Rip Current in Florida, March 16, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
229 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

A marginal risk of severe weather remains in place for this
afternoon and early evening across our northern counties given
modest deep layer shear, fairly steep mid level lapse rates,
instability, and a stalled frontal boundary near the area. Main
threats are gusty winds and hail with any storms that develop this
afternoon, although a very low risk of a tornado near the boundary
also exists. The greater severe risk is expected to arrive late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Convection is expected to weaken this
evening with the loss of daytime heating and lack of significant
forcing. Areas of fog may also develop overnight. Lows are generally
expected to be in the 60s.

For Wednesday, a stationary boundary along our northern counties is
expected to lift northward as a warm front as southerly flow
increases ahead of the approaching strong upper trough. While there
is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across
the northern and western portions of the area closest to the lifting
warm front and approaching upper trough, the greatest forcing and
threat for severe weather is expected to hold off until late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the 80s
after areas of fog lift during the morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Confidence continues to increase that there will be a severe
weather event during this period, perhaps a significant one. For
now, SPC has our AL and GA counties in an enhanced risk area
(level 3 out of 5) for severe storms with most of our FL zones in
a slight risk (level 2). Unlike most of our winter severe events,
we should have plenty of instability this go around to go along
with a high shear environment. All three modes of severe weather
are possible, including damaging straight-line winds of 70 mph or
greater, large hail, and tornadoes some possibly significant
(EF2+). Our best timing estimates bring a squall line into most of
our central time zone counties Wednesday night after 2 AM CDT.
Areas further east will see severe weather advance eastward
through the daylight hours with the severe threat ending along and
east of I-75 in the mid to late afternoon Thursday. It will
remain unseasonably warm and humid ahead of the cold front which
will cross the area late Thursday into Thursday night. This front
will usher in drier and cooler weather.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

This period should be dry and noticeably cooler. Highs will be in
the 60s in most areas from Friday through the weekend with some
areas in Southwest GA failing to reach 60 on Saturday. Overnight low
will be in the 40 with the coolest night coming Saturday night.
Milder weather will return for the work week as temperatures rise to
above normal levels once again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail into this evening, although scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity of DHN and ABY
through early this evening. For later tonight, areas of fog and low
ceilings are expected to develop with LIFR conditions. Fog and low
ceilings are expected to lift during the mid-morning hours
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds will increase to cautionary to
marginal advisory levels from late Wednesday afternoon through much
of the weekend. A wind shift from southwest to northwest will occur
from Thursday through Thursday night with northeast winds
established by Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Suwannee River at Rock Bluff will gradually recede and drop
below flood stage sometime Wednesday. Rainfall with the next system
is not expected to be sufficient for flooding concerns as forecast
totals have come down. At this point, it doesn't not appear that
heavier rain in the upper ACF basin will be sufficient to
produce any downstream long-term flooding in our region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  81  67  80  50 /  20  10  20  80   0
Panama City   67  78  68  76  51 /  20  20  60  60   0
Dothan        65  82  67  77  47 /  20  40  70  50   0
Albany        65  82  67  80  48 /  40  40  40  80   0
Valdosta      65  84  65  81  49 /  20  10  10  90  10
Cross City    64  83  64  81  52 /  10  10   0  70  10
Apalachicola  66  75  67  76  51 /  20  10  30  80   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Wool