A strong upper level system moved across the region during this period, producing a period of heavy snow across the eastern mountains and far southern CO, especially the southern I-25 corridor. Along with the heavy snow, strong winds occurred and supported blizzard conditions near the Colorado and New Mexico border.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
A strong upper level system moved across the region during this period, producing a period of heavy snow across the eastern mountains and far southern CO, especially the southern I-25 corridor. Along with the heavy snow, strong winds occurred and supported blizzard conditions near the Colorado and New Mexico border. Highest snow amounts approached one foot across far southern Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 11:04 PM MST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1204 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Due to the latest model trends showing more confidence with high snow totals over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, as well as the Wet Mountains and Raton Mesa, the Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for these areas. There will be higher snow totals also for the southern Arkansas River Valley due to upslope enhancement, therefore Winter Weather Advisories have also been added to include Fremont, Pueblo, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties. The Winter Storm Watch has remained in place for Baca County. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Shortwave ridging over the area today will translate eastward as the next upper low moves into central New Mexico on Tuesday. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be a transition period across southern Colorado. Skies will be relatively clear, except for some scattered high clouds spreading in late in the period. With the snow cover temperatures will cool quickly after sundown and did not stray far from guidance/model blends. Some isolated snow showers will be possible along the Continental Divide overnight, but accumulations will be spotty and light. As the upper low advances eastward into eastern AZ by mid day we will start to see snow spread into the Continental Divide and southwest mountains through the morning as area of difluence aloft moves overhead. Precipitation then expands eastward into the Sangre De Cristo mountains and southern I-25 corridor as the surface low deepens over NE NW in response. Mid level winds increase to around 20 kts from the east which is a good upslope component for the southeast mountains and there will likely be some spill over into the San Luis Valley late in the period. As for precipitation type, temperatures will be warm starting out with mainly rain across the lower elevations along and east of the I-25 corridor. Focus through the afternoon will be mainly south of highway 50 with some question as to the northern extent as some models are a tad farther south than others with the more compact upper low. Started Winter Storm Watches at 18z for now with mountain areas likely to start sooner. Lower elevations may not see a switch over to snow along the I-25 corridor until closer to 00z Wed so timing will need to be refined as the event gets closer. Overall looks like a compact fast moving storm with main impacts in the medium ranges. See discussion below. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Overall, there is decent agreement through the work week, with differences in the operational solutions and ensemble spreads increase. The southern portion of the state will be impacted by a storm system through Wednesday, clearing for the later part of the week. Another storm system will be possible next weekend. Tuesday night through Wednesday...a compact, intense upper low is forecast to move across central New Mexico, and eject into the Texas Panhandle Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A deep layer of easterly, upslope flow is forecast to develop Tuesday evening over the southern half of the Eastern Plains and peak through the overnight hours. This will lead to a period of heavy snow, initially along the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, and spread east along the New Mexico border over Las Animas and Baca Counties through Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Eastern Mountains and New Mexico border region. Snow will be heaviest over the southern Sangre de Cristo Range, into the Raton Mesa area. One to 2 feet of snow are possible from Tuesday night, through Wednesday early afternoon. East of Las Animas and Baca Counties, snowfall totals will be dependent on change over from rain to snow. Current model sounding analysis indicates a change over to snow around 9 PM Tuesday. This area will likely see at least 4 to 8 inches of wet snow. In addition to the snow, strong winds are expected by Wednesday morning behind a cold front. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible, which will likely produce blowing snow and reduced visibilities, especially along Highway 160. The areas of most uncertainty, will be the San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley and Fremont County. Given the deep upslope flow, the potential exists for several hours heavier snowfall along the western edge of the Valley. Central Fremont County may end up doing pretty well too, given the deep upslope flow expected. These areas will likely see 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed as confidence grows. For the rest of the Plains, snow will also be possible. Snowfall amounts of less than 3 inches are expected. The main issue will be the strong winds, with gusts near 40 mph possible. On Thursday and Friday, an upper level ridge will build over the area bringing warm, dry, and relatively sunny conditions to the whole CWA. Over the lower elevations, expecting temps to be in the lower to upper 50s both days. Over higher elevations, temps should stay much colder in the 20s. Saturday into Monday...both the GFS and ECMWF have an upper trough impacting southern Colorado over the weekend. Details are a bit fuzzy at this point in regards to timing and storm track. The GFS is progressive and faster, while the ECMWF is slower and less deep. Mountain snow will definitely be likely, but whether it will spread across the Plains remains in question. If precipitation does make it into the Plains, Sunday into Monday look like the most likely time period. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1143 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 For KALS...VFR conditions should prevail for the first 7 hours of the TAF forecast period, then there will be a chance of some low CIGs and VIS moving into the area with even some patchy fog possible from 11Z to 15Z. This should break afterwards and VFR conditions will once again prevail until the approaching low pressure system begins to impact the area with increasing low CIGs and -SN moving in after 19Z. There could be a period of moderate snowfall as well as the low moves to the south and allows for more convective snow showers to move out off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the east...with LIFR conditions likely after 03Z. Winds will be strong and gusty out of the southeast initially, until the low passes to the south and winds switch around to the northeast. Due to this, expect light to moderate turbulence in and around the vicinity. CIGs and VIS will only slightly improve towards the end of the forecast period but there will still be snow showers possible with could temporarily reduce VIS again to LIFR conditions, otherwise expect MVFR conditions after 03Z. For KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the first 16 to 17 hours or so for both locations until the low pressure system begins to move closer and produce -RASN initially, changing over to -SN after 01Z, for KPUB, and -SN after 23Z for KCOS. There could also be some brief periods of more moderate to heavier snow in more convective showers as well, and reduced VIS and CIGs filling in throughout the rest of the forecast period. Winds will also be another issue, becoming very strong and gusty out of the northeast to northerly direction after about 17Z for KCOS and 19Z for KPUB. This could produce some blizzard like conditions after 23Z and there will more than likely be moderate turbulence in the vicinity of both TAF sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for COZ088-094. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ072>075-078>080-087. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for COZ086-093-097-098. Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ099. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ076-077-083. && UPDATE...STEWARD SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOZLEY/SIMCOE AVIATION...STEWARD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 336 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 COZ058>089-093>099-162145- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 336 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated light snow showers will be possible along the Continental Divide through tonight. Accumulations will be spotty and light and generally under 1 inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Another storm system will impact southern Colorado Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Greatest impacts with this storm is expected to be south of highway 50. Snow will spread into the region Tuesday afternoon and become heavy at times Tuesday night through early Wednesday. North to northeast winds will increase Tuesday night with gusts to around 50 mph expected. This will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow across the Raton Ridge and adjacent plains and travel may become difficult to impossible over the southern I-25 corridor and over La Veta Pass. Snowfall totals of 10 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible across the Sangre De Cristo and Wet mountains with the heaviest snow falling across the southern most areas. The adjacent southern I-25 corridor and southern plains along with the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains could see 3 to 9 inches. Lighter amounts of 1 to 4 inches will be possible north of highway 50 for the remainder of the plains and central mountains. Another storm system may bring another chance of rain and snow to southern Colorado Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters will not be needed tonight. 31/31
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0708 AM SNOW PALMER LAKE 39.12N 104.91W
03/15/2021 M28.0 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy snow of 5.5 inches. 2 miles west southwest Nathrop.
Heavy snow of 12.0 inches. 2 miles south southwest Trinidad. Estimated snowfall due to strong winds creating blowing and drifting snow.
Heavy snow of 8.2 inches. 6 miles south southwest La Veta Pass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952500, 952495, 952497.