A stalled front, combined with a warm and moist airmass, led to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With high atmospheric moisture present, flash flooding occurred across portions of south and central Mississippi.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A stalled front, combined with a warm and moist airmass, led to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With high atmospheric moisture present, flash flooding occurred across portions of south and central Mississippi. As daytime heating occurred, some storms were able to become severe which resulted in damaging winds and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 5:37 AM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 637 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: Mostly VFR over the region, a few MVFR/IFR. Showers/vcts in the south impacting HBG/PIB...as well as MEI as another line of convection sets up. Also see some more popping up over the NW, impacting GLH/GWO. Unsettled weather across the region today keeping vcts in almost the entire period. Have tried to limit where possible, but models persist on constant off and on TS in a broad area of ascent. Conditions will continue to deteriorate going into the early morning hours tomorrow as the next front moves in from the west. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight... Unsettled weather continues across the southeastern CONUS this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the northern tier of the FA, as well as a broader area of precip and thunder in the southeast. Dual pol storm total estimates in excess of 2-3 inches of rain have fallen in portion of Clarke County in the overnight hours. Those totals are pushing the boundary of FFG in that region, and have also led to the inclusion of that area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for today and tonight from WPCs ERO. Will be adding a ltd graphic for flooding concerns to add to the messaging. Deep southwesterly flow aloft, southerly flow at the surface, and a broad area of general ascent will keep showers and thunderstorms scattered across the region through today and tonight. With plenty of warmth and moisture and little to no inhibition, the entire area falls in a marginal risk for severe weather for today/tonight. SBCAPE values vary in soundings from 1000-2000 J/kg, and low level lapse rates are moderate. However, mid level lapse rates are less impressive, and shear is on the low end overall...storms may have a hard time sustaining themselves unless they can tap into pockets of higher instability with breaks in cloud cover and/or access more of the stronger winds aloft. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and cannot rule out tornadic threat...all are a concern through the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday through Tuesday. Not planning to make any changes to the long term forecast. Focus remains on the storm system for Wednesday. The models are in good agreement on the track of the low and line/boundary sweeping across the region. The NAM was a little slower than the earlier run of the GFS/Euro, but the latest GFS run slows down similar to the NAM. Thursday through Monday remain dry but cooler. Another system moves in next Tuesday, but the best dynamics in the latest runs move the surface low to the north. Looks like the end of the boundary moves through, but pressure doesn't seem to fall very much this far south. The system around Thursday looks pretty good. The upper trough digs pretty far south, so expecting to see warmer temperatures for the end of next week and a return to moist conditions. There is a small question on the timing, but generally maintaining the previous forecast for Wednesday. The NAM shows a break in the rain late morning into early Wednesday afternoon, giving the area a few hours to bake. There will be a good southerly breeze across the region, bringing near 70 dewpoints. Lapse rates were good with low level values around 8-9 c/km and upper level values around 7 c/km. Forecast soundings also show good speed shear with low LCL heights and some near surface based CAPE values approaching 2000J. Soundings in the Delta early on also had some of the higher instability values but helicity values were much greater for areas to the northeast/east going into the early evening. All modes of severe are still likely with widespread impacts mainly late Wednesday afternoon through the evening. The line of storms should be east of the area by midnight, but rain seems to linger through early Thursday morning. Maintained severe wording in the forecast. With good moisture flow, heavy rain will also be possible, but opted not to add heavy rain wording to the zones at this time. The cooler air settles in quickly for the rest week, with temperatures closer to normal. May get down to near 40 in a few places Friday morning, much cooler than the previous days. Otherwise, it should be pleasant going into the weekend. With high pressure nearby, it's shaping up to be a nice weekend. Things warm back up early next week with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 78 65 81 50 / 74 54 92 77 Meridian 77 64 79 52 / 81 60 88 93 Vicksburg 80 66 81 50 / 57 53 93 67 Hattiesburg 79 65 80 53 / 78 31 90 89 Natchez 78 67 80 49 / 74 31 93 67 Greenville 77 65 76 50 / 24 76 96 58 Greenwood 77 64 79 50 / 38 74 95 77 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && HJS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 505 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>045-047>050- 053>055-059>063-072-171015- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams- Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Marion- 505 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Severe storms are likely for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi Wednesday through Wednesday night. These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail up to golf ball size and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could strong. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Wednesday night. MSZ046-051-052-056>058-064>066-073-074-171015- Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson Davis- Covington-Jones-Lamar-Forrest- 505 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Severe storms are likely for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi Wednesday through Wednesday night. These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail up to golf ball size and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could strong. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Wednesday night. 20 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely. Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible. Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely. Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:45 UTC.
5 flash flood, 2 hail, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Water flowed across County Road 280. A car was stranded in the flood waters.
Water was across County Road 511 and 621.
Water was over Highway 37 in northern Covington County.
Water was across some of the roads in Stringer.
Flash flooding occurred around Taylorsville. Approximately a foot of water was across the roadway at the intersection of Pine and Front Streets. Part of County Road 21 was also underwater.
A severe thunderstorm produced a swath of large hail across portions of central Copiah County. Ping pong ball size hail fell along Highway 28 to the southwest of Hazlehurst. Quarter to golfball size hail fell in and just south of Hazlehurst, with the largest falling on I-55. Two inch hail fell along Highway 472 just before Ashley Road to the east of Hazlehurst.
This brief tornado started at Martinsville Road and tracked east northeast for just over a mile. It also moved along a portion of Ryan Road. Damage was mainly snapped trees, uprooted trees and many limbs broken. Some power lines were down as well. High resolution satellite imagery showed additional tree damage occurring to the east of these points, to the north of Ryan Road and west of Deason Road. The tornado is believed to have lifted before reaching Deason Road. The maximum estimated winds were 100 mph.
A swath of hail fell across and just to the north of Kosciusko. Hail covered the ground in Kosciusko, with stones ranging from dime to quarter size. Golf ball hail fell on the north side of Kosciusko off of Highway 43.
This brief EF0 tornado touched down off DK Mansfield at Tip Buckley Road. A few trees were damaged with some minor tin roof damage to a home and barn. The tornado moved east into a field were a few more trees were downed and then the tornado dissipated. Max|winds were 75 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Mississippi, 2021Warnings in Mississippi, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 951034, 951036, 951058, 951061, 951065, 951090, 951088, 951091, 951089.