California, 2021

Drought in California, October 8 to 31, 2021

October 8 to 31, 2021 · NWS STO · 12 events in 12 counties and zones

Northern California typically experiences a wet season, October through May, and a dry season May through September. Last year's water year, October 2019 through September 2020, was one of the driest on records.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
12

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

Northern California typically experiences a wet season, October through May, and a dry season May through September. Last year's water year, October 2019 through September 2020, was one of the driest on records. This likely contributed to the U.S. Drought Monitor's decision to place portions of interior northern California into extreme drought on September 29, 2020. Portions of Shasta, Tehama, Butte, Glenn, Colusa, Yolo, Solano, Yuba, Nevada, and Sacramento counties remain in extreme drought. The rest of interior northern California was placed into severe drought (D2) on December 8; however, the state of California has not announced that these locations are in drought. On 4/21/2021 the Biden-Harris administration announced the formation of an Interagency Working Group to address worsening drought conditions in the West. On 5/10/2021 Governor Gavin Newsom significantly expanded his April 21 drought emergency proclamation to include Klamath River, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Tulare Lake Watershed counties where accelerated action is needed to protect public health, safety and the environment. In total, 41 counties are now under a drought state of emergency, representing 30 percent of the state’s population. By late June more wildlife was observed in urban interfaces than normal, notably bears and rattlesnakes, in search of wetter, cooler conditions. Widespread water theft has also been reported. On July 8th, the Governor of California asked for all Californian's including businesses, to voluntarily reduce water usage by 15%. On August 10th DWR reported the drought has led to a 123% increase in the number of acres burned this year, compared to 2020. DWR also reported that the low reservoir water levels have also affected energy supplies, agriculture, communities and state recreation parks.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 9:28 PM PST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 9:28 PM PST, 2 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1028 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Confidence slowly increasing for possible critical fire weather
conditions Monday and Tuesday with strong north winds and low
humidities. Leading up to this cool and unsettled weather Friday
with drying and warming into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Evening Update: Deep trof along the W Coast of NOAM interacting
with weakening surface trof and moisture plume emanating from
30N/130W. Sw trajectory is maintaining a narrow band of persistent
light showers mainly from the Nrn SJV into the Sierra. A band of
showers will likely continue in this area and may become more
widespread as the trof moves inland through about midday Fri. The
parent low near VCRISL is forecast to drop Swd along the coast on Fri
and into SOCAL on Sat digging the trof over the area. Behind this
feature, a positively tilted ridge will build into Norcal with drier
and milder wx for the weekend.

Persistent band of showers over zone 69 may lead to several inches
of snow accumulation above 7-8 KFT as snow levels lower. Will
contemplate issuing a snow advisory in the midnite package.  JHM

.Previous Discussion...

Some light precipitation moving across the area at this time.
Mainly over higher terrain from I-80 and north. Upper trough will
push across the area tonight and basically be moving on coast by
Friday morning. This will push areas of showers across the area
tonight. Showers in northern areas now will likely dissipate this
evening and more organized area develop south of I-80. This will
also bring snow to the higher terrain late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Did consider an early season snow advisory but not
thinking too much will accumulate and area meeting lower criteria
isn't too big. Heavier rain amounts should be up to a half inch in
upper foothills and mountains which should be hitting the sweet
spot for not too much rain in burn scars and beneficial to fires
in the area.

Showers will linger but be lighter Friday in higher terrain as
upper trough slowly pushes across the area. Expect cool
temperatures and mostly dry in the valley.

Friday night and Saturday...pattern turns more progressive with
short wave ridge building in for the weekend for a very mild
pattern with temperatures warming into the 70s Saturday and Sunday
in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...

Mild weekend weather will take a turn to windy (valley) Monday as
upper trough digs into western U.S. Sunday night into Monday.
Models in good agreement with this trough moving in Monday but
start to differ by Monday night through Wednesday. Despite this
models showing a moderate to high confidence of impactful winds
during the day Monday into Monday evening. ECMWF Ensembles
showing large area of mean winds gusting into lower 40s. GEFS
Ensemble not as strong in the upper 20s to around 30. Great time
to use the NBM which seems to be hitting the sweet spot in the
model with gust in the 30s to near 40. Airmass isn't super dry
Monday but dry enough to be hitting red flag criteria and we have
issued a fire weather watch starting Monday. Drier air pushes in
Monday night and Tuesday with humidities dropping into single
digits some areas. Strongest winds during this time should be
along the west valley and delta. Delta area may end up with the
strongest north winds pushing 50 mph gusts. Not seeing a strong
northeast push across the Sierra at this time thus watch is only
for valley.

