronger winds/gusts will return for locations lee of the mountains into parts of the I-25 corridor. So, the day shift will need to monitor trends and the possibility of extending the High Wind warning in this location. Guidance still in strong agreement with deep mixing this afternoon, and with some rather dry air aloft and reaching the surface. This mixing looks to really ramp up by mid afternoon and still expect to see a quick lowering of dewpoints/RH values from west to east across the plains through the afternoon hours. This will reach a wall closer to the CO/KS border though, where the higher dewpoint axis will try remain in place. Lowest RH values approaching 15 percent are appearing likely along and just to the east of the I-25 corridor, with slightly higher RH values further to the east. Still think there is potential for at least pockets of RH values of 10-15 percent, though not quite confident of placement or duration. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 447 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Wednesday...The upper low pressure system is forecast to be located over western Nebraska Wed morning, and will continue pushing to the northeast across the Dakotas through the day. Relatively flat zonal flow aloft will then settle in across Colorado, providing for a dry and somewhat cool day with less wind expected. There will likely be some spotty critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains during the aftn, but at this time no highlight is anticipated. Look for high temps in the 60s to right around 70F across the plains, which is near seasonal norms. Across the high valleys, temps will be cooler with readings in the 50s. Thursday and Friday...Another upper trough of low pressure will cross the Rockies both Thu and Fri, bringing some moisture along with another reinforcing blast of cooler air. The best chance for some precipitation will be Thu, with the mts likely seeing some more snow and even the plains may see some showers. Activity will then taper off through Fri morning. A cold front pushes in Thu morning, then another surge of cooler air pushes in for Fri, so plan on high temps in the 40s to lower 50s both days for the high valleys. Across the plains, maximum temps will warm into the 50s to lower 60s on Thu, then only into the upper 40s to upper 50s for Fri. Saturday through Monday...High pressure will build back into the region over the weekend, making for dry and warmer conditions. Highs each day will climb into the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s for the plains. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 447 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Vigorous upper low pressure system will track across the Four Corners this morning, and eject to the northeast across Colorado through the day. This system will produce moderate to heavy snow along with strong sw winds across much of the higher terrain, and especially across the southwest mts and the Continental Divide. It will also bring pcpn to the high valleys, and strong southwest winds gusting in excess of 50 kts at times across the eastern plains. For the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS: KALS - VFR with lowering cigs through the day, as well as showers probable. S-SW winds gusting to 35-40 kts through the late morning and aftn until 01z. KCOS and KPUB - VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. There may be a rain shower or two during the aftn, but nothing enough to warrant mention at this time in the TAF. SW winds gusting up to 45-50 kts will be possible by late morning and through the aftn until around 02z. Moore && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ084-085-089- 095-096. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-226>235. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071- 086>088-093-094-097>099. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ066. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ068. && UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOORE
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 850 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 COZ058>089-093>099-131500- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 850 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A strong storm system will move across the region on today, bringing multiple weather hazards to the region. The risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is increasing over the far eastern plains of southern Colorado. By mid afternoon, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of a line from Eads to Springfield, capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts. As this activity spreads northeastward to eastward toward the Colorado-Kansas border through this evening, it will have the potential to intensify further. For locations east of a line from Chivington to Lamar to Vilas, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail to 2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds to 70 mph will be possible. The most likely time frame for the most intense storms will be 5PM to 9PM MDT, with this activity subsequently spreading into Kansas thereafter. Storms today across the far eastern plains have the potential to be significant, so please be sure to have multiple ways of receiving important information from the National Weather Service in Pueblo. Mountain snows will continue over the eastern San Juan and La Garita Mountains today. Heavy snowfall accumulations upwards of 12 inches are expected over the eastern San Juan Mountains, and upwards of 8 inches over the La Garita Mountains. Locally higher amounts will also be possible. Blowing and drifting of snow will be possible, reducing visibilities. Snow will lessen in coverage and intensity by this evening. Widespread south to southwest wind gusts to 60 mph are expected, with locally even stronger wind gusts possible especially over the higher terrain. The strong winds will also be capable of producing blowing dust over the plains reducing visibilities. A significant fire weather risk will develop over most of the plains this afternoon, as the strong winds combine with low relative humidity. There will also be the potential for lightning induced wildfire ignitions over the far eastern plains this afternoon. Temperatures at or just below freezing are possible across parts of the plains tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Widespread below-freezing temperatures will be possible for overnight lows for Friday morning, Saturday morning and perhaps Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet spotter criteria will be possible across the eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains today, and across the far eastern plains late this afternoon into the evening. COHEN/RODRIGUEZ/27
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large elm tree uprooted.
Alamosa airport.
Trinidad airport.
Raton Pass.
Colorado City.
Red Creek.
Air Force Academy.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991039, 991031, 991032, 991037, 991033, 991035, 991036, 991034, 991038.