High Wind in California, April 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1252 PM PDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low over the region will lead to elevated winds through
Wednesday for much of the area along with a noticeable cool down.
Breezy, dry weather will lead to critical fire weather conditions
for much of the area today which will linger over Mohave County
on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday.

A closed upper level low will position itself over northern
Nevada later tonight where it will remain situated through
Wednesday night before shifting eastward into Colorado on
Thursday.

As mentioned previously, the rapid deepening of a sfc low in the
area will be the focus for where and how strong winds will set up
through tonight. Fluctuations in the location of the low will
lead to minor variability in where strongest winds will
materialize but regardless, we are expecting strong winds with dry
conditions. The High Wind Warning remains in place for the Owens
Valley and Sierra as well as the western Mojave Desert where
impacts in the form of strong crosswinds and lower visibilities
due of the blowing dust are expected. West to southwest gusts
around 60 mph are possible in these areas. Much of rest of the
area will be under a Wind Advisory today for slightly lower winds
gusting 40-55 mph through this evening. Lingering strong winds
will be possible across the northern half of San Bernardino County
into late tonight so have extended the Wind products for these
areas through early Wednesday morning. If winds wind down earlier,
the next shifts may need to cut the products slightly earlier.
Dry, breezy conditions will also lead to dangerous fire weather
conditions which are expected to linger into tonight. By
Wednesday, the sfc low will shift eastward allowing local
gradients to loosen and winds will respond by dropping to lower
speeds than we will see today. With this being said, it will still
be breezy on Wednesday with stronger winds over the western
Mojave Desert gusting around 40 mph and Mohave County where gusts
are expected to be between 30-40 mph. Continued elevated fire
weather concerns remain in these areas and a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for a majority of Mohave County. Have left San
Bernardino County out of the Red Flag Warning due to higher
duration thresholds for criteria in these zones which will be
difficult to reach as moisture levels increase late in the
afternoon. This system will be fairly dry with only scattered
showers limited to Lincoln and Esmeralda counties as well as the
Sierra and White Mtns on Wednesday.

By Thursday, the weak cold front which remained draped over the
region on Wednesday will get a push from the exiting low and exit
southward leaving breezy, north to northwesterly flow over the
area.

Temps will drop about 10 to 15 degrees from today to tomorrow
bringing max temps back down closer to normal for the next few
days.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

By Friday, the broad area of low pressure over NV/UT will weaken a
bit leaving generally north to northwest flow overhead. Besides
breezy north winds, little impacts are expected through the long
term. Cluster Analysis is still indicating that a high amplitude
ridge will build over the west coast. This ridge doesn't look
particularly strong, resulting in only gradual temperature increases
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry, breezy weather will continue critical fire weather conditions
through tonight, lingering across portions of the area on
Wednesday. Strongest west to southwest winds will be focused over
the western Mojave Desert, eastern Sierra, and Owens Valley
through tonight with critical winds across much of the remainder
of the area. Winds will be on a downward trend overnight into
Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, lingering gusty west to southwest
winds will remain over Mohave County as well as western San
Bernardino County where fire weather concerns continue. Dry
conditions with lesser winds are expected Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty southwest winds will continue
through the evening hours before gradually decreasing late tonight.
Gusts exceeding 35 knots are likely through the evening along with
patchy blowing dust.  Winds will remain elevated out of the
southwest overnight with gusts of 25 to 30 knots returning
Wednesday. Skies will be mostly clear through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty winds are expected area wide through this evening
and overnight, with the strongest winds gusting to 40 knots or more
near KDAG and KBIH. Pockets of wind shear below 2kft AGL are likely
along with moderate to severe low level turbulence. Winds will
gradually ease late tonight but breezy conditions will continue into
Wednesday. Areas of blowing dust and locally reduced visibility are
also expected today.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Guillet
LONG TERM...Kryston
AVIATION...Outler

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