Tuesday and beyond will be interesting with a pretty big different
in the GFS Means and ECMWF means. Cluster analyses of these
models would suggest ECMWFs slower and deeper solution may be the
better which would spell possibly strong winds Monday and
continuation a bit longer into Tuesday. Will have to figure out
those details moving forward. Rasch

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for northern interior
California over the next 24 hours. Can't rule out some localized
MVFR conditions over higher terrain in the vicinity of isolated
showers. General south to west surface wind gusts generally
at/below 15 kt, locally higher in higher terrain and near the
Delta.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in
Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below
1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Northern Sacramento Valley to
Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San Joaquin
Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-
Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-
Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far
Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.

&&

Event by event

12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Shasta Lake/North Shasta County

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Shasta Lake/North Shasta County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved much of Zone 13 to D3 and kept D4 in the far northwestern and southwestern portions of Shasta County that border Zone 13. The majority of zone 13 was in extreme drought (D3) with the remaining areas of Zone 13 remaining in exceptional drought (D4).The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of Zone 13 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. As of July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. Concern was noted that nearly all endangered winter-run Chinook salmon could perish this fall. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Burney Basin/Eastern Shasta County

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Burney Basin/Eastern Shasta County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved much of Zone 14 and kept D4 for the northern most portion of the zone which covers eastern Shasta County. The majority of Zone 14 was in extreme drought (D3) with the remaining areas of Zone 14 remaining in exceptional drought (D4). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 14 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. On July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Northern Sacramento Valley

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved the northwestern boundary of Zone 15, which includes portions of Shasta and Tehama counties, to exceptional drought (D3) and kept the remaining areas of Zone 15 in exceptional drought (D4). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. Some of the impacts the region continues to see include: reduced forage, decreased stock weights, selling of livestock, livestock stress, reduced grazing on public lands, reduced market price for cattle, and increased pricing for small grain and hay crops. The area also saw: decreased water allocation, hauling of water, increased groundwater use, land subsidence, low to dry rivers/ponds/springs, dry wells, and installation of new wells. All of zone 15 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. As of July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. An emergency resolution made on July 14th by the Tehama County Board of Supervisors continues that allows residents with dry wells to purchase water directly from the county. Farmers planted about 100,000 fewer acres of rice in the Sacramento Valley, leading to less food and increased potential for disease for birds migrating through the Pacific Flyway. Concern was noted that nearly all endangered winter-run Chinook salmon could perish this fall. Drought has also reduced California’s almond harvest by 13%. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. As of October 1st, The Redding area and Red Bluff recorded their record driest water year at 14.24 inches and 9.48 inches respectively. However, drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Central Sacramento Valley

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Central Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor continued to have all of zone 16 in exceptional drought (D4). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. Some of the impacts to the region included: reduced forage, decreased water allocation, decreased stock weights, selling of livestock, completely dry wells, hauling water, and low to dry rivers/ponds/springs. All of zone 16 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. On July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. The Nevada Irrigation District continues its mandatory 20 percent water-use reduction for both raw and treated water customers. Glenn County bottled water distribution program that started on July 12th for residents impacted by dry wells continues. The 45-day moratorium on agricultural well drilling in Glenn County that started on July 21st continues. Butte county continues a local drought emergency in the county declared in July. By July 23rd The Office of Emergency Services reported 117 dry wells, 75% of which were family homes. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. Concern was noted that nearly all endangered winter-run Chinook salmon could perish this fall. By July 23rd, all paved boat ramps on Lake Oroville were closed due to low water levels. On August 5th DWR State Water Project operations managers reported the Hyatt Powerplant at Lake Oroville is offline due to falling lake levels. This is the first time Hyatt Powerplant has gone offline as a result of low lake levels. Drought has also reduced California’s almond harvest by 13%. Farmers planted about 100,000 fewer acres of rice in the Sacramento Valley, leading to less food and increased potential for disease for birds migrating through the Pacific Flyway. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Southern Sacramento Valley

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Southern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor continued to have all of zone 17, which includes portions Yolo, Solano, Sutter, and Sacramento County in exceptional drought (D4). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. The area saw: reduced forage, decreased water allocation, decreased stock weights, selling of livestock, hauling of water, low rivers/ponds/springs, and installation of new wells. All of zone 17 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The Nevada Irrigation District continues its mandatory 20 percent water-use reduction for both raw and treated water customers. As of July 7th, the city of Sacramento asked residents and businesses to voluntarily reduce their water use by 10 percent. As of July 28th a local drought emergency proclaimed in Yolo County continues after one-fifth of the county’s wells reached an all-time low. Concern was noted that nearly all endangered winter-run Chinook salmon could perish this fall. Drought has also reduced California’s almond harvest by 13%. Farmers planted about 100,000 fewer acres of rice in the Sacramento Valley, leading to less food and increased potential for disease for birds migrating through the Pacific Flyway. Ranchers are seeing 10-25% reduction in herds due to feed shortages. By July, the waters of Folsom Lake receded low enough to reveal Mormon Island, a Gold Rush village, settled in the 1840s by prospectors. Starting August 9, Roseville residents are required to reduce their water use by 20%. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. As of October 1st, Sacramento Executive Airport recorded its record driest water year at 6.61 inches. However, drought conditions may improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Carquinez Strait and Delta

