NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 2:46 PM MST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 2:46 PM MST, 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
246 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021
Key messages:
- Snow has begun across the Continental Divide, and will continue
through the period with increases in coverage and intensity
overnight into Friday.
- Damaging winds developing over the eastern mountains and along the
I-25 corridor this evening, and continuing through much of Friday.
Currently...breezy, but warm conditions have spread across southern
Colorado this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 60s for most
locations across the Plains. Westerly flow and embedded energy is
moving into the Continental Divide early this afternoon with a few
light echoes showing up on radar and observations indicating
mountains snowfall.
Tonight...the main concern for tonight will be high winds. There
are time periods of concern, tonight in the Pikes Peak Regions, down
into the southern I-25 corridor, then spreading into the Plains
Friday morning and afternoon. High-res models are indicating a
mountain wave set up tonight. This will occur ahead of the main
upper jet which is currently moving into western Colorado.
For the Pikes Peak Region including Teller County and areas west of
I-25 in El Paso County...this area, in the lee of the Rampart Range,
will see the potential for high winds this evening into the
overnight hours. High-res model cross sections and sounding data
indicates the set up for a mountain wave by 8 PM this evening, and
prevailing through 5 AM tonight. Wind guidance is quite high, with
gusts near 70 mph at times, especially for areas near the Air Force
Academy, down into Fort Carson. The peak winds look to occur in the
9 PM to 2 AM time frame over this area. For eastern portions of El
Paso County, winds will not be as strong, with gusts to 30 mph
possible. Those living in the lee of the Rampart Range should
prepare for damaging winds and secure holiday decorations.
For areas in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range, from Pueblo,
south to the New Mexico border...the main jet core looks to move
across this area tonight into Friday morning. Model cross sections
and atmospheric profiles are showing strong a strong mountain wave
setting up by 8 PM as the upper jet moves into the region. Strong
winds, with gusts near 80 mph, will duct down to the surface, and
will likely prevail through the morning. A few areas, especially
along I-25 from Colorado City, to near Trinidad will see the strongest
gusts.
Mountain areas seeing snow, will see blowing snow causing drifting
and low visibilities, especially over Wolf Creek, Monarch and La
Veta Passes. Down in the lower elevations, prevalent dry conditions
will lead to widespread areas of blowing dust. This blowing dust
will likely cause dangerous driving conditions on area roadways. If
traveling, be prepared for dangerous driving conditions!
Friday...the high winds will spread east during the morning hours
across the Plains. There is some uncertainty as to how far east the
strong winds will spread, with most guidance suggesting through Las
Animas and Otero Counties. Widespread gusts of 55 to 65 mph are
possible into the afternoon across the Plains. Blowing dust will
impact travelers on highways across the Plains. Strong cross winds
will make high profile and light weight vehicles prone to tipping
over. Overall, on the Plains dry conditions are expected to
prevail. The exception may be right along the eastern mountain
slopes, where enough westerly flow aloft may allow for a few
snowflakes/raindrops to spill over onto the east side. Temperatures
will remain warm, with mid to upper 60s across the Plains. Moisture
will be slightly elevated during the afternoon, which will help
humidity values remain near 20 percent. While no fire weather
highlights are anticipated, given the strong winds, outdoor burning
activities should be postponed until another day.
Over the Mountains, periods of moderate to heavy snow will continue
through the day. Orographic upslope flow along the Continental
Divide will allow for the heavy snowfall. The main focus appears to
be the San Juan Range, up int the Central Mountains. For the San
Juan Range, snowfall totals through Friday will be in the 1 to 2
foot range, while areas north see a good foot. Snowfall totals will
be higher if you include the longer term period of Friday night into
Saturday morning (see the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories for storm total snowfall). Less amounts are expected
over the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountain ranges. Mozley
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021
...Lots of snow for the Eastern San Juan Mountains...
...Potentially quite windy Sunday...
.Friday Night and Christmas...The disturbance moves east of the
region with the precipitation and winds gradually decreasing
overnight. Latest guidance suggests that the heavier snow should
end by early in the day on Christmas. Drier air moves into the
region for Christmas day, but some light snow showers will be
possible over the Continental Divide region. Otherwise, Christmas
will be a dry and mild day with highs around 60 on the plains.
.Saturday night into Sunday...Next strong disturbance moves into
the region. The vapor transport into the San Juans is no where
near as impressive as the current system. Still, grids have close
to a foot of snow for the eastern San Juan Mountains, and suspect
later shifts will be issuing winter weather highlights. The
second main effect from this system will be windy conditions. The
winds at 700mb are around 50 knots Sunday afternoon with
cyclogenesis on the eastern plains. Currently looks as if the
strongest winds will be along the eastern mountains and Interstate
25 corridor south of US 50. Populated the wind grids with the 90
percentile NBM winds as NBM 4.0 has a low wind speed bias. Wind grids
agree more closely with the NBM 4.1 which has less of a low wind
speed bias. Will have to watch for some wind highlights on Sunday
with the best chances south of US 50. With the gusty winds and low
humidities, there will be fire weather concerns and SPC has
increased the fire threat forecast for Sunday (day 4).
.Monday though Thursday...Long wave pattern has a mean trough
near the west coast. Several disturbances will move into the state
from the southwest. This pattern favors the eastern San Juans for
snowfall during this period with lesser amounts of snow for the
mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties. The heaviest snow will be
Monday and on Wednesday, with periods of lighter snow otherwise.
The EPS and GEFS are generous with QPF in the eastern San Juans
with 4 inches or more of moisture for the 7 day period ending
Thursday December 30. The NBM, which downscales to PRISM data,
has around 7 inches of QPF over the same period. This pattern will
make skiers and water supply people happy. Lesser amounts are
expected over the mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties.
Otherwise, there will be minimal to no precipitation. As the jet
stream drifts south, some colder air will move into the region
from the north. Looks as if the core of the cold air will stay to
the north of the region, and the grids trend towards seasonally
normal temperatures during this period.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021
...WSCONDS will be likely at all 3 TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB)
later this evening and throughout the early morning hours...
VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites throughout the
forecast period. Winds will become very strong and gusty at all
terminals later this afternoon and remain this way throughout the
evening and into the early morning hours. Be advised that there will
be WSCONDS at all locations as well, beginning at around 03Z to 04Z
for KALS and KCOS, and around 07Z for KPUB. These conditions should
end around 12Z to 13Z for KCOS and KPUB, and by 15Z at KALS. Winds
will weaken a bit by early tomorrow morning and then begin to
increase after daybreak again. They will continue to be strong and
gusty out of the SW going into the late morning tomorrow morning at
the end of the forecast period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for COZ059-061-
064-066-067.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Friday for
COZ072>075-078>080-086>088.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for COZ093-094-
097.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Friday for COZ073-075.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Friday for
COZ081-082-084-085.
&&
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...STEWARD