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Carquinez Strait and Delta forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept all of zone 18 in exceptional drought (D4). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. Farmers north and south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta will continue to receive no water from the Central Valley Project. All of zone 18 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The Delta cross channel gates remain closed. Concern was noted that nearly all endangered winter-run Chinook salmon could perish this fall. Drought has also reduced California’s almond harvest by 13%. Farmers planted about 100,000 fewer acres of rice in the Sacramento Valley, leading to less food and increased potential for disease for birds migrating through the Pacific Flyway. Ranchers are seeing 10-25% reduction in herds due to feed shortages. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed.

Drought, Northern San Joaquin Valley

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northern San Joaquin Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor kept the majority of Zone 19 in exceptional drought (D4) with only a small portion of the far southwestern part of Stanislaus County of Zone 19 in extreme drought (D3). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 19 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. Ranchers are seeing 10-25% reduction in herds due to feed shortages. Drought has also reduced California’s almond harvest by 13%. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed.

Drought, Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor continued exceptional drought (D4) for roughly half of zone 63, which covers western Tehama, Glenn, and Colusa counties, and kept all of the remaining parts of the Zone 63 in extreme drought (D3). The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 63 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. On July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Glenn County bottled water distribution program that started on July 12th for residents impacted by dry wells continues. The 45-day moratorium on agricultural well drilling in Glenn County that started on July 21st continues. An emergency resolution made on July 14th by the Tehama County Board of Supervisors continues that allows residents with dry wells to purchase water directly from the county. Ranchers also reported a 10-25% reduction in herds due to feed shortages. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed.

Drought, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved the drought condition of Zone 67 to extreme drought (D3), which covers the northeast foothills and portions of the Sacramento Valley. The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 66 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. As of July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Butte county continues a local drought emergency in the county declared in July. An emergency resolution made on July 14th by the Tehama County Board of Supervisors continues that allows residents with dry wells to purchase water directly from the county. Ranchers also reported a 10-25% reduction in herds due to feed shortages. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, Motherlode/Camptonville to Groveland

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Motherlode/Camptonville to Groveland forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved the northeastern portion of Zone 67 to extreme drought (D3) and kept the remaining areas of Zone 67 in exceptional drought (D4), which covers the Motherlode. The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. The area continued to see: reduced forage, decreased water allocation, decreased stock weights, and hauling of water. All of zone 67 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The Nevada Irrigation District continues its mandatory 20 percent water-use reduction for both raw and treated water customers. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed.

Drought, Mt Shasta/Western Plumas County

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Mt Shasta/Western Plumas County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved the drought condition of Zone 68 to extreme drought (D3), which includes the eastern portions of Tehama, Butte and Shasta counties (Lassen National Park) and western Plumas County. The zone continued to see much of the same impacts already effecting the region. They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 68 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. The countywide drought emergency declared by the Shasta County Board of Supervisors in June continues, including the water conservation program. As of July 1st the Nevada Irrigation District approved a mandatory 20 percent water-use reduction for both raw and treated water customers. As of July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Butte county continues a local drought emergency in the county declared in July. An emergency resolution made on July 14th by the Tehama County Board of Supervisors continues that allows residents with dry wells to purchase water directly from the county. August 11th DWR, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, directed $25 million to 10 small water systems including Shasta County. The funds will support a range of projects including emergency water system repairs, infrastructure such as new wells and water storage tanks, and improvements to intakes and distribution systems. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

Drought, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

When
October 8, 12:00 AM PST to October 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

For the month of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor improved the drought condition of much of Zone 69 which covers the upper foothills into the west slope of the Sierra Nevada. The northwestern portion of Zone 69 was improved to extreme drought (D3), the far eastern portions of Placer and El Dorado counties to severe drought (D2) and kept the remainder of the southern portion of the zone in exceptional drought (D4). They continue to mention impacts to: agriculture, water supplies, recreation, and ecosystems. All of zone 69 is in the official drought emergency proclamation. On July 1st, fire restrictions on public lands were put in place until further notice. Effective on August 19, the State Water Resources Control Board released an emergency curtailment order that would deprive thousands of farmers of the use of rivers and streams in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed. Drought conditions may continue to improve with the start of the new water year that started October 1st.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in California, October 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 990604, 990605, 990609, 990612, 990737, 990738, 990739, 990740, 990741, 990742, 990743, 990